Millennial Voters Favor Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump and Ben Carson in 2016, Harvard
10:01 am ET
Dec 10, 2015
2016
Millennial Voters Favor Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump and Ben Carson in 2016, Harvard Poll Finds
By Janet Hook
Millennial voters of both parties are leaning toward anti-establishment candidates in the 2016 campaign, a new poll released Thursday finds, giving an edge to Sen. Bernie Sanders, businessman Donald Trump and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson.
The survey of 18- to 29-year-olds by the Harvard Institute of Politics found that among young people who expect to vote in Democratic primaries and caucuses, 35% said their first choice was the party’s frontrunner, Hillary Clinton, while 41% favored her insurgent challenger, Mr. Sanders.
Among likely Republican voters, the top candidates were Mr. Trump, who was first choice for 22% and Mr. Carson with 20%.
All the other candidates were in the single digits, including Sens. Marco Rubio of Florida (7%) and Rand Paul of Kentucky (6%), who have made concerted efforts to reach out to young voters.
Overall this younger generation continues to be predominantly Democratic in its presidential tastes — and even more than it was six months ago, before the 2016 campaign had begun in earnest.
The survey found that 56% of 18- to 29-year-olds prefer a Democrat win the presidential race in 2016, while 36% preferred a Republican. That is five percentage points wider than the institute’s last survey in April, when the split was 55% for a Democrat and 40% were for a Republican.
The spread changed not because support for a Democratic president increased but because support for a GOP president has dropped over the last six months. That drop is almost entirely attributable to a decline among those who identify themselves as independents, who represent a plurality among young voters.
John Della Volpe, director of polling at the Harvard Public Opinion Project, said that was a sign that the opportunity for Republicans to make gains among younger voters in the 2016 “could be waning.”
The poll is the latest in an ongoing project by the Institute of Politics, part of the John F. Kennedy School of Government, which has been surveying young voters since 2000.
The survey of 2,011 young Americans age 18 to 29 was conducted by GFK-KnowledgePanel Oct. 30 – Nov. 9. It has a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.
The survey was conducted before the Nov. 13 terrorist attacks in Paris, though after the attacks the polling team reinterviewed respondents on the question of whether they supported sending U.S. ground troops to combat Islamic State militants. They found that 60% supported sending ground troops and 40% opposed. That is much more hawkish than when the question was first asked before the Paris attacks, when opinion split evenly, 48%-48%.
The generation is divided on their view of the nation’s broadest aspirations. Asked if the American dream is alive or dead for them, nearly half said alive (49%) and the other half (48%) said dead. The most pessimistic voters are those who are Trump supporters, 61% of whom said the dream is dead.
They seem less engaged in politics than young people were in the past. Only 20% considered themselves “politically engaged and active,” down from 25% in fall of 2011. Less than half said they were following the presidential race very or somewhat closely.
Another poll of young voters released Thursday by a separate group finds that the accumulation of student loan debt by this generation looms as a major issue. Young Invincibles, a nonpartisan advocacy group for millennials, conducted a survey of 18- to 34-year-olds and found that 61% of millennials said that a presidential candidate’s position on combatting student debt would be a “major influencer” in deciding their vote. That is a view shared by 74% of Democrats and 44% of Republicans.
“Years of research has proven that student debt is hindering Millennials’ finances,” said Colin Seeberger, an advisor to the group. “Our poll makes clear that student debt is not just a pocketbook issue, but an issue that is intrinsically electoral with the power to resonate across party lines.”
Overall this younger generation continues to be predominantly Democratic in its presidential tastes — and even more than it was six months ago, before the 2016 campaign had begun in earnest.
The survey found that 56% of 18- to 29-year-olds prefer a Democrat win the presidential race in 2016, while 36% preferred a Republican. That is five percentage points wider than the institute’s last survey in April, when the split was 55% for a Democrat and 40% were for a Republican.
The spread changed not because support for a Democratic president increased but because support for a GOP president has dropped over the last six months. That drop is almost entirely attributable to a decline among those who identify themselves as independents, who represent a plurality among young voters.
John Della Volpe, director of polling at the Harvard Public Opinion Project, said that was a sign that the opportunity for Republicans to make gains among younger voters in the 2016 “could be waning.”
The poll is the latest in an ongoing project by the Institute of Politics, part of the John F. Kennedy School of Government, which has been surveying young voters since 2000.
The survey of 2,011 young Americans age 18 to 29 was conducted by GFK-KnowledgePanel Oct. 30 – Nov. 9. It has a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.
The survey was conducted before the Nov. 13 terrorist attacks in Paris, though after the attacks the polling team reinterviewed respondents on the question of whether they supported sending U.S. ground troops to combat Islamic State militants. They found that 60% supported sending ground troops and 40% opposed. That is much more hawkish than when the question was first asked before the Paris attacks, when opinion split evenly, 48%-48%.
The generation is divided on their view of the nation’s broadest aspirations. Asked if the American dream is alive or dead for them, nearly half said alive (49%) and the other half (48%) said dead. The most pessimistic voters are those who are Trump supporters, 61% of whom said the dream is dead.
They seem less engaged in politics than young people were in the past. Only 20% considered themselves “politically engaged and active,” down from 25% in fall of 2011. Less than half said they were following the presidential race very or somewhat closely.
Another poll of young voters released Thursday by a separate group finds that the accumulation of student loan debt by this generation looms as a major issue. Young Invincibles, a nonpartisan advocacy group for millennials, conducted a survey of 18- to 34-year-olds and found that 61% of millennials said that a presidential candidate’s position on combatting student debt would be a “major influencer” in deciding their vote. That is a view shared by 74% of Democrats and 44% of Republicans.
“Years of research has proven that student debt is hindering Millennials’ finances,” said Colin Seeberger, an advisor to the group. “Our poll makes clear that student debt is not just a pocketbook issue, but an issue that is intrinsically electoral with the power to resonate across party lines.”
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/1...rd-poll-finds/
