Thread: Guide to the Diversity Visa: Demographics, Criminality, and Terrorism Risk

NOVEMBER 2, 2017 1:24PM



Guide to the Diversity Visa: Demographics, Criminality, and Terrorism Risk

By ALEX NOWRASTEH
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The alleged attacker in Tuesday’s Halloween terrorist attack in New York City that murdered eight people and injured 12 was Sayfullo Habibullaevic Saipov, an immigrant from Uzbekistan. Saipov entered the United States in 2010 on a green card he won through the Diversity Immigrant Visa Program (also known as the diversity visa or green card lottery). Many commenters on the attack, including President Trump, have partially blamed the diversity visa for this terrorist attack. This post will explain some of the basics of the diversity visa, the countries-of-origin for those who enter on it, their incarceration rates, and terrorism risks.

The Diversity Visa


Congress created the diversity visa as part of the Immigration Act of 1990, in order to provide lawful immigration opportunities for Irish immigrants who were fleeing an economic crisis in their home country. Then-Congressman Chuck Schumer (D-NY) was important in pushing for the idea to be included in the bi-partisan 1990 Immigration Act, which Congress passed by huge majorities and President George H.W. Bush signed.

Fifty thousand green cards are awarded through the diversity lottery each year, which is run in early May. Principal applicants for the diversity visa must have at least a high school education, two years of work experience, and not be inadmissibleunder U.S. immigration law in order to receive a diversity visa. The principal applicants may bring their spouse and minor unmarried children with them, but they do not count against the 50,000 cap. Those who enter the running for the diversity visa lottery may only be from certain countries that sent fewer than 50,000 non-diversity visa immigrants to the United States in the five years prior to the lottery.

Countries of Origin for the Diversity Visa


In 2015, about 9.4 million people entered the lottery for those 50,000 green cards. They had about five million minor unmarried children and spouses. Citizens from countries other than Bangladesh, Brazil, Canada, China (mainland-born), Colombia, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Haiti, India, Jamaica, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, South Korea, United Kingdom (except Northern Ireland) and its dependent territories, and Vietnam were eligible to apply for the 2018 diversity visa.


About one million people gained lawful permanent residency status through diversity visas from 1993 through 2015 (Table 1 at end of post). Saipov is from Uzbekistan, which has sent 29,665 immigrants on the diversity visa, which accounts for about 43 percent of the total number of green cards issued to Uzbeks since 1993. Only Algerian, Bulgarian, and Albanian immigrants were more likely to enter on a diversity visa. Ethiopia, Nigeria, Egypt, Ukraine, Albania, Bangladesh, Ghana, Bulgaria, and Morocco all sent more diversity visa immigrants to the United States than Uzbekistan.


Like other immigration liberalizations that Congress intended to apply to only Europeans, the composition of the diversity visa quickly morphed when it contacted reality. Europeans won a full 91 percent of all diversity visas in 1993, the first year the program was in operation (Figure 1). In 2015, only 24 percent of diversity immigrants came from Europe while 30 percent came from Asia and 41 percent from Africa (Figure 2). As for the Irish, only 12,221 won the lottery in 1993 while 45 won in 2015.


Figure 1

Diversity Visa Admissions by Continent of Origin, 1993



Sources: State Department and Department of Homeland Security.

Figure 2
Diversity Visa Admissions by Continent of Origin, 2015

Sources: State Department and Department of Homeland Security.
The share of diversity visas issued to Europeans fell precipitously after 1994 when the Irish economy started to recover (Figure 3).
Figure 3
European Share of Diversity Visa

Sources: State Department and Department of Homeland Security.


Terrorism


Many immigrants to the United States initially enter on one type of visa and then adjust their status to a green card or lawful permanent residency. A foreigner who is lawfully present on U.S. soil can apply for the diversity visa if they are otherwise eligible. That is exactly what the wife of Egyptian-born Hesham Mohamed Hedayetdid. He originally entered on a tourist visa, later applied for asylum, and only gained a green card when his wife won the diversity visa. Hedayet murdered two and injured four in a terrorist attack at Los Angeles International Airport in 2002. If he intended to carry out an attack prior to entering the United States, the diversity visa did not give him the opportunity because he was already here. Assuming he intended to carry out an attack before arriving, and there is no evidence of that as he was here for a decade before he murdered two people, the diversity visa was not the potentialweak link in the vetting system.

