Has “Trump fever” broken?

Has “Trump fever” broken?

POSTED AT 10:01 AM ON FEBRUARY 2, 2016 BY ED MORRISSEY


Flipping channels last night, the consensus forming in the wake of the Republican caucuses in Iowa cast Donald Trump as the yuuuuuge loser of the evening. Trump underperformed the polls and got beaten by the man he had most seriously targeted for his barbs over the past month, Ted Cruz. By losing in Iowa’s caucuses, Trump had lost the veneer of invincibility — or as William Whalen put it for Fox News, “Trump fever has broken.”

Well, maybe, but this isn’t exactly a solid diagnosis:

Mister Trump, Meet Mister Tyson. The former boxer is credited with saying that “everyone has a plan ‘til they get punched in the mouth.”
On Monday night, Trump was on the receiving end of said punch.
Yes, the turnout turned out to be a record high, as Trump had promised. But not all the newcomers flocked in his direction, as he also prophesized.
According to Fox News entrance polls, the late-deciders broke first to Marco Rubio, then Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, and then Trump – one reason why Rubio finished a close third (much closer than expected) to the flamboyant developer.

One way to look at Trump’s bad night: going into the caucuses, Trump stood at 28.6 percent in the Real Clear Politics Average. He finished with only 24 percent [24.3, actually –Ed] on Caucus night.

This was one of the more puzzling arguments offered last night by talking heads as well. The variation between those two numbers (4.3 points) is probably outside of a traditional margin of error in polling, but only just. Similarly, Cruz’ result (27.7%) lands just within a traditional MoE of his polling average (23.9%, 3.8 points lower). The only candidate to clearly outperform his polling was Marco Rubio, whose finish was 6.2 points higher than his RCP average of 16.9%over the past month.

The difference in Iowa was probably ground organization and perhaps lingering annoyance over Trump’s decision to bail on the final debate in Iowa. The former favored Cruz, but the latter might have pushed late deciders to go to Rubio’s corner. It was a tactical error by Trump, to be sure, but hardly a fatal one. Trump ended up with one less delegate than Cruz, and the same as Rubio — five. Trump didn’t win Iowa, but other than for his reputation, he didn’t really need to win; he just needed to stay competitive. And the reasons for that are New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Now let’s look at New Hampshire, whose primary takes place a week from today. The RCP average there has Trump in front of his nearest competitors (Cruz and John Kasich) by nearly twenty-two points. Other than two ARG polls in this period, Trump’s lead hasn’t been in single digits since October. If the Trump celebrity/earned-media strategy creates a similar fade next week as it did yesterday, Trump might end up scoring 28% to around 16% for his nearest competitor. Trump’s lead in South Carolina is almost as large as in New Hampshire.

The only real risk for Trump this week is if everyone else but Cruz and Rubio got out of the race — and Kasich, Jeb Bush, and Chris Christie have aimed at New Hampshire all along.

Now, it’s possible things can change for Trump by losing in Iowa. He dumped a barrage of cheap shots on Cruz, which apparently backfired to some degree, and Marco Rubio’s sudden strength will be a signal to the Bush/Christie/Kasich wing that voters may have set their sights on the future rather than the past. The race will consolidate, and that’s to Trump’s disadvantage. Don’t look to New Hampshire to see those dynamics take place, but to South Carolina, where the campaigns with good ground organizations have time to exploit them more fully. At the same time, it’s far too early to tell whether “Trump fever” has broken, or just been tempered with some tough-but-surmountable political reality.

http://hotair.com/archives/2016/02/0...tm_campaign=nl

Losing Iowa cost Trump 1 delegate. He and Rubio got 7 and Cruz got 8.

If anyone thinks 1 delegate is worth writing all these articles about, it's probably because they don't know that the difference between winning Iowa and coming in second or third in Iowa is the value of 1 delegate.

Iowa hasn't picked a winner on the Republican ballot for 4 elections, 16 years, and due to the peculiarity of both the Caucus system and their religious conservative talk-radio show controlled process, I doubt they have this time either. I mean unless you had on "your Armor of God" how could you listen to a Ted Cruz speech for an hour? Even during the 1 Delegate 37 Minute Victory Speech, Steve King looked desperate to go to the bathroom after 5 minutes into it.

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Originally Posted by Judy

Losing Iowa cost Trump 1 delegate. He and Rubio got 7 and Cruz got 8.

If anyone thinks 1 delegate is worth writing all these articles about, it's probably because they don't know that the difference between winning Iowa and coming in second or third in Iowa is the value of 1 delegate.

