Early Voting Data Shows African-American Turnout Dropping
Early Voting Data Shows African-American Turnout Dropping
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31 Oct 2016
A blizzard of early reports show that by early voting by pro-Democratic African-Americans has dropped significantly compared to 2012, giving a boost to Donald Trump’s prospects in critical swing-states, such as North Carolina and Ohio.
In North Carolina, early voting by African-Americans is sharply down, so “you will see a very heavy push in this state for the African-American vote by Hilary Clinton to try to make up some of deficit,” said Michael Bitzer, a professor of politics and history at Catawba College, in Salisbury, N.C.
The push will likely include fly-ins by the Democrats’ most popular speakers, he said, adding “I would say [Hillary] Clinton, I would say President [Barack] Obama, probably another visit by Michelle Obama.”
Nationally, “African-American enthusiasm has dipped compared with that in 2012,” according to the New York Times. That’s “a surprising and disquieting development for Democrats who believed Trump’s racial appeals and flirtations with the birther movement would generate more urgency,” the Times reported. For example, in the two Virginia districts with the largest percentage of African American adults, early voting has dropped by more than 50 percent, the Times said.
In Ohio, the decline of early voting in heavily Democratic African-American districts is causing worry for Democrats — and a shift of resources into the low-turnout areas. Hillary Clinton, according to the Blade newspaper, “returns to Ohio on Monday with early-vote rallies planned in Cleveland and Cincinnati, and President Obama will rally in Columbus on Tuesday, also to encourage that early-vote turnout.”
In Florida, “the bad news for Clinton/good news for Trump is that African-Americans and millenials are voting considerably lighter — so far – than four years ago,” the Tampa Bay Times reported Oct. 31.
Daniel Smith, a political science professor in Florida noted the rising level of early voting among whites and Hispanics, compared to to African-Americans.
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