Syed Harris Ahmed from Pakistan and Abdurasul Juraboev from Uzbekistan entered with diversity visas and were also convicted of planning terrorist attacks on U.S. soil. A handful of immigrants who had diversity visas at one point were convicted of material support for terrorism or other offenses aimed at supporting foreign terrorists. Hedayet is the only deadly terrorist who had a diversity visa at some point in his immigration history, although he did not enter on it – he murdered 2 people, or about 0.07 percent of all those killed by a foreign-born terrorist in an attack on U.S. soil from 1975-Halloween 2017.

The diversity visa is not an efficient way for terrorists to enter the country. As mentioned above, about 9.4 million people entered the lottery for 50,000 green cards in 2015. If a terrorist lives in a country whose nationals can apply, he or she would have had a 1 in 188 chance of winning the lottery in 2015. The terrorist would then have to get through the normal procedures applied to every green card applicant. Those are not attractive odds for a terrorist intent on attacking U.S. soil. Furthermore, there is no indication that Saipov intended to commit a terrorist attack before coming to the United States. Officials said that Saipov began planning his attack a year ago and then decided to use a truck two months ago, long after he entered in 2010.

The diversity visa is not a wise choice for foreign-born terrorists who concoct their plans overseas. The small number of people murdered by foreign-born terrorists who actually entered on the visa, eight out of 3,037 since 1975, shows just how rarely it is used for such purposes. Even then, betting vetting would have stopped Saipov as his terrorism plans were recent. Based entirely on the New York Halloween terrorist attack, about 177,394 diversity visas have been granted for each person murdered in a terrorist attack on U.S. soil by someone who entered on such a visa.


Crime


Public safety also includes crime. The American Community Survey reports the number of people incarcerated by their country of birth but not the particular visa they entered on. The 2015 incarceration rates for immigrants from the 20 countries that sent the greatest number of diversity immigrants from 1993 to 2015 are all lower than the incarceration rate for native-born Americans (Figure 4). The number of Uzbeks incarcerated is so small that it is statistically indistinguishable from zero. The 2015 incarceration rate for immigrants from these 20 countries is 0.28 percent – about one-fifth of the native incarceration rate.

Figure 4

Incarceration Rates by Country of Birth, Ages 18-54.

Source: Author’s analysis of the 2015 1-year American Community Survey data. Special thanks to Michelangelo Landgrave for assembling these numbers.


Immigrants from the top 20 diversity visa dominant sending countries are less likely to be incarcerated than native-born Americans (Figure 5). All of these 20 countries together have an incarceration rate of 0.20 percent – about one-eighth that of native-born Americans. Figure 5 shows the 2015 incarceration rates for immigrants from the top 20 countries that sent the highest percentage of diversity visa immigrants relative to all who earned a green card. Benin and the Democratic Republic of the Congo sent a higher proportion of diversity visa immigrants, relative to all immigrants they sent, than two of the countries in Figure 5, but their U.S. populations are so small that they aren’t counted in the American Community Survey. I filled that gap by choosing countries with the next highest percentage of diversity immigrants relative to all immigrants.

Figure 5

Incarceration Rates by Country of Birth for Diversity Visa Dominant Countries, Ages 18-54

Source: Author’s analysis of the 2015 1-year American Community Survey data. Special thanks to Michelangelo Landgrave for assembling these numbers.

Conclusion


The diversity visa is a relatively small green card category that has allowed in about a million legal immigrant principals since 1993, or about 5 percent of the total. As far as we know, immigrants who entered on the diversity visa are responsible for committing one terrorist attack on U.S. soil that murdered eight people. Foreign-born people from countries that have sent many diversity visa immigrants to the United States have lower incarceration rates than native-born Americans. Calls to end the diversity visa based on a single deadly terrorist attack are premature.