Iowa hasn't picked a winner on the Republican ballot for 4 elections, 16 years, and due to the peculiarity of both the Caucus system and their religious conservative talk-radio show controlled process, I doubt they have this time either. I mean unless you had on "your Armor of God" how could you listen to a Ted Cruz speech for an hour? Even during the 1 Delegate 37 Minute Victory Speech, Steve King looked desperate to go to the bathroom after 5 minutes into it.

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This isn't about 1 delegate or 10 delegates. It's about not living up to expectations. Trump led all the polls going into the primary, but didn't pull out the victory. I must have seen 20 polls posted on here over the last few days, but it was all for not. This whole experience just proves the small polling numbers these poll takers use just can't be trusted. Personally, I'm more concerned about Rubio sneaking up the way he did and less concerned about where Cruz and Trump ended up. Many of us expected a tough battle between them, but Rubio ..... ouch!

Oh, and maybe King did have need of a head call. ;-)

Well maybe not, "all for naught". Polls are scientific evidence if conducted in a scientific manner. And when there's a conflict between evidence and election results, one queries. Carson and Trump are querying. In fact, Trump is calling fraud and demanding Cruz's results nullified.

Not living up to expectations is not an issue for Trump Supporters. We think he won and was cheated out of it by Cruz and his tricks. It's all heating up now. Stay tuned. I've already posted by fraud call post early Tuesday. Maybe someone is reading it!

Yesterday there were over 5000 guests on this forum.

It's actually catching on out here in Illegalville. Although CA will never be red again and not that it'll matter this election, but I see more Dems daily seeing Trump as viable alternative

At this point if Trump loses, the elites will say it was because of his tough stance against illegal immigration and Muslim refugees and they will use that claim to destroy our movement.

W

Then it's time to be All-In for Trump.

STAY TRUE!! STAY TRUMP!!

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Originally Posted by Judy

Well maybe not, "all for naught". Polls are scientific evidence if conducted in a scientific manner. And when there's a conflict between evidence and election results, one queries. Carson and Trump are querying. In fact, Trump is calling fraud and demanding Cruz's results nullified.

Not living up to expectations is not an issue for Trump Supporters. We think he won and was cheated out of it by Cruz and his tricks. It's all heating up now. Stay tuned. I've already posted by fraud call post early Tuesday. Maybe someone is reading it!

Yesterday there were over 5000 guests on this forum.

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All I see is sour grapes. Trump disappointed me big time here. I was very pleased with his somewhat humble speech after his 2nd place show in Iowa. I thought he was dignified and presidential like. Of course I shouldn't be surprised that Trump latched on to the first thing he could find to start whining, saying he was cheated, etc., etc. Not surprised, but disappointed.

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Originally Posted by ALIPAC

At this point if Trump loses, the elites will say it was because of his tough stance against illegal immigration and Muslim refugees and they will use that claim to destroy our movement.

W

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Cruz also has a tough stance on illegal immigration and has called for a ban on Muslim Syrian refugees. So, I would agree with you if anyone other than Cruz gets the nomination. Howeve, if Cruz receives the nomination over Trump, there will be no argument (IMO).

There will be more than an argument. Who do you think is behind Trump challenging the Iowa Caucus vote? It's Trump Supporters. Trump Supporters are the ones upset with what happened. Also Carson Supporters. But if you think voter fraud is okay, you're entitled to your opinion, but most Americans don't like to see that in our elections, whether it's our candidate like Trump being cheated, or another Republican candidate like Carson and possibly others were cheated by these dirty tactics, or whether it's a Democratic candidate like Bernie Sanders who loses Iowa over coin tosses?

We owe our election process including the primary process a lot better than at least 3 examples of voter and election fraud in a single primary caucus plus the bull that went on in the Democratic vote in Iowa that required not one but 6 coin tosses? This is ridiculous. I hope Trump Supporters in Iowa raise holy hell and get tot he bottom of what happened in the Iowa Caucus and hold those responsible fully accountable for it.

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Originally Posted by Judy

There will be more than an argument. Who do you think is behind Trump challenging the Iowa Caucus vote? It's Trump Supporters. Trump Supporters are the ones upset with what happened. Also Carson Supporters. But if you think voter fraud is okay, you're entitled to your opinion, but most Americans don't like to see that in our elections, whether it's our candidate like Trump being cheated, or another Republican candidate like Carson and possibly others were cheated by these dirty tactics, or whether it's a Democratic candidate like Bernie Sanders who loses Iowa over coin tosses?

We owe our election process including the primary process a lot better than at least 3 examples of voter and election fraud in a single primary caucus plus the bull that went on in the Democratic vote in Iowa that required not one but 6 coin tosses? This is ridiculous. I hope Trump Supporters in Iowa raise holy hell and get tot he bottom of what happened in the Iowa Caucus and hold those responsible fully accountable for it.

