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Thread: Has “Trump fever” broken?

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  1. #1
    MW
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    Has “Trump fever” broken?

    Has “Trump fever” broken?

    POSTED AT 10:01 AM ON FEBRUARY 2, 2016 BY ED MORRISSEY


    Flipping channels last night, the consensus forming in the wake of the Republican caucuses in Iowa cast Donald Trump as the yuuuuuge loser of the evening. Trump underperformed the polls and got beaten by the man he had most seriously targeted for his barbs over the past month, Ted Cruz. By losing in Iowa’s caucuses, Trump had lost the veneer of invincibility — or as William Whalen put it for Fox News, “Trump fever has broken.”

    Well, maybe, but this isn’t exactly a solid diagnosis:

    Mister Trump, Meet Mister Tyson. The former boxer is credited with saying that “everyone has a plan ‘til they get punched in the mouth.”
    On Monday night, Trump was on the receiving end of said punch.
    Yes, the turnout turned out to be a record high, as Trump had promised. But not all the newcomers flocked in his direction, as he also prophesized.
    According to Fox News entrance polls, the late-deciders broke first to Marco Rubio, then Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, and then Trump – one reason why Rubio finished a close third (much closer than expected) to the flamboyant developer.

    One way to look at Trump’s bad night: going into the caucuses, Trump stood at 28.6 percent in the Real Clear Politics Average. He finished with only 24 percent [24.3, actually –Ed] on Caucus night.

    This was one of the more puzzling arguments offered last night by talking heads as well. The variation between those two numbers (4.3 points) is probably outside of a traditional margin of error in polling, but only just. Similarly, Cruz’ result (27.7%) lands just within a traditional MoE of his polling average (23.9%, 3.8 points lower). The only candidate to clearly outperform his polling was Marco Rubio, whose finish was 6.2 points higher than his RCP average of 16.9%over the past month.

    The difference in Iowa was probably ground organization and perhaps lingering annoyance over Trump’s decision to bail on the final debate in Iowa. The former favored Cruz, but the latter might have pushed late deciders to go to Rubio’s corner. It was a tactical error by Trump, to be sure, but hardly a fatal one. Trump ended up with one less delegate than Cruz, and the same as Rubio — five. Trump didn’t win Iowa, but other than for his reputation, he didn’t really need to win; he just needed to stay competitive. And the reasons for that are New Hampshire and South Carolina.

    Now let’s look at New Hampshire, whose primary takes place a week from today. The RCP average there has Trump in front of his nearest competitors (Cruz and John Kasich) by nearly twenty-two points. Other than two ARG polls in this period, Trump’s lead hasn’t been in single digits since October. If the Trump celebrity/earned-media strategy creates a similar fade next week as it did yesterday, Trump might end up scoring 28% to around 16% for his nearest competitor. Trump’s lead in South Carolina is almost as large as in New Hampshire.

    The only real risk for Trump this week is if everyone else but Cruz and Rubio got out of the race — and Kasich, Jeb Bush, and Chris Christie have aimed at New Hampshire all along.

    Now, it’s possible things can change for Trump by losing in Iowa. He dumped a barrage of cheap shots on Cruz, which apparently backfired to some degree, and Marco Rubio’s sudden strength will be a signal to the Bush/Christie/Kasich wing that voters may have set their sights on the future rather than the past. The race will consolidate, and that’s to Trump’s disadvantage. Don’t look to New Hampshire to see those dynamics take place, but to South Carolina, where the campaigns with good ground organizations have time to exploit them more fully. At the same time, it’s far too early to tell whether “Trump fever” has broken, or just been tempered with some tough-but-surmountable political reality.

    http://hotair.com/archives/2016/02/0...tm_campaign=nl


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    Senior Member Judy's Avatar
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    Losing Iowa cost Trump 1 delegate. He and Rubio got 7 and Cruz got 8.

    If anyone thinks 1 delegate is worth writing all these articles about, it's probably because they don't know that the difference between winning Iowa and coming in second or third in Iowa is the value of 1 delegate.

    Iowa hasn't picked a winner on the Republican ballot for 4 elections, 16 years, and due to the peculiarity of both the Caucus system and their religious conservative talk-radio show controlled process, I doubt they have this time either. I mean unless you had on "your Armor of God" how could you listen to a Ted Cruz speech for an hour? Even during the 1 Delegate 37 Minute Victory Speech, Steve King looked desperate to go to the bathroom after 5 minutes into it.
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    MW
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    Quote Originally Posted by Judy View Post
    Losing Iowa cost Trump 1 delegate. He and Rubio got 7 and Cruz got 8.

