by Dan Riehl 9 Sep 2014, 9:51 AM PDT

With Barack Obama now publicly backing away from executive action, or perhaps an amnesty for illegal immigrants until after November, anyone watching the mid-term elections closely has to admit that the border crisis and the amnesty issue is now a significant factor, especially in competitive states, as we move toward November.

In fact, it may well be the single most important factor in determining whether or not the GOP takes control of the Senate.

At the same time, a new Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll indicates "the Affordable Care Act doesn't seem to be driving voters all that much two months before Election Day....

If one contrasts the above findings with the so called conventional wisdom being offered by Republican strategist Karl Rove, as well as other top establishment GOP figures including Paul Ryan, one finds that they have been so completely wrong as to have been strongly advocating for a strategy 180 degrees in opposition to what's now being proven effective in competitive state after competitive state.

They've been preaching ignore amnesty and hit Democrats on the Affordable Care Act and have most likely squandered away millions of dollars in advertising in that effort. That's why we're seeing numbers like this. The ads are running, the Karl roves of the world are making big dollars for making and placing them, but they're having scant little impact on the outcome in November.

Of those “more enthusiastic” Republicans, just 3 percent credited the ACA. Overall, when asked what issues are most influential in voters’ decisions, the economy and jobs beat out other issues, including health care. Independents show even less interest in health reform than Democrats or Republicans.

Despite the law’s limited salience with voters, the Kaiser poll found heavy exposure to ads about it. Even in states that don’t have a competitive Senate race, half of voters reported seeing ACA-related ads in the past 30 days, and that number was closer to 7 in 10 in states with a true contest. Respondents were much more likely to say they saw more ads opposed to the law.

One has to wonder, how could something like this happen if Rove is allegedly such a genius. Perhaps he's most interested in the opinions of organizations like the Chamber of Commerce that have plenty of cash to throw around, including his way, directly or otherwise, as opposed to what's actually on the minds of GOP and swing voters.

It's a theory, anyway and would help to explain how Rove and others have gotten 2014 so incredibly wrong, even if the GOP is now poised to win mostly without them.

Some may want to remember that when they rush out to try and take credit for it. Worse, if big GOP donors figure out what's really happening in 2014, the Roves of the GOP world may have a much harder time raising money than one might think they would after a successful GOP effort in the mid-terms precisely because their advice and suggested advertising was so ineffective.