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Judy, this isn't voter fraud and the whining will not make it so. In the worst case scenario it was a misunderstanding. King said it "looked" like Carson was pulling out because of something he heard about Carson going home. Furthermore, Cruz has apologized for the misunderstanding. There was absolutely not intent of deception by Cruz here. He was not the one that sent the tweet out and is not directly responsible for it being sent.

I'm a Trump supporter too, however, I don't see anything to the accusations. Considering Trump came in 2nd, I just don't see that the potential negative publicity of being considered a whiner as worth it.

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Carson looks like he is out. Iowans need to know before they vote. Most will go to Cruz, I hope. https://t.co/lW5Js50EMA
— Steve King (@SteveKingIA) February 2, 2016

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http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016...tricks-n509396

This is from a member of the United States Congress, from Iowa, telling everyone on Twitter than Carson is out, they need to know so hopefully they vote for Cruz instead. "Iowans need to know before they vote".

Is this how Steve King operates in the US Congress? Is this the type of person we hail as one of our guys? Why didn't he text the Carson campaign and ask "are you out?" This was taking a simple report by CNN that Carson was going home to Florida to get a change of clothes as Carson suspending his campaign? No, that is not a mistake. That's a fraud telling "Iowans need to know before they vote" and hope they vote for Cruz, voters stuck in a Caucus line with no way of finding out what the hell he's talking about, having to stand there and trust a member of the US Congress. No, that's fraud. Fraud has many faces, and this is one of them.

Steve King's lies about Trump and the endorsements on Caucus day, that's fraud and slander. Ted Cruz's mailer, that's fraud. Maybe in some different world of liars, thieves and thugs this is just business as usual, but in my world, that's fraud and that's what I called it before Trump did, so I imagine thousands of Trump Supporters called it the same which is why Trump is making a deal of it, as he should.

Apologies aren't worth the time it takes to listen to it in something as important as an election to select the next President of the United States.

Maybe people should ask Steve King why isn't he moving his bill in Congress to stop anchor baby citizenship through the Congress instead of spending all this time being a dirty politician in the Cruz campaign? How many years have these so-called "our guys" been introducing bills that could solve some problems and letting them rot in committee?

I think we need to wake up and smell the crap on both sides of the aisle. We've been duped.

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Originally Posted by Judy

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016...tricks-n509396

This is from a member of the United States Congress, from Iowa, telling everyone on Twitter than Carson is out, they need to know so hopefully they vote for Cruz instead. "Iowans need to know before they vote".

Is this how Steve King operates in the US Congress? Is this the type of person we hail as one of our guys? Why didn't he text the Carson campaign and ask "are you out?" This was taking a simple report by CNN that Carson was going home to Florida to get a change of clothes as Carson suspending his campaign? No, that is not a mistake. That's a fraud telling "Iowans need to know before they vote" and hope they vote for Cruz, voters stuck in a Caucus line with no way of finding out what the hell he's talking about, having to stand there and trust a member of the US Congress. No, that's fraud. Fraud has many faces, and this is one of them.

Steve King's lies about Trump and the endorsements on Caucus day, that's fraud and slander. Ted Cruz's mailer, that's fraud. Maybe in some different world of liars, thieves and thugs this is just business as usual, but in my world, that's fraud and that's what I called it before Trump did, so I imagine thousands of Trump Supporters called it the same which is why Trump is making a deal of it, as he should.

Apologies aren't worth the time it takes to listen to it in something as important as an election to select the next President of the United States.

Maybe people should ask Steve King why isn't he moving his bill in Congress to stop anchor baby citizenship through the Congress instead of spending all this time being a dirty politician in the Cruz campaign? How many years have these so-called "our guys" been introducing bills that could solve some problems and letting them rot in committee?

I think we need to wake up and smell the crap on both sides of the aisle. We've been duped.

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This still was not voter fraud. To successfully sue on election fraud the accuser would have to prove the results were altered through deception or misrepresentation and that he sustained injury. It's easy to whine that this happened, but it's all together another thing to prove it. Rep. King did not say Carson was definitely out, he said it looked like he was. In his perception it may very well have seemed that way. Nope, there is no provable voter fraud here and anyone that attempts to make an issue of it is just spinning their wheels needlessly.

Attacking Rep. Steve King in the vicious way you have does not do our cause any good, especially when you have no proof that he purposely set out to deceive us. You're basically telling the world (or at least all ALIPAC forum readers) that Rep. Steve King is trash and can't be trusted. Rep. King has been a huge ally to our cause and has always stood by us. To denigrate him publicly and attempt to embarrass him in this manner over something so trivial is to forget all he has done and/or attempted to do for our cause.

