Thread: Strategy Memo from the Romney Camp.

TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: ALEX GAGE, STRATEGIST, ROMNEY FOR PRESIDENT
DATE: JANUARY 31, 2008
RE: THE CONSERVATIVE VOTE

As we move towards February 5th, it's worth taking a close look back at exit polling from the past few primaries. The coalitions that John McCain assembled in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida have been strikingly similar - and are strikingly tenuous. Public polling shows McCain ahead in many states, but we are now in a two-man race and a few points' movement among conservatives is all that's needed to tip the scales in favor of Gov. Romney.

In all three states where he was victorious, McCain's margin of victory rested on moderates, self-identified independents, and voters who disapprove of the Bush administration. None of these groups is a majority of the Republican electorate. In fact, every GOP primary this year has been at least 55% conservative, 61% Republican, and 50% supportive of the Bush administration - explaining why McCain has failed to win more than 36% of the vote in any of them.



In Florida, a state where McCain spent nearly $2 million on paid media in the final two weeks; had the endorsement of the state's sitting Republican governor, the Republican senator, and five GOP congressmen; and benefited from an electorate where one in three voters was over the age of 65, he failed to come within 8 points of Gov. Romney among conservative voters.

In fact, according to exit poll data, if Gov. Romney had won conservatives in Florida 41%-25% over McCain, rather than 37%-29% - just a four-point shift - he would have won the state. Former Giuliani and Thompson supporters in February 5th states will be looking for a new candidate over the next week, and it will not take very many conservatives moving to Romney to disrupt McCain's victory formula.

The McCain formula for success worked in a divided field when conservatives were fractured, but even a small coalescence of conservatives around Gov. Romney would reveal his support as a coalition too small to win the nomination of the Republican party.

Conservatives, self-identified Republicans, and voters who approve of President Bush are likely to be majorities of the electorate in all of the February 5th states. It is therefore easy to see how we defeat McCain in a two-main race by focusing on traditional Republican primary voters.

We still have an uphill battle in front of us - the mainstream media is ready to anoint John McCain and he will have advantages in many states from running for president for the past eight years - but Gov. Romney has a clear path to victory on February 5th and beyond.

Thanks for posting.

OOPS! It's a 3 man race...they forgot to add Ron Paul. He's going all the way to a brokered convention!

According to this analysis, one of the reasons Romney is loosing is because he has overtly cuddled up with George Bush! Not smart.

W

I think people can live with Bush on the war issue to a point

I think his ratings went south big time for his stand on
immigration and refusing to stop the hoard

I think if he would have actually pushed and had
a years worth of meanful work done on the fence and
really ramped up enforcement , the story might be different

FWIW: I just heard an analysis on MSNBC of Super Tuesday states that could be critical for Romney staying competitive in the race. They were Tennessee, Illinois and Missouri. He's expected to do pretty well in Alaska, Colorado, Minnesota, North Dakota, Utah and West Virginia. Hopefully he'll get a decent share of delegates in California. Massachusetts could go McCain's way.

I'm a native Tennessean with family and friends there, and I'll be focusing tonight and tomorrow on getting the word out about McCain and Huckabee, particularly on the issue of illegal immigration. I'm sure any Tennesseans on board here know how it has impacted the state.

Did anyone listen to Hannity today? I was pretty optimistic after last night's debate until I heard what the zogby and rausseman polls are saying. They are saying Romney has a very slim chance. Hannity is saying that McCain, a washington insider, is pulling in all his favors from his 26 year career. And also, Huckabee is going to ruin it for Romney.

So, in the end, we can all thank Mike Huckabee for destroying America.

I feel sorry for those of you with kids and situations that will prevent you from leaving this country. I'm outta here within 5 years if McCain or Hillary is president.

Saki, I am a Tennessean and I am very well aware of how adversely illegal immigration has impacted Tennessee.

I have lived in Tennessee since July 1991.

I have already cast my vote for twelve (12) delegates pledged to Mitt Romney.

Mitt Romney has performed well. As a whole, the national media proclaimed John McCain to be the frontrunner when Mitt Romney had more votes and more delegates than him.

Originally Posted by TexasCowgirl

Did anyone listen to Hannity today? I was pretty optimistic after last night's debate until I heard what the zogby and rausseman polls are saying. They are saying Romney has a very slim chance. Hannity is saying that McCain, a washington insider, is pulling in all his favors from his 26 year career. And also, Huckabee is going to ruin it for Romney.

So, in the end, we can all thank Mike Huckabee for destroying America.

I feel sorry for those of you with kids and situations that will prevent you from leaving this country. I'm outta here within 5 years if McCain or Hillary is president.

Laters. I feel sorry for the fools that think, "Oohh! I must leave this country! Boohooohooo!". Take a box of tissues while you're at it. This country is still the best in the world no matter who's president. And if you just can't see that than you're not an American. Leave already!

Originally Posted by ALIPAC

According to this analysis, one of the reasons Romney is loosing is because he has overtly cuddled up with George Bush! Not smart.

W

Ill vote for him given little choice but for me he just is "flat"!