New poll: Donald Trump still leads, but Ben Carson makes strong gains

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/new-poll...-strong-gains/

CBS News September 14, 2015, 10:37 PM

New poll: Donald Trump still leads, but Ben Carson makes strong gains

By Anthony Salvanto, Jennifer De Pinto, Sarah Dutton and Fred Backus

At 27 percent nationally, Donald Trump maintains his frontrunner status among Republican primary voters, but Ben Carson is now close behind him, a new CBS News/New York Times poll finds.

Carson's support has risen significantly since early August, from 6 percent then, to 23 percent now, putting him in second place. John Kasich and Carly Fiorina have also seen their support rise in this poll, although both remain in single digits.

Some candidates have not fared as well, losing support since August. Jeb Bush (six percent) and Scott Walker (two percent) have now dropped into single digits in this poll. Rick Perry, who announced he was withdrawing his candidacy while the poll was in progress, receives just one percent of Republican primary voters' backing.

Demographic Groups

Trump appeals to many different types of Republican primary voters - but Ben Carson is now a strong challenger among these groups of voters as well.

Trump has a slight edge among the most conservative