Thread: Iowa Poll: Cruz soars past Trump into lead among GOP

Iowa Poll: Cruz soars past Trump into lead among GOP
Jennifer Jacobs, The Des Moines Register 11:42 a.m. EST December 13, 2015

DES MOINES, Iowa — Seven weeks from the caucuses, Ted Cruz is crushing it in Iowa.

The anti-establishment congressional agitator has made a rapid ascent into the lead in the GOP presidential race here, with a 21 percentage-point leap that smashes records for upsurges in recent Iowa caucuses history.

Donald Trump, now 10 points below Cruz, was in a pique about not being front-runner even before the Iowa Poll results were announced Saturday evening. He wasted no time in tearing into Cruz — and the poll — during an Iowa stop Friday night.

Ben Carson, another “Washington outsider” candidate, has plunged 15 points from his perch at the front of the pack in October. He’s now in third place.

“Big shakeup,” said J. Ann Selzer, pollster for The Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll. “This is a sudden move into a commanding position for Cruz.”

Cruz, a Texas U.S. senator famous for defying party leaders and using government shutdown tactics to hold up funding for the Affordable Care Act and abortion provider Planned Parenthood, was the favorite of 10% of likely Republican caucusgoers in the last Iowa Poll, in October. He’s now at 31%.

Carson’s zenith was 28% in the poll two months ago. Trump’s highest support was 23% in August, when he led the field by 5 points.

And there are signs Cruz may not have peaked in Iowa yet. Another 20% of likely caucusgoers say he’s their current second choice for president. Cruz hits 51% support when first- and second-choice interest is combined, again leading the field.

With Cruz’s popularity and his debate proficiency, “it’s certainly possible that he could win Iowa big — very big,” said Frank Luntz, a Nevada-based GOP focus group guru who follows the Iowa race closely.

But Trump, who has earned a reputation for upending pundits’ predictions, still has healthy backing, at 21%, 2 percentage points higher than in the last poll.

And the New York real estate entrepreneur has won the confidence of likely caucusgoers in several key areas. In a four-way head-to-head match-up with Cruz, Carson and Marco Rubio, half of likely caucusgoers believe Trump would be best at managing the economy and think he’d do the most to solve the illegal immigration problem. About 49% believe Trump “knows the most about how to get things done,” while only 22% say that of Cruz.

Carson, a mellow-voiced religious conservative who spent his career at the bedside of children who needed brain surgery, has dropped to 13%. Poll respondents interviewed by the Register said they want a president who will be tough on terrorism, and they have a trouble seeing Carson in this role.

Two establishment candidates’ positions in the race remain largely unchanged.

Rubio, a Florida U.S. senator who has framed himself as someone who can deliver “a new American century,” is in fourth place with 10%. He was in fourth with 9% in October.

And former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who presents himself as the steady hand who can best keep the nation safe from terrorism and improve the economy, remains in fifth (he was tied in fifth with Kentucky U.S. Sen. Rand Paul in October). Bush sits at 6%, up 1 point.

Three Republicans are tied at 3%: Paul, a watchdog for government overreach; former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, a torchbearer for Christian conservative morals; and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a self-proclaimed messenger of hard truths.

This poll result will play a role in determining whether Paul is on the main stage for the Las Vegas debate Tuesday night, or if he’ll be with the underdogs in the undercard debate.

The rest of the field is at 2% or less, including Carly Fiorina, a public officerookie who leans on her experience as a technology company CEO, and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who stresses his longtime government experience and competence.

The Iowa Poll of 400 likely Republican caucusgoers was conducted Dec. 7-10 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Just as some top Republicans in Iowa and across the country were starting to say Trump might win not only Iowa but also the GOP nomination, he finds himself losing by 10 points here.

“Iowa’s 11th commandment is thou shalt be nice,” said Jamie Johnson, an Iowa political operative who was senior director for former presidential candidate Rick Perry’s campaign. “Donald Trump has violated this commandment one too many times. Now he is paying the price.”

The poll shows the Iowa electorate has started to define Trump a little more clearly. He has hammered home the impression that he’d be a get-it-done problem-solver on the federal deficit, on dealing with the aggressive president of Russia, and on combating Islamic terrorism.

But he scores poorly on temperament to be president, ability to work effectively with Congress, and on values.

Those are areas where Cruz is viewed as best, the poll finds.

Since the October poll, Cruz got strong reviews in two debates, stepped up his visits to Iowa and was validated by an endorsement from U.S. Rep. Steve King, a kingmaker in conservative circles.

Cruz is now leading with two critical blocs in the Republican caucus electorate: evangelical conservatives (45%) and Tea Party conservatives (39%).

Iowa presents a “take and hold” scenario for Cruz: He’s taken it; now he needs to hold it, with about 50 days to go before the first-in-the-nation vote on Feb. 1.

While other GOP presidential hopefuls have clashed with the Trump Nation head-on, Cruz’s decision to stay out of Trump’s way is proving to be a favorable strategy in Iowa. He’s the backup choice for 49% of Trump supporters. And Cruz has sky-high image numbers. The percentage of likely caucusgoers who have a positive view of Cruz is now 73%, up 12 points from October, including 43% who have a very favorable impression.

On Friday, amid chatter about the race narrowing to a two-person affair, Cruz tweeted that he wasn’t going to reward the establishment by engaging in a “cage match” with Trump.

But Trump, now that his political soulmate poses a threat, had no such qualms. At an event at the Iowa State Fairgrounds Friday night, Trump lit into Cruz for the first time, claiming the Texan is beholden to Big Oil and trying to plant seeds of doubt about whether a Cuban can be an evangelical Christian. Cruz’s father, a conservative preacher who has spent 25 days on the Iowa campaign trail for his son, emigrated from Cuba.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/p...-gop/77218292/

This is the same poll by the Des Moines Register that had Carson 9 points above Trump last month. Des Moines Register editorial staff have written against Trump for months. Whether there is any connection to that editorial bias and their poll, who knows. Smells fishy though.

Originally Posted by Judy

This is the same poll by the Des Moines Register that had Carson 9 points above Trump last month. Des Moines Register editorial staff have written against Trump for months. Whether there is any connection to that editorializing bias and their poll, who knows. Smells fishy though.

First of all, they are biased, so I would take anything they say with a shaker full of salt. Secondly, IIRC, the sample size of the poll was something like 400 people, which is too small a sample size to take seriously.