---

Table 1
Diversity Visa Admissions by Country of Origin, 1993-2015

	All Green Cards	Diversity	Percent of Immigrants on Diversity	Percent of Diversity Immigrants Relative to All Diversity Visas
Algeria	21,728	11,175	51.43%	1.18%
Bulgaria	70,332	33,898	48.20%	3.59%
Albania	90,121	42,419	47.07%	4.50%
Uzbekistan	68,364	29,665	43.39%	3.15%
Togo	22,931	9,857	42.99%	1.05%
Lithuania	26,674	11,107	41.64%	1.18%
Benin	4,774	1,954	40.93%	0.21%
Morocco	76,112	30,398	39.94%	3.22%
Cameroon	47,951	16,297	33.99%	1.73%
Tajikistan	4,867	1,644	33.78%	0.17%
Congo, Democratic Republic	26,873	8,852	32.94%	0.94%
Egypt	148,609	48,178	32.42%	5.11%
Ethiopia	200,417	60,194	30.03%	6.38%
Nepal	94,466	28,025	29.67%	2.97%
Turkmenistan	3,171	915	28.86%	0.10%
Congo, Republic	14,611	4,026	27.55%	0.43%
Armenia	52,321	14,297	27.33%	1.52%
Kenya	103,303	27,094	26.23%	2.87%
Ghana	132,664	34,755	26.20%	3.69%
Nigeria	214,372	56,049	26.15%	5.94%
Romania	100,436	25,845	25.73%	2.74%
Turkey	77,644	19,148	24.66%	2.03%
Fiji	26,759	6,475	24.20%	0.69%
Sierra Leone	38,890	8,969	23.06%	0.95%
Belarus	45,388	10,314	22.72%	1.09%
Georgia	20,966	4,583	21.86%	0.49%
Kyrgyzstan	9,643	2,099	21.77%	0.22%
Niger	4,845	994	20.52%	0.11%
Sudan	53,311	10,695	20.06%	1.13%
Burkina Faso	4,727	917	19.40%	0.10%
Moldova	37,510	7,236	19.29%	0.77%
Ukraine	253,865	47,554	18.73%	5.04%
Sri Lanka	32,408	6,061	18.70%	0.64%
Liberia	73,123	13,377	18.29%	1.42%
Bangladesh	217,098	38,833	17.89%	4.12%
Macedonia	17,042	2,842	16.68%	0.30%
Mongolia	7,640	1,232	16.13%	0.13%
Azerbaijan	19,451	3,077	15.82%	0.33%
Cote d’Ivoire	20,631	3,013	14.60%	0.32%
Kazakhstan	27,516	4,013	14.58%	0.43%
Madagascar	1,124	161	14.32%	0.02%
Eritrea	23,113	3,143	13.60%	0.33%
Guinea-Bissau	1,580	211	13.35%	0.02%
Switzerland	16,845	2,169	12.88%	0.23%
Kosovo	4,218	538	12.75%	0.06%
Libya	5,133	632	12.31%	0.07%
Latvia	9,532	1,131	11.87%	0.12%
Serbia	4,255	488	11.47%	0.05%
Uganda	17,215	1,969	11.44%	0.21%
Rwanda	6,752	762	11.29%	0.08%
Ireland	29,032	3,250	11.19%	0.34%
Saudi Arabia	25,323	2,831	11.18%	0.30%
Tunisia	7,368	822	11.16%	0.09%
Poland	202,289	22,484	11.11%	2.38%
Germany	138,880	15,271	11.00%	1.62%
Czechoslovakia (former)	12,752	1,327	10.41%	0.14%
Qatar	2,592	267	10.30%	0.03%
Mauritius	1,428	147	10.29%	0.02%
South Africa	57,953	5,761	9.94%	0.61%
Guinea	15,483	1,537	9.93%	0.16%
New Zealand	18,383	1,797	9.78%	0.19%
Russia	256,770	25,041	9.75%	2.66%
Papua New Guinea	418	40	9.57%	0.00%
Hungary	22,723	2,171	9.55%	0.23%
Soviet Union (former)	195,502	18,299	9.36%	1.94%
