Thread: Le Pen is on course to be France's next president, fund manager says from AI analysis

Le Pen is on course to be France's next president, fund manager says from AI analysis

Everett Rosenfeld | Nyshka Chandran
Wednesday, 15 Feb 2017 | 6:06 AM ET CNBC.com

Marine Le Pen is on course to be the next president of France, according to one fund manager's big-data analysis.

Arun Kant, chief executive and chief investment officer at Singapore-based investing firm Leonie Hill Capital, told CNBC he expected the right-wing populist to prevail thanks to his firm's proprietary artificial intelligence (AI) system's analysis of troves of data.

His analysis — which he said incorporates inputs such as social and traditional media discussions, polling, economics and demographics — predicts that Le Pen will "walk over" her opponents in the first electoral test and then prove most forecasters wrong and steal the lead in the second ballot, Kant said.

The French vote is split into two phases, with the top two candidates from the April 23 round due to face each other in a second run-off on May 7. In the running alongside 48-year old Le Pen are former economy minister and independent candidate Emmanuel Macron, conservative ex-prime minister Francois Fillon and socialist Benoit Hamon.

Kant's AI program predicts that Le Pen would take 28 percent of the vote in the first round, he said, which would best 16.4 percent for Fillon, and 19 to 20 percent for Macron.

Current inputs are pointing to a Macron victory in the second round — 52.3 percent to 47.7 for Le Pen — Kant said, but he added that he expects the right-wing politician to gain considerable ground after a first round victory.

"If she wins the first round, this dynamic will change," he said, noting the similarities between the populist appeal of Le Pen and President Donald Trump.

And with this predicted momentum, Le Pen will likely win the presidency, Kant said.

An IFOP poll published on Feb. 14 placed Le Pen in the lead for the April 23 ballot, with around 25.5 percent of the vote. Most election-watchers expect, however, that Le Pen would lose the second round of voting to Macron.

In fact, Kant said his AI analysis predicted that the only way Macron could win is if some unexpected factor were to pull undecided voters in his favor.

Le Pen, a former attorney, is leader of the French National Front (FN), a right-wing political party founded by her father Jean-Marie Le Pen. And this isn't the first time she's run for the country's top job. In the 2012 election, she won 17.9 percent of the vote in the first round, a record result for the FN, but failed to enter the second round.

Her policies mirror those of Trump's—she is a fierce critic of open borders and free trade. Like the White House chief, she also believes in nationalism and economic protectionism, having vowed to pull France out of the European Union.

Announcing her candidacy for the French presidency in a strident speech earlier this month in Lyon, Le Pen told supporters that European "borders have been erased and our countries have become station concourses."

"What is at stake in this election ... is whether France can still be a free nation," Le Pen said at that rally, according to Reuters. "The divide is not between the left and right any more but between patriots and globalists."

Kant declined to share his investing plans around his Le Pen projection, but he did explain that he expected her victory to mean the beginning of the end of the European Union. And with that, he said, currencies around the world will see massive fluctuations and "it may lead to a financial crisis much sooner than anyone thinks."

Still, Kant's prediction of a Le Pen victory is definitely not the consensus call.

As of Tuesday, betting markets implied about a 30 percent chance of Le Pen winning the presidency.

The bulk of strategists said they believe she can reach the second round, but will struggle to cross the 50 percent threshold needed to become president. Given the sheer unpredictability of recent political events like Brexitand Trump'srise to power, however, several experts told CNBC that anything was possible.

There is a chance she could win the presidency, said Simon Baptist, global chief economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

"Le Pen has taken care to present herself as a candidate with reasonable views, which has helped her to push the National Front from the fringes to the mainstream. Recent events, such as the refugee crisis, terrorist attacks, and the rise of populist leaders elsewhere, have also played into her hands."

A poll by French newspaper Le Figaro indicated the French were more pessimistic about globalization than other countries — sentiments that may play into Le Pen's hands.

"The day before the U.S. election, pollsters gave Trump a 1.6 percent chance of victory, so while I wouldn't consider a Le Pen victory a baseline scenario, I wouldn't count her out," said Tony Nash, managing partner and chief economist of Complete Intelligence.

While Le Pen's controversial views have only appealed to a minority of voters thus far, many have warned that her popularity could swell if rival parties fall prey to more scandals. Allegations emerged last month that Fllion's wife was paid for a fake job; the 62-year old candidate has so far rejected the claims.

Markets, analysts said, are acknowledging the chances of a victory for the French right-wing.

"I think the market is telling us a clear message that investors are finally waking up to the risk of a Le Pen win," Callum Henderson, head of global markets research for the Eurasia Group, told CNBC in an email. He pointed to the the Bund-OAT spread's beginning to "widen out sharply," and France's CAC 40 index "significantly" underperforming Germany's DAX index.

And then there are others who adamantly rule out the prospect of a Le Pen presidency.

"Based on all the polls, as well as the polarization in France, she has virtually no chance," warned Cas Mudde, associate professor at the University of Georgia. "People argue she can win because they doubt the polls after Brexit and Trump. However, in both cases the margins were much smaller than between Le Pen and Macron or Fillon."

If Le Pen were to win, Henderson said, "markets would riot" because of her comments on France leaving the European Union. Still, he added, her rhetoric might not accurately reflect what would happen in the country.

"It is highly questionable whether she would be able to (initiate a French exit from the EU or the euro) if she did win because parliament would not likely pass much ideas, but the initial market reaction would be very volatile and very negative," Henderson said.

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http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/15/marin...kant-says.html

Oh this is really good news! I hope their data analysis is right and Marine Le Pen wins!!

