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  1. #1
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    Jump-Start U.S. (Economic) Growth Through Immigration

    This blog, which I am not able to copy, describes a new study by Arlene Holen, an economist and senior fellow with the Technology Policy Institute, which finds that "letting in more highly-skilled immigrants would generate more tax revenue, and over time raise labor earnings and national income."

    The original study, "The Budgetary Effects of High-Skilled Immigration Reform" (pdf):
    http://www.techpolicyinstitute.org/file ... reform.pdf

    You can make comments and find the blogger's email address at the Reuter's blogger's source:
    http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2 ... migration/
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    Senior Member Bowman's Avatar
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    If they are talking about immigrants like the ones who started Google and E-bay, yes they are correct. But there are only a few thousand people like that in the world, and we already let most of them in.
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  3. #3
    Senior Member crazybird's Avatar
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    We aren't supposed to limit it to the high end.....the poor say it's not fair.
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    Here it is- I googled it and found it in html:


    The Budgetary Effects of High-Skilled Immigration Reform Arlene Holen*Executive Summary Most economists believe that admitting more highly skilled workers from other countries isbeneficial to the U.S. economy. This is particularly true of workers in the fields of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM). Immigration also has positive effects on the federal budget. Highly skilled workers pay more in taxes than less skilled workers and they are not likely to receive federal benefits, particularly in the near term. This paper examines those fiscal effects to help inform the immigration policy debate. The estimates are not precise. They rely on very simple assumptions that are consistent with the economics literature and indicate the magnitudes involved.The paper finds:In the absence of green card and H-1B constraints, roughly 182,000 foreign graduates of U.S. colleges and universities in STEM fields would likely have remained in the United States over the period 2003-2007. They would have earned roughly $13.6 billion in 2008, raised the GDP by that amount, and would have contributed $2.7 to $3.6 billion to the federal treasury. In the absence of green card constraints, approximately 300,000 H-1B visa-holders whose temporary work authorizations expired during 2003-2007 would likely have been in the United States labor force in 2008. These workers would have earned roughly $23 billion in 2008, raised the GDP by that amount, and would have contributed $4.5 to $6.2 billion to the federal treasury.Similar results are obtained when analyzing legislation considered by Congress duringthe last few years. For example, under reasonable assumptions, the relaxation of green card constraints proposed in the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2006 could have increased labor earnings and GDP by approximately $34 billion in the tenth year following enactment and had a net positive effect on the budget of $34 to $47 billion over ten years.Relaxation of H-1B caps under the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2007 could have increased labor earnings and GDP by $60 billion in the tenth year following enactment and improved the federal budget’s bottom line by $64 to $86 billion over ten years.Failing to enact such legislation has been costly to the economy and the federal treasury.*Senior fellow, Technology Policy Institute. The author thanks B. Lindsay Lowell, Kathy Ruffing, Stuart Anderson, and Thomas M. Lenard for helpful discussions and James L. Riso for able research assistance. Anyremaining errors in this paper are my own. The Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation provided support for thisresearch.