    If anyone thinks 1 delegate is worth writing all these articles about, it's probably because they don't know that the difference between winning Iowa and coming in second or third in Iowa is the value of 1 delegate.

    Iowa hasn't picked a winner on the Republican ballot for 4 elections, 16 years, and due to the peculiarity of both the Caucus system and their religious conservative talk-radio show controlled process, I doubt they have this time either. I mean unless you had on "your Armor of God" how could you listen to a Ted Cruz speech for an hour? Even during the 1 Delegate 37 Minute Victory Speech, Steve King looked desperate to go to the bathroom after 5 minutes into it.
    This isn't about 1 delegate or 10 delegates. It's about not living up to expectations. Trump led all the polls going into the primary, but didn't pull out the victory. I must have seen 20 polls posted on here over the last few days, but it was all for not. This whole experience just proves the small polling numbers these poll takers use just can't be trusted. Personally, I'm more concerned about Rubio sneaking up the way he did and less concerned about where Cruz and Trump ended up. Many of us expected a tough battle between them, but Rubio ..... ouch!

    Oh, and maybe King did have need of a head call.
    Last edited by MW; 02-03-2016 at 08:59 PM.

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    Senior Member Judy's Avatar
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    Well maybe not, "all for naught". Polls are scientific evidence if conducted in a scientific manner. And when there's a conflict between evidence and election results, one queries. Carson and Trump are querying. In fact, Trump is calling fraud and demanding Cruz's results nullified.

    Not living up to expectations is not an issue for Trump Supporters. We think he won and was cheated out of it by Cruz and his tricks. It's all heating up now. Stay tuned. I've already posted by fraud call post early Tuesday. Maybe someone is reading it!

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    Senior Member realbsball's Avatar
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    It's actually catching on out here in Illegalville. Although CA will never be red again and not that it'll matter this election, but I see more Dems daily seeing Trump as viable alternative
    Judy likes this.

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    Administrator ALIPAC's Avatar
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    At this point if Trump loses, the elites will say it was because of his tough stance against illegal immigration and Muslim refugees and they will use that claim to destroy our movement.

    W
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    Senior Member Judy's Avatar
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    Then it's time to be All-In for Trump.

    STAY TRUE!! STAY TRUMP!!
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    MW
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    Quote Originally Posted by Judy View Post
    Well maybe not, "all for naught". Polls are scientific evidence if conducted in a scientific manner. And when there's a conflict between evidence and election results, one queries. Carson and Trump are querying. In fact, Trump is calling fraud and demanding Cruz's results nullified.

    Not living up to expectations is not an issue for Trump Supporters. We think he won and was cheated out of it by Cruz and his tricks. It's all heating up now. Stay tuned. I've already posted by fraud call post early Tuesday. Maybe someone is reading it!

    Yesterday there were over 5000 guests on this forum.
    All I see is sour grapes. Trump disappointed me big time here. I was very pleased with his somewhat humble speech after his 2nd place show in Iowa. I thought he was dignified and presidential like. Of course I shouldn't be surprised that Trump latched on to the first thing he could find to start whining, saying he was cheated, etc., etc. Not surprised, but disappointed.

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    MW
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    Quote Originally Posted by ALIPAC View Post
    At this point if Trump loses, the elites will say it was because of his tough stance against illegal immigration and Muslim refugees and they will use that claim to destroy our movement.

    W
    Cruz also has a tough stance on illegal immigration and has called for a ban on Muslim Syrian refugees. So, I would agree with you if anyone other than Cruz gets the nomination. Howeve, if Cruz receives the nomination over Trump, there will be no argument (IMO).

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    There will be more than an argument. Who do you think is behind Trump challenging the Iowa Caucus vote? It's Trump Supporters. Trump Supporters are the ones upset with what happened. Also Carson Supporters. But if you think voter fraud is okay, you're entitled to your opinion, but most Americans don't like to see that in our elections, whether it's our candidate like Trump being cheated, or another Republican candidate like Carson and possibly others were cheated by these dirty tactics, or whether it's a Democratic candidate like Bernie Sanders who loses Iowa over coin tosses?

    We owe our election process including the primary process a lot better than at least 3 examples of voter and election fraud in a single primary caucus plus the bull that went on in the Democratic vote in Iowa that required not one but 6 coin tosses? This is ridiculous. I hope Trump Supporters in Iowa raise holy hell and get tot he bottom of what happened in the Iowa Caucus and hold those responsible fully accountable for it.
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