Sounds familiar no chance to win. They may also be surprised.

Yes, I hope they are surprised with a Le Pen win! It would be great to be super friendly with France again. I love France, such an artistic cultured country.

They may be far right, but any right party is MUCH better than any left commie party any day!

Originally Posted by Judy

Her policies mirror those of Trump's—she is a fierce critic of open borders and free trade. Like the White House chief, she also believes in nationalism and economic protectionism, having vowed to pull France out of the European Union.

Good, keeping your nations' sovereignty is much more important than that whole globalization scam. Besides, doesn't the bible warn of a New World Order under one government run by the devil? Yeah, better to just keep our sovereignty rather than being part of the devil's globalization scam.

My reason for supporting Le Pen is that she stands up for France and wants to withdraw from the EU and end the globalism. As to her other platforms, I'm not that familiar and that's all up to the people of France to decide. I'm opposed to the EU because it creates this huge core of globalists that impact our country, and I want to bust it, if we can, but we can't do it alone, we need European countries to help end this socialist-globalism that is robbing the power of the people of individual nation states. Look what it's done to our poor beleaguered country.

Globalism just won't do here.

Originally Posted by Judy

My reason for supporting Le Pen is that she stands up for France and wants to withdraw from the EU and end the globalism. As to her other platforms, I'm not that familiar and that's all up to the people of France to decide. I'm opposed to the EU because it creates this huge core of globalists that impact our country, and I want to bust it, if we can, but we can't do it alone, we need European countries to help end this socialist-globalism that is robbing the power of the people of individual nation states. Look what it's done to our poor beleaguered country.

Globalims just won't do here.

I agree 100% Judy. Why can't we just go back to the good ole days. That worked so much better. And I'm not a big bible thumper. I don't preach to people about religion. As far as I'm concerned, everybody has a right to worship as they please, and if they want to go to hell, well, that's their problem. But, I myself believe every single word in the bible, and the bible warns about globalization and the entire world being governed by one person, the devil. I forget exactly how it's worded, but it's in there somewhere. Yeah, the hell with that globalization bull.

Originally Posted by 6 Million Dollar Man

I agree 100% Judy. Why can't we just go back to the good ole days. That worked so much better. And I'm not a big bible thumper. I don't preach to people about religion. As far as I'm concerned, everybody has a right to worship as they please, and if they want to go to hell, well, that's their problem. But, I myself believe every single word in the bible, and the bible warns about globalization and the entire world being governed by one person, the devil. I forget exactly how it's worded, but it's in there somewhere. Yeah, the hell with that globalization bull.

Ok, here I go quoting myself again (puke), but here's something I googled really quick on globalization. Like I said, I'm not a bible thumper and I don't push my religion on anyone. I'm just posting this particular post for entertainment purposes. Take from it what you want, but as for myself, the bible explicitly warns against globalization and how it's evil and that it's the work of the devil. But hey, that's just my own opinion.


https://www.endtime.com/new-world-order/

The prophesied one-world government is being formed on earth at this very time. The Bible prophesies that the Antichrist will ultimately reign over this world government for three-and-one-half years just prior to the Second Coming of Jesus to establish His own world government.Satanically Empowered Control

Control of the coming endtime government will be consolidated into the totalitarian hands of the Antichrist. The dragon, which is the devil, gives this world governmental system its seat, power, and great authority (Revelation 13:2). We will all feel the oppression of this world government structure because it is satanically inspired, and it is forming right now.

Revelation 13:7 states that power will be given to the Antichrist over “all kindreds, and tongues, and nations.” Verse 3 says, “And all the world wondered after the beast.” Daniel 7:23 tells of a world governmental system ruled by the Antichrist, “The fourth beast shall be the fourth kingdom upon earth, which shall be diverse from all kingdoms, and shall devour the whole earth, and shall tread it down, and break it in pieces.” The prophecy then states that this world government will rule the world until the Second Coming.

The New World Order Prophecy

After World War II, The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was formed as a hedge against the advance of communistic Warsaw powers led by the USSR. When Mikhail Gorbachev became the leader of the Soviet Union, he allowed the fall of the Berlin Wall, and ultimately, of the Iron Curtain. World leaders declared that the Cold War was over, and they proclaimed the birth of a New World Order.
When Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1990, President George H. W. Bush put together a UN coalition of 29 nations to fight against Saddam. It was at this time that Bush Sr. made his famous statement that we really do have a chance at the birth of a “New World Order.” This is how he described the Gulf War: “This is not the people of Iraq against the United States. This is Saddam against the world.”

Globalization

After the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, we began hearing new terms like World Community and International Community. David Rockefeller said that a global crisis would have to occur before the world would be willing to accept a New World Order. When the world’s economy began a dramatic downward plunge in 2008, world leaders again proclaimed the need for a New World Order with global economic structures.

The word “globalization” means exactly what it says. It is the process of transitioning the world into a global government. The Commission for Global Governance, created by the United Nations, released a report: Our Global Neighborhood, which affirms a world court, a global tax, and global police force. The U.S. State Department Publication 7277 sets forth a one world police force under the United Nations. When we hear about international law, it is referring to the laws of the international government. When we hear about the World Court, it is referring to the court system that has been created to enforce the laws of the world governmental system. The World Bank, the World Trade Organization, the World Health Organization—all of these powerful world institutions are exactly what they say they are. They are all components of the one-world government, the world government prophesied for the endtime 2,000 years ago.

Very interesting! I knew it was evil but didn't realize it was in the Bible as such, but there you go. Thanks 6 Million Dollar Man! Small groups of humans can't be trusted with that kind of power. God knows that.