Thread: Dutch Election Saw Anti Immigration Pro Assimilation Vote

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AMSTERDAM—A surge of support for a far-right party with an anti-immigration focus has left the Netherlands facing the prospect of a hamstrung four-party coalition government.

Geert Wilders's Freedom Party—which went from nine to 24 seats in the 150-member Parliament—is likely to prove a thorn in the side of any coalition government that emerges from Wednesday's elections.

The surge in support for the Freedom Party trumped most forecasts and left mainstream parties with difficult coalition talks that economists fear could mean delays and compromises on budget cuts and economic reform.

"The fact that Wilders's Freedom Party gained more than pre-election polls had forecast could be partly explained by voters being reluctant to admit they will vote for a controversial candidate due to social desirability reasons," said Alfred Pijpers, a senior political researcher at Clingendael, the Netherlands Institute of International Relations.

The left-leaning Labor and pro-business VVD parties are neck and neck after most votes have been counted, which could lead to lengthy coalition talks. Video courtesy of Reuters.

The phenomenon is known as the Bradley effect, after Tom Bradley, the Los Angeles mayor who lost the 1982 California governor's race despite being ahead in voter polls. Mr. Pijpers added that Mr. Wilders's popularity of could further be attributed to a moderation of his tone during the last weeks of the campaign. "He started to smile more and let go of his strong anti-Islam rhetoric," Mr. Pijpers said.

Regardless of the reason for Mr. Wilders's surge the success of the Freedom Party makes for a complicated election aftermath, analysts said. "Current election results mean no major decisions will be taken in the coming months, which could be a negative," said Royal Bank of Scotland analyst Mark Pieter de Boer. "Worst-case scenario would be a fighting coalition delaying reforms and potentially resulting in re-elections in one or two years' time."

The Freedom Party's pledge to ban Muslims from entering the country, deny social support to other immigrants and introduce a tax on head scarves drowned out calls by mainstream parties for budget reforms and debt reduction to spare the Netherlands from the worst as Europe's debt crisis continues.
According to nearly final results, the center-right Liberal Party of Mark Rutte and the center-left Labor Party took 31 and 30 seats respectively and are seen as the most likely to form the core of a common government. It appeared early Thursday that Mr. Rutte would take the lead in attempts to form a government, as the Liberals became the largest grouping for the first time in Dutch history. In the previous Parliament, the Liberal Party held 22 seats while Labor had 33 seats.

Acting Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende resigned Wednesday night after his ruling Christian Democratic party lost 20 of its 41 seats. The previous government, a three-party coalition of center and left parties, collapsed in February after internal disagreement over the deployment of Dutch forces in Afghanistan.

In the wake of Wednesday's election, the most likely coalition combination would be an unwieldy four-party grouping of Mr. Rutte's Liberals with a center-left trio of Labor and the smaller Democratic Liberal and Green parties.
Most mainstream parties, except Mr. Rutte's Liberals, have ruled out bringing Mr. Wilders and his far-right Freedom Party into a new government. But Mr. Wilders's new popular support has added political heft to his demands to be among the candidates for a future coalition government. "The political establishment can't ignore us any longer," Mr. Wilders said Wednesday night.
Indicating his eagerness to play a part in the coalition talks, Mr. Wilders said he is willing to let go of his earlier stance to keep the pension age at 65, something he forcefully advocated during the election campaign. In order to deal with the aging population and the burden it will put on the state finances, most other parties are pushing to increase the pension age to 67.

The Liberal Party could conceivably form a government in a center-right coalition with the Christian Democrats and the Freedom Party. Together, the three parties would command 76 seats. The Liberals share the Freedom Party's tough stance on immigration, but the two groupings are miles apart on economic issues.

Political analysts observed that if Mr. Wilders isn't in the government he will have another four years of taking shots at the government on sensitive immigration issues.

The election results mean the next government could have trouble executing the reform agenda put forth by Mr. Rutte's Liberal Party. Mr. Rutte seeks to reduce the government's budget deficit by €20 billion ($24 billion) by 2015, while Labor wants to see only an €11 billion cut over the same period. The country's deficit is currently 6.6% of a gross domestic product estimated to reach €585 billion this year.

—Roberta Cowan contributed to this article.
Write to Anna Marij van der Meulen at Anna.VanDerMeulen@dowjones.com

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