Gabon	1,684	156	9.26%	0.02%
Iran	232,402	21,057	9.06%	2.23%
Malawi	2,064	186	9.01%	0.02%
Tanzania	16,922	1,524	9.01%	0.16%
Senegal	17,942	1,578	8.80%	0.17%
Oman	1,378	121	8.78%	0.01%
United Arab Emirates	13,215	1,155	8.74%	0.12%
Australia	48,126	4,167	8.66%	0.44%
Austria	8,784	758	8.63%	0.08%
Estonia	4,847	403	8.31%	0.04%
Czech Republic	6,402	517	8.08%	0.05%
Greece	20,343	1,612	7.92%	0.17%
Iceland	2,005	152	7.58%	0.02%
Botswana	791	59	7.46%	0.01%
Chad	1,405	103	7.33%	0.01%
Zambia	8,201	594	7.24%	0.06%
Finland	7,022	498	7.09%	0.05%
Sweden	22,971	1,622	7.06%	0.17%
Djibouti	1,190	82	6.89%	0.01%
Zimbabwe	13,314	893	6.71%	0.09%
France	74,745	4,993	6.68%	0.53%
Slovakia	3,757	247	6.57%	0.03%
Indonesia	50,330	3,164	6.29%	0.34%
Italy	52,046	3,197	6.14%	0.34%
Curacao	49	3	6.12%	0.00%
Cyprus	2,532	154	6.08%	0.02%
Belgium	11,467	660	5.76%	0.07%
Mali	6,722	365	5.43%	0.04%
Netherlands	25,919	1,396	5.39%	0.15%
Tonga	6,040	286	4.74%	0.03%
Japan	133,350	5,749	4.31%	0.61%
Burundi	5,842	244	4.18%	0.03%
Spain	34,765	1,439	4.14%	0.15%
Kuwait	20,340	831	4.09%	0.09%
Burma	121,428	4,865	4.01%	0.52%
Denmark	9,771	387	3.96%	0.04%
Angola	2,545	100	3.93%	0.01%
Namibia	872	34	3.90%	0.00%
Croatia	17,749	679	3.83%	0.07%
Macau	3,470	128	3.69%	0.01%
Palau	136	5	3.68%	0.00%
Israel	79,216	2,902	3.66%	0.31%
Cambodia	55,809	2,026	3.63%	0.21%
Venezuela	147,742	5,337	3.61%	0.57%
Norway	6,651	226	3.40%	0.02%
Peru	257,629	8,650	3.36%	0.92%
Pakistan	304,020	10,179	3.35%	1.08%
Luxembourg	471	15	3.18%	0.00%
Slovenia	1,605	48	2.99%	0.01%
Taiwan	161,568	4,639	2.87%	0.49%
Montenegro	1,394	40	2.87%	0.00%
Portugal	23,851	679	2.85%	0.07%
Yemen	49,556	1,358	2.74%	0.14%
Monaco	78	2	2.56%	0.00%
Singapore	14,626	370	2.53%	0.04%
Lesotho	251	6	2.39%	0.00%
Somalia	99,780	2,342	2.35%	0.25%
Bahrain	1,954	45	2.30%	0.00%
Malta	1,001	23	2.30%	0.00%
Hong Kong	83,306	1,889	2.27%	0.20%
Malaysia	39,194	810	2.07%	0.09%
Seychelles	195	4	2.05%	0.00%
Unknown	28,065	535	1.91%	0.06%
Bolivia	40,859	783	1.92%	0.08%
Argentina	81,114	1,521	1.88%	0.16%
Mozambique	1,112	20	1.80%	0.00%
Aruba	668	11	1.65%	0.00%
Brunei	429	7	1.63%	0.00%
Gambia	10,282	167	1.62%	0.02%
Syria	54,920	871	1.59%	0.09%
Swaziland	318	5	1.57%	0.00%
Jordan	73,909	1,125	1.52%	0.12%
Equatorial Guinea	211	3	1.42%	0.00%
Mauritania	6,089	85	1.40%	0.01%
Afghanistan	52,579	732	1.39%	0.08%
Lebanon	72,017	992	1.38%	0.11%
Paraguay	7,584	94	1.24%	0.01%
United Kingdom	234,161	2,866	1.22%	0.30%
Cuba	630,056	7,571	1.20%	0.80%
Brazil	205,681	2,446	1.19%	0.26%
Ecuador	204,339	2,372	1.16%	0.25%
