How Donald Trump Can Beat Hillary Clinton
By GREG VALLIERE
Updated May 3, 2016 3:53 p.m. ET
The primary season will effectively end tonight with Donald Trump winning easily in Indiana. Why would Ted Cruz stay in the race and face blowout losses in California and New Jersey on June 7? Trump already is focusing on November, and the Clinton camp — still wrestling with Bernie Sanders — should start to worry about a fall matchup with Trump.
COULD HILLARY LOSE IN NOVEMBER? First off, it must be remembered that any Democrat begins the general election with a built-in Electoral College advantage, so she’s the favorite.
(Editor’s Note: In addition, latest average of RealClear Politics polls show Clinton beating Trump in a head-to-head matchup 46.7% to 40.5%.)
But Trump has broken all the rules and has vastly exceeded expectations; he has narrowed his polling gap with Clinton to the mid-single digits and even beats her in a new poll by Rasmussen Reports, admittedly not the most accurate source.
GOING FOR THE JUGULAR: Clinton’s team surely noticed that Trump had lunch yesterday with Edward Klein, the controversial author who contends she has health problems and has enabled Bill Clinton’s sexual adventures. We don’t believe much of what Klein writes, but Trump believes it. He will go after “crooked Hillary” with a ferocity -- not just over her judgment on issues like her e-mail server, but on a deeply personal level.
THE KEY FOR TRUMP IS TO DRIVE HER NEGATIVES, already in the danger zone at about 55%, up to his own stratospheric level of 65%. He just might succeed if the e-mail issue explodes this summer, but there are three other factors that could make this a close race:
The Economy: What if the anemic first-quarter GDP wasn’t a fluke? Many Americans think the economy is still in recession, so continued tepid growth would seriously damage Clinton’s argument to stay the course with Barack Obama’s economic policies. She has no prescription to jump-start the economy, none.
Health Premiums: Significant premium increases are scheduled to take effect in 2017; many of the hikes will be announced this fall, according to a piece by the Associated Press. Trump’s health insurance proposals are incoherent, but for now all he has to do is blast Obamacare.
Terrorism: The Great Wild Card. Whenever there’s been terrorism — Paris, San Bernardino, Brussels, etc. — Trump’s numbers rise. His red meat rhetoric against Islamic extremism connects with voters, so to be blunt: If there’s terrorism this fall it will help him significantly.
BOTTOM LINE: We’ve said it for months and will say it again: Trump has a plausible path to the presidency. He doesn’t have a 50% chance — maybe it’s more like one-in-three — but it sure ain’t zero. He has brought angry new voters into the process, while Hillary’s supporters (especially young people) are lukewarm.
It’s time to take Donald Trump very seriously.
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