Trump and Carson both sustained injury from voter fraud. This was a Caucus, so it's a private matter between the candidates and the party. You lie about Ben Carson suspending his campaign during a Caucus vote, that's a lie with consequences. You send a fraudulent mailer through the mail that's voter fraud through mail fraud. You use your position as a member of the US Congress to tell the public on Caucus day that "I know things" and accuse Trump of buying endorsements, that's fraud. These are at minimum torte cases that impact the fair election process for selecting nominees for President of the United States.

But that's fine if it doesn't bother you. But, it's bothering a lot of people, including Trump and Carson Supporters.

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Originally Posted by Judy

Trump and Carson both sustained injury from voter fraud. This was a Caucus, so it's a private matter between the candidates and the party. You lie about Ben Carson suspending his campaign during a Caucus vote, that's a lie with consequences. You send a fraudulent mailer through the mail that's voter fraud through mail fraud. You use your position as a member of the US Congress to tell the public on Caucus day that "I know things" and accuse Trump of buying endorsements, that's fraud. These are at minimum torte cases that impact the fair election process for selecting nominees for President of the United States.

But that's fine if it doesn't bother you. But, it's bothering a lot of people, including Trump and Carson Supporters.

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There is no voter fraud here. Furthermore, you're placing words in King's mouth. He did not say Carson was definitely suspending his campaign ....... please read the tweet YOU provided here on this forum.

I didn't say King said Carson was "definitely suspending his campaign". As you point out, I posted exactly what he said. Cruz is cooked. No one wants a cheat, no one wants a thug. We've already had enough of those.

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Originally Posted by Judy

I didn't say King said Carson was "definitely suspending his campaign". As you point out, I posted exactly what he said. Cruz is cooked. No one wants a cheat, no one wants a thug. We've already had enough of those.

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No, Cruz is not cooked. Cruz didn't send the tweet, nor did he sanction the sending of it.

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I didn't say King said Carson was "definitely suspending his campaign".

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There is no denying your implications.

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No one wants a cheat, no one wants a thug. We've already had enough of those.

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Cruz didn't cheat and he certainly didn't show himself as a thug. Actually Trump has been more of a thug than Cruz. If would be so nice if you would just stick with the facts and minus all the senseless name calling.

Cruz is a crook, a liar and a thug. That's my opinion and it's not debatable. You're free to disagree. When you're a Harvard attorney who can't file a form and disclose his loans, who doesn't know that he's not eligible to run for the office, he doesn't know he's a Canadian citizen, he doesn't know that when you testify that you support comprehensive immigration reform and legalization of illegal aliens that that's what it means unless you're lying to the Senate and the American Public, he doesn't know that his National Co-Chair is tweeting Caucus voters while they're in Caucus when he's on the Tweet list, he supports accusing Trump of buying endorsements through his National Co-chairman, and this is just what we know about so far. There will be much more.

To me, Cruz is a crook, he's a liar, he's dishonest not just in election work, not just in the Iowa Caucus, he crooked to the core.

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Originally Posted by Judy

Cruz is a crook, a liar and a thug. That's my opinion and it's not debatable. You're free to disagree. When you're a Harvard attorney who can't file a form and disclose his loans, who doesn't know that he's not eligible to run for the office, he doesn't know he's a Canadian citizen, he doesn't know that when you testify that you support comprehensive immigration reform and legalization of illegal aliens that that's what it means unless you're lying to the Senate and the American Public, he doesn't know that his National Co-Chair is tweeting Caucus voters while they're in Caucus when he's on the Tweet list, he supports accusing Trump of buying endorsements through his National Co-chairman, and this is just what we know about so far. There will be much more.

To me, Cruz is a crook, he's a liar, he's dishonest not just in election work, not just in the Iowa Caucus, he crooked to the core.

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I should expect nothing less from someone who feels Cruz is a huge threat to Trump. I disagree with you 100%. Time to wake up and realize Cruz isn't our enemy, the establishment candidate is.

They're all threats to us, except Trump. But if you want to support Cruz, that's your choice, same as mine to support Trump. You can continue to attack Trump and I will continue to attack Cruz. That's our political process.

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Originally Posted by Judy

They're all threats to us, except Trump. But if you want to support Cruz, that's your choice, same as mine to support Trump. You can continue to attack Trump and I will continue to attack Cruz. That's our political process.

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Once again we disagree. Cruz is not our enemy. Personally, I don't think we should attack either. Sure, facts should be revealed, but that doesn't mean we should attack our only two chances to turn our immigration system around. Your many and frequently unjust attacks on Cruz are the only reason I feel it is necessary to offer a defense for Cruz.

Yes, we completely disagree.