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    3Introduction Although economists hold different views on the economic effects of immigration in general, they are virtually unanimous in their belief that admitting more highly skilled workers,particularly in STEM fields (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics), is beneficial to the U.S. economy (see e.g., Mankiw 200. High-skilled immigration promotes technological entrepreneurship, economic growth, and productivity. It is less well understood that immigration—especially high-skilled immigration—has beneficial fiscal effects at the federal and also possibly the state and local levels (see e.g., Lee and Miller 2000). This paper examines the economic effects of high-skilled immigration and its effects on the federal budget. Its purpose is to provide data and analysis to help inform the immigration policy debate. Constraints on Admissions in Current LawHigh-skilled workers can enter the U.S. labor force by obtaining an employment-based green card, which allows an individual to stay in the United States as a permanent resident, or an H-1Bvisa, which allows an individual to work here for three years, renewable to six years. Current law limits the annual number of H-1B visas to 65,000 and also exempts up to 20,000 foreign nationals holding a master’s or higher degree from a U.S. university from the cap. H-1Bpetitions far exceed the number of slots and are allocated through a random selection process. Most H-1B visa holders and their employers hope to be able to convert their H-1B visa to a green card, so they can stay permanently. The current annual cap on green cards for skilled workers is 40,000 and there is a five-year backlog of applications. (There are separate caps of 40,000 for priority workers with extraordinary ability and also for professionals holding advanced degrees.) Per-country caps further limit admissions, especially of applications from China and India. The result of these constraints is that many high-skilled workers in scientific and technical fields who are currentlyworking in the United States on temporary H-1B visas are forced to leave their jobs each year and return home. Similarly, many foreign students completing scientific and technical training at U.S. colleges and universities who would otherwise remain and work in the United States arereturning to their home countries, taking their U.S.-acquired human capital with them. This loss of human resources imposes significant costs on the U.S. economy and constitutes a drain on federal revenues. Over the past three years, Congress has considered comprehensive immigration reform packages that increased employment-based admissions and other, more narrowly targeted bills. Immigration issues are likely to be revisited during the coming months as technology spending in the stimulus package boosts demand for engineers, individuals with advanced degrees, and other skilled workers, at the same time as news of layoffs raise concerns about the jobs and wages of domestic workers. Background The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has concluded that immigration overall affects federal finances positively (2006c, p. 4; 2007c, p. 1). The fiscal implications of admitting and retainingmore high-skilled workers, through either employment-based green cards or H-1B visas, appear to be especially favorable. This result holds primarily because high-skilled workers pay more in taxes than low-skilled workers and are less likely to receive public benefits. (For a detailed explanation of the benefits side of the ledger, see Appendix A, Federal Benefits Resulting from Increasing High-Skilled Immigration.)CBO’s analyses are widely cited, although certain key aspects—notably on the tax side—arescantily explained. Thus the favorable budget effects of high-skilled immigration, which could facilitate new legislation, are not widely understood and have received little attention. Budget scores are often critical to the passage of legislation. Measures with positive scores are sought by members of Congress as offsets to the cost of other legislation and for inclusion in legislative packages.Only CBO issues official scores and does so for legislation that has been passed by Congress or reported by a Committee. Tax revenues are estimated by the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT)and incorporated into CBO’s cost estimates; however revenue estimates are not reported or explained in detail. Official cost estimates depend on precise legislative wording.

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    5The estimates in this paper are designed to approximate the types of estimates made by the Congressional Budget Office in preparing budget baseline estimates and in scoring legislativeproposals. Many of the estimates in this paper are necessarily hypothetical. Nevertheless, they are intended to be consistent insofar as possible with CBO’s methodology as explained in its cost estimates and analyses and also with academic studies of the effects of immigration on the economy. Empirical Analyses of the Effects of Immigration Examining how immigration affects the well-being of U.S. workers is complex. The effects of immigration extend over many years and it is difficult to isolate its effects from those of otherfactors. A number of studies have estimated labor market outcomes for domestic workers that result from the presence of foreign-born workers. In principle, to the extent foreign-born workers havesimilar skills and experience as native workers, they would compete with native workers for jobs and tend to lower their wages. But immigrants in general have different characteristics thannative workers. Among other differences, they more frequently hold advanced degrees. Differences between domestic and immigrant workers in education and skills can lead to complementarities that result in benefits including higher earnings for domestic workers. Studies of the effects of immigration on labor markets have taken two approaches: some havefocused on areas where there were large increases in the number of immigrants while others havelooked at nationwide variations in the number of immigrants over time. A study by George Borjas, examining detailed census data on native workers, concluded that a 10 percent increase in workers in a particular education-experience group would reduce weekly earnings in that group by roughly 4 percent before adjustments in new investment in capital or beforeinvestments in skills by workers are made (Borjas 2003).Most recent studies have found little effect of immigrants on domestic workers (e.g. Card 1990). A review of the empirical literature by the National Research Council concluded that there is

