Thread: Private sector adds 263,000 jobs in March: ADP

Private sector adds 263,000 jobs in March: ADP

Published: Apr 5, 2017
4:32 p.m. ET

Employment was much stronger than consensus of 170,000

By Greg Robb
Senior economics reporter
Reuters

Private-sector employment continued at a torrid pace in March, according to data released Wednesday morning, registering the second-strongest reading in more than two years.

Employers added 263,000 private sector jobs last month, up from a revised 245,000 in February, ADP Inc. reported.

The increase in March exceeded expectations. Economists polled by Econoday had forecast a March gain of 170,000 jobs compared with an original estimate of 298,000 for February.

President Donald Trump has claimed credit for the acceleration in the pace of job growth this year, as businesses look at the possibility of tax cuts, deregulation and infrastructure spending. Job gains have averaged 252,000 in the first three months of 2017.

“The gains are broad based but most notable in the goods producing side of the economy including construction, manufacturing and mining,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, who helps prepare the report.

According to ADP, professional and business sectors added 57,000 jobs and leisure and hospitality added 55,000. There was another strong month for the construction industry, where 49,000 jobs were added, and the manufacturing sector added 30,000 positions.

Stocks SPX, -0.31% rose on the strong ADP data but gains evaporated after the Federal Reserve suggested it wants to start shrinking its $4.5 trillion balance sheet this year.

Economists use ADP’s data to get a feeling for the U.S. Labor Department’s employment report, which will be released Friday and covers government jobs in addition to the private sector. Economists polled by MarketWatch before ADP expected the government’s report to show nonfarm employment rose by 178,000 jobs last month, compared with a February gain of 235,000 jobs.

After the data was released, economists began to raise their estimates of March job growth.

Ted Wieseman, economist at Morgan Stanley, said he now looks for a 195,000 gain in March nonfarm payrolls instead of 150,000. And economists at Jefferies boosted their forecast to 185,000 from 145,000.

“Today’s data is making us scratch our heads once again because we had anticipated some payback following last month’s spike,” said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies.

Other economists said they were sticking with their forecast of a pullback in job growth in March.

UBS economist Samuel Coffin said the government data is more sensitive to worsening March weather.

ADP calculates the data by using its own payrolls information, as well as unspecified other factors

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/pri...adp-2017-04-05

Sounds good, but this is the forecast, government jobs report will be out on Friday. Hope it's good too, but they could vary, because one is actual of all jobs including government whereas this is a forecast of private sector only.

Stay Tuned.

My fingers are crossed for "HUUUGE"!!

Apocalypse for retail: 3,500 stores closing in 2017

Economy
Job Growth Loses Steam as U.S. Adds 98,000 in March

By NELSON D. SCHWARTZAPRIL 7, 2017
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’15’16’17+300+200+100-100Change in jobsIn thousands+98,000March
’15’16’174.55.05.56.0Unemployment rate4.5%MarchMarch
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Job growth turned in a disappointing showing in March, according to data released Friday by the Labor Department. It is the latest official snapshot of the state of the American economy.
The Numbers

• 98,000 jobs were added last month. Economists had been anticipating a gain of about 180,000.

• The unemployment rate was 4.5 percent, the lowest level in almost a decade, down from 4.7 percent in February.

• The average hourly wage grew by 0.2 percent.
The Takeaway

Hiring in March was expected to drop after the monthly gains of more than 200,000 in the two previous months, but this was the weakest showing for the economy in nearly a year. Although it represents just one month’s data, it will raise questions about whether improving business sentiment is actually translating into any meaningful action by employers.

On the other hand, at 4.5 percent in March, the unemployment rate is at its lowest point since May 2007, marking a milestone in the long road back from the Great Recession.
Photo
A worker stitching firefighter suits in July in Pittsfield, N.H. Manufacturing jobs are being closely watched as a barometer for overall economic growth. Credit Jim Cole/Associated Press
The Background

The robust numbers in January and February led some analysts to conclude that the economy was benefiting from a “Trump bump” after President Trump’s election, but hard data to support that argument has been scarce.
Continue reading the main story
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ECONOMIC TRENDS
Trump Shouldn’t Focus on Job Growth. The New Numbers Show Why. APRIL 7, 2017
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Little Sign of a ‘Trump Bump’ in the Economic Forecast MARCH 29, 2017
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A month ago, Sean Spicer, the White House press secretary, claimed credit for the increased job creation on Mr. Trump’s behalf, saying it was a result of “the surge in economic confidence and optimism that has been inspired since his election.”

The latest report will only add to the debate over whether so-called soft data, like stronger sentiment among businesses, is actually prompting companies to hire more workers. March’s data suggests it isn’t, as does the 38,000 downward revision in estimated job creation in February and March.

“It was a disappointing report with no silver lining in the details,” said Rob Martin, an economist at Barclays. “Service-sector employment weakeness points to a substantial slowdown in activity.”

The headline number for hiring and the unemployment rate are derived from separate surveys by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, one of establishments, the other of households. Although the two tend to converge over time, they can vary widely from month to month, and March was one of those times.

So while businesses showed an anemic gain of 98,000 jobs in terms of payrolls, households reported a 472,000 increase in employment, without any fall in labor participation. That explains why the unemployment rate could fall by 0.2 percentage point, even as the headline number for job creation fell way short of expectations.

But some economists are wary of putting too much weight on March’s household figures since the week they were gathered by government researchers coincided with a blizzard on the East Coast. That may have skewed the data by basing calculations on fewer households.

In recent months, blue-collar fields like manufacturing and construction have been very solid, a sharp contrast with late last year when service industries like education, business services and health led the way.

After weakness last fall, factories have been gaining steam, with manufacturers adding another 11,000 jobs in March.

Manufacturing accounts for only 9 percent of employment but punches above its weight, because factory jobs pay considerably more than many service positions. Gains in this sector also help Mr. Trump with his base, which liked his promises to erect trade barriers and promote blue-collar jobs.

But for the moment, improving economies overseas, and the fading effects of the strong dollar, have much more to with the manufacturing sector’s revival than policies in Washington.

As some experts feared, the deep retrenchment in the retail sector as consumers shift from brick-and-mortar shopping to online purchases clearly registered in March’s report. Retail lost 29,700 jobs, on top of a 30,000 reduction in February.

With chains like Sears, J.C. Penney and Macy’s set to close hundreds of stores and lay off thousands of workers, retail is expected to create a big drag on overall hiring in the months ahead.

The findings on wages were more encouraging. Although the proportion of Americans in the work force remains near multidecade lows, the fall in the unemployment rate and the steady hiring in recent months are translating into raises for most workers.

Last month, average hourly earnings rose by 0.2 percent, bringing the 12-month increase to 2.7 percent.

The tighter labor market has prompted employers to pay more to attract and retain workers, said Amy Glaser,

“In business reviews, the No. 1 question is whether employers are competitive as workers become more scarce,” Ms. Glaser said. She added that her firm was also seeing more companies hire new employees directly, rather than first having them work in a temporary position, or what she terms “try before you buy.”

“Employers are also converting temp workers to permanent earlier than usual,” Ms. Glaser said. “We’re seeing an uptick across the board.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/07/b...ent-trump.html

Not so good on new jobs but pretty good on wage increases and part time moving to permanent full-time positions. Retail did poorly but manufacturing was pretty good which also accounts for higher wages.

We need to get back to the business at hand, pass the Phase 1 bill to repeal/replace Obamacare which would help the retail sector a lot, pass the new tax bill, get illegal aliens out of the country, pass Cotton's bill to cut green cards in half, and fix our bad trade deals.