Thread: Three-state poll: Crowded field helps Trump, harms Rubio as Cruz surges

Three-state poll: Crowded field helps Trump, harms Rubio as Cruz surges

By Marc Caputo 5:30 a.m. | Dec. 22, 2015

MIAMI — The crowded GOP field is harming Marco Rubio and helping Donald Trump, according to three new polls of likely Republican voters taken in New Hampshire, South Carolina and in Florida that also show Ted Cruz surging.

For the first time, Cruz ties Trump in South Carolina, and he’s also tied for second with Rubio in the Florida senator’s home state, according to a memo on the three surveys, which were conducted after last week’s debate.

The polls were commissioned by Associated Industries of Florida, a pro-business lobby that tracks the race for its largely Republican membership.

The polls' other takeaways: Trump has negative image problems, but they’re not as bad as those of former Florida gov. Jeb Bush, who looks like an overall longshot along with the numerous other GOP candidates.

“As of today this data suggests the race for the Republican nomination is essentially a three-way contest between Donald Trump, Senator Ted Cruz and Senator Marco Rubio,” according to the AIF memo, which was sent Monday to AIF’s members and obtained by POLITICO.

“More specifically data from all three states confirm that Senator Cruz and Rubio find themselves deadlocked in a heated battle for second place, with their image numbers potentially serving as a leading indicator they could become the front runners before too much longer,” according to the AIF memo, authored by the association’s vice president of political operations, Ryan Tyson, who declined comment.

The numbers are particularly striking for Bush, who fares poorly in the polls and whose 1994 running mate, Tom Feeney, leads AIF — an establishment group that counts a number of Bush backers among its members.

Bush runs in fourth in Florida and he’s in single digits and fifth place in New Hampshire and South Carolina, where more Republicans have an unfavorable opinion of him than a favorable one.

The Florida poll of 800 likely Republican voters has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points and was conducted for AIF by the Florida firm of Data Targeting.

The New Hampshire survey (500 respondents with an error margin of 4.4 percentage points) and South Carolina poll (600 respondents; 3.9 margin of error) were conducted by Tel Opinion Research, which is based in Alexandria, Virginia.

The polls, conducted Dec. 17-18, surveyed respondents culled from a voter list who had a history of higher-propensity voting in GOP presidential primary and other races. Respondents were asked an open-ended question concerning whom they supported. The poll did not read a list of names of candidates from which voters picked a choice.

Here’s what they found, according to AIF’s memo:

South Carolina head-to-head race: Cruz and Trump are tied at 27 percent. Rubio and Ben Carson roughly tied at 12 percent and 11 percent each, respectively. Bush had 7 percent support; 5 percent backed other candidates and 11 percent were undecided.

South Carolina second-choice race: Rubio was the fallback candidate for 26 percent, Cruz for 23 percent, Carson for 11 percent and Trump for 9 percent.

South Carolina three-way race: Trump is at 33 percent, Cruz at 32 percent and Rubio gains the most by doubling his numbers to 24 percent.

South Carolina favorable-unfavorable image test: 71 percent have a favorable impression of Cruz and 17 percent an unfavorable impression (a net positive rating of +54 percent). Rubio 70-16 percent; Carson 63-25 percent; Trump 56-37 percent and Bush 42-49 percent (a net negative rating of -7).

New Hampshire head-to-head race: Trump leads with 24 percent, followed by Cruz at 16 percent, Rubio at 14 percent, Chris Christie at 13 percent and Bush at 9 percent. The other candidates pull a combined 13 percent of the vote and 11 percent are undecided.

New Hampshire second-choice race: Cruz was the fallback candidate for 20 percent, Rubio for 19 percent, Christie for 17 percent and Trump for 9 percent.

New Hampshire three-way race: Trump is at 30 percent, Rubio jumps to 28 percent (again, doubling his numbers) and Cruz’s support grows by 10 percentage points to 26 percent.

New Hampshire favorable-unfavorable image test: 69 percent have a favorable impression of Rubio and 18 percent an unfavorable impression (a net positive rating positive rating of +51 percent). Cruz 65-19 percent; Christie 66-22 percent; Carson 52-32 percent; Trump 48-45 and Bush 39-48 (a -9 rating).