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    only a weak relationship between native wages and the number of immigrants. One group that appears to be most affected are immigrants from earlier waves for whom the more recent immigrants are close substitutes in the labor market (Smith and Edmonston 1997, p. 6).Secondary economic adjustments to immigration occur because immigrants stimulate the demand for capital and also encourage domestic workers to invest in more education. A subsequent study by Borjas concluded that if there were complete adjustment of the capital stock, immigrants would have no adverse effect on native workers’ earnings (Borjas 2005). Onerecent analysis that examined adjustment costs concluded that capital generally adjusts quickly to changes in other factors of production (Hall 2004). A study of immigrants’ wage effects that took account of adjustments in the capital stock concluded that immigration tends to slightlyraise the average wages of domestic workers and that the effect is greater when capital has had more time to adjust (Ottaviano and Peri 2006). A more recent study by the same authors found that in the long run, immigration has a small positive effect on average native wages and on the wages of native workers without a high school degree (Ottaviano and Peri 200.1Dynamic EstimatesAt the outset, it is important to note that CBO’s general practice in preparing cost estimates, following longstanding Congressional budget procedures, is not to incorporate the budgetary effects of changes in the economic outlook, commonly referred to as “dynamic scoring.â€

  5. #5
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    Thank you, Mayday.
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    Senior Member Judy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bowman
    If they are talking about immigrants like the ones who started Google and E-bay, yes they are correct. But there are only a few thousand people like that in the world, and we already let most of them in.
    Larry Page actually started Google. It was his idea and his concept and his research project at Stanford. Sergey Brin, Larry's co-founder joined him later on to complete the project because he thought Larry had a great idea. Just for the record.

    Both Sergey Brin, co-founder of Google and Pierre Omidyar who founded eBay came here when they were 6 years old. Brin from Moscow and Pierre, who is a French-born Iranian, from Paris. And of course, both came here legally with their parents.
    A Nation Without Borders Is Not A Nation - Ronald Reagan
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  7. #7
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    Economy will improve but many jobless americans will not get a job. I can tell example of high tech jobs. Millions of americans lost job in last 1 year. When economy starts improve those who lost job will not be preferred candidates as they will be out job for 1 or 2 years. At the same time H1bs and L1s will be given for as they do not have any gap in employment as they came from India or china. Even if they have a gap they will fake their resumes and ready for any salary and will work for 15 hours a day. So americans will be losers always. No one is there to educate congress about the issues americans are facing in high tech jobs. Pro immigration supporters are dynamic in writing articles in media to support their cause to expand immigration. But only a few is supporting for american workers. Media does not know what is happening really.It is really important to reduce H1b quota to 10k and introduce L1 quota to 10k and in those only select toppers and no lottery. Also outsourcing need to be restricted. Otherwise american jobs will continue to be displaced by foreigners and foreign outsourcing companies.

  8. #8
    Senior Member vistalad's Avatar
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    In practice, a large majority of the H1B people apply for citizenship. If we limited them to the three year visa length - that's what's posted on immihelp.com - we'd get what they have to contribute and more of them could come in when the first batch went home.

    Ultimately, IMO, the real problem is that we're no longer willing to insist that everything we agree to in this magnificent country has to be to our long term advantage. 'Bama and 'Crats are going to stifle pro-American immigration policy, if they can get away with it.

  9. #9
    Senior Member vistalad's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sen
    Economy will improve but many jobless americans will not get a job. I can tell example of high tech jobs. Millions of americans lost job in last 1 year. When economy starts improve those who lost job will not be preferred candidates as they will be out job for 1 or 2 years.

    Media does not know what is happening really.

    Also outsourcing need to be restricted. Otherwise american jobs will continue to be displaced by foreigners and foreign outsourcing companies.
    Sen, you nailed it. Bravo!

  10. #10
    Senior Member Bowman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Judy
    Quote Originally Posted by Bowman
    If they are talking about immigrants like the ones who started Google and E-bay, yes they are correct. But there are only a few thousand people like that in the world, and we already let most of them in.
    Larry Page actually started Google. It was his idea and his concept and his research project at Stanford. Sergey Brin, Larry's co-founder joined him later on to complete the project because he thought Larry had a great idea. Just for the record.

    Both Sergey Brin, co-founder of Google and Pierre Omidyar who founded eBay came here when they were 6 years old. Brin from Moscow and Pierre, who is a French-born Iranian, from Paris. And of course, both came here legally with their parents.
    Thanks for the clarification, but you have to admit their businesses have contributed billions to the US economy, and I bet their parents were pretty sharp. Bottom line is I think the US is already letting in every genius (like their parents) who wants to move to the US, and I don't think simply letting in more "skilled" immigrants (about 1 billion people in the world have a college degree) will help our economy any.
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