Central African Republic	1,335	15	1.12%	0.00%
Trinidad and Tobago	85,419	953	1.12%	0.10%
South Sudan	277	3	1.08%	0.00%
Suriname	3,705	37	1.00%	0.00%
Bahamas	7,664	76	0.99%	0.01%
Chile	36,196	343	0.95%	0.04%
Cape Verde	26,687	250	0.94%	0.03%
Thailand	127,313	1,004	0.79%	0.11%
Canada	298,671	2,316	0.78%	0.25%
Uruguay	18,691	128	0.68%	0.01%
Bosnia-Herzegovina	121,026	801	0.66%	0.08%
United States	3,193	20	0.63%	0.00%
Costa Rica	37,479	231	0.62%	0.02%
Barbados	13,235	81	0.61%	0.01%
Samoa	3,753	22	0.59%	0.00%
Panama	33,178	192	0.58%	0.02%
Dominica	8,194	42	0.51%	0.00%
Iraq	174,316	805	0.46%	0.09%
Grenada	13,818	56	0.41%	0.01%
Belize	16,526	66	0.40%	0.01%
Saint Lucia	9,957	38	0.38%	0.00%
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines	6,046	20	0.33%	0.00%
Nicaragua	131,175	432	0.33%	0.05%
Honduras	135,484	435	0.32%	0.05%
Guyana	135,606	411	0.30%	0.04%
French Polynesia	337	1	0.30%	0.00%
Antigua-Barbuda	7,117	21	0.30%	0.00%
British Virgin Islands	878	2	0.23%	0.00%
Saint Kitts-Nevis	3,564	8	0.22%	0.00%
Anguilla	463	1	0.22%	0.00%
Guatemala	255,110	437	0.17%	0.05%
Laos	28,649	36	0.13%	0.00%
India	1,198,749	1,421	0.12%	0.15%
Bermuda	1,717	2	0.12%	0.00%
Haiti	396,924	292	0.07%	0.03%
Bhutan	49,881	34	0.07%	0.00%
China, People’s Republic	1,206,575	793	0.07%	0.08%
Colombia	414,973	248	0.06%	0.03%
Korea, South	152,483	68	0.04%	0.01%
Dominican Republic	648,938	168	0.03%	0.02%
Philippines	1,074,811	162	0.02%	0.02%
Jamaica	359,859	53	0.01%	0.01%
Vietnam	600,992	38	0.01%	0.00%
Mexico	3,175,771	183	0.01%	0.02%
El Salvador	432,535	20	0.00%	0.00%
All other countries1	73	0	0.00%	0.00%
Cayman Islands	704	0	0.00%	0.00%
Korea, North	432	0	0.00%	0.00%
Marshall Islands	586	0	0.00%	0.00%
Montserrat	834	0	0.00%	0.00%
Netherlands Antilles (former)	67	0	0.00%	0.00%
Serbia and Montenegro (former)	232	0	0.00%	0.00%
Sint Maarten	90	0	0.00%	0.00%
Turks and Caicos Islands	38	0	0.00%	0.00%
Total	19,101,716	943,049

Sources: State Department and Department of Homeland Security.







https://www.cato.org/blog/guide-dive...terrorism-risk

OH MY GOD, STOP ALL THIS NONSENSE NOW!! JUST STOP IT ALL!!!

GRRRR!!!!!

We are NOT responsible for the World's "economic crisis"!

Deport them all no matter where the hell they came from.

We have our own economic crisis...20 TRILLION IN DEBT

Unaffordable healthcare
High cost of housing
No jobs
Gangs, drugs, violence, rape, murder
Hurricanes, volcanos, floods, mud slides, earthquakes, FIRES!

Preserve our resources and stop bringing these breeding leeches here.