Florida head-to-head race: Trump leads with 29 percent (4 percentage-point loss since AIF’s August Florida poll); followed by Cruz 18, who gained the most since August, 15 percentage points. Rubio is essentially tied with him at 17 percent (a gain of 10 points), followed by Bush at 10 percent (a loss of 3 points).

Florida favorable-unfavorable image test: 73 percent have a favorable impression of Rubio and 18 percent an unfavorable impression (a net positive rating positive rating of +55 percent). Cruz 70-18 percent; Carson 67-21 percent; Trump 61-34 percent and Bush 56-36 percent.

In addition to Trump’s relatively poor image compared to Cruz and Rubio, the poll also tested how undecided voters view him compared to the two senators among undecided voters in the three-way race ballots in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

In New Hampshire, Trump had a net-negative rating of -30 compared to Rubio’s +18 and Cruz’s +20. In South Carolina, Trump had a net-negative image rating of -15 compared to Cruz’s +23 and Rubio’s +22.

“If a single candidate emerges as an alternative to Mr. Trump it will not be due to the negatives of Mr. Trump alone,” wrote Tyson in the AIF memo. “Either the field will have to shrink and/or a candidate will have to empathize with these real feelings within the Party and rise on their own merits (as Senator Cruz appears to be doing).”

The memo and data from Tyson reflect the dynamics of the race, where Cruz has sidled up to Trump and warred with Rubio.

The Tyson memo indicates that AIF decided not to spend the extra money to poll a three-way race in Florida because the state’s March 15 primary is so far off and the race will be heavily dependent on what happens in New Hampshire (Feb. 9) and in South Carolina (Feb. 20). Florida’s first absentee ballots are mailed Jan. 30. AIF also didn’t poll Iowa, where other surveys indicate Cruz is pulling ahead of Trump and Rubio is in a distant third place in single digits.

Because the Florida results could be “an outlier,” Tyson wrote, AIF decided to survey New Hampshire and South Carolina as well to put the race in better context for its members.

Though Christie is doing well in New Hampshire, the memo says, the New Jersey governor resembles more of a regional candidate who has spent the lion’s share of his time campaigning in that state because “his current ballot placement in South Carolina suggests that is largely a geographic advantage as he came in at only 2% & 4% on the first & second choice ballot in South Carolina, and only 3% in Florida.”

Rather than “dominating the Republican field” as Trump and news media reports state, Tyson wrote that the candidate’s frontrunner status “is mostly a result of simple mathematics rather than his prowess as a candidate. After all, any candidate who is backed by 25% of a likely electorate will look ‘dominant’ when ~65% of that electorate is split 12 ways and another ~10% remain undecided.”

Earlier in the month, AIF said, it conducted a focus group with likely Republican voters in the St. Petersburg area, home to the state’s most engaged GOP voters. Aside from the poll, Tyson wrote, the “Florida focus group provided the most insight into this subject because it demonstrated that the large field of GOP candidates is likely doing as much or more to enable and sustain Donald Trump’s frontrunner status than anything he himself has done.”

Tyson's analysis suggests Rubio is hurt the most by the presence of Christie, Bush, Carson and the other candidates.

For Florida Republicans, the poll has a measure of bitter irony because it shows that Bush, whose political network fostered Rubio and helped his political career right through his 2010 Senate race, could be costing Rubio a shot at the GOP nomination by virtue of staying in the race and syphoning votes from the senator.

The focus group also drove home the sense of “profound alienation” between Republicans, their party and “elected leaders at virtually all levels of government,” the memo said.

“They also sensed their elected leaders have no interest in the well-being of ordinary Americans but instead perpetuate a government that increasingly disconnects from the needs of the people they serve,” Tyson wrote. “It’s clear that the candidates who best empathize with those sentiments (i.e. Trump & Cruz) will have the best starting position as the 2016 primaries begin.”

http://www.capitalnewyork.com/articl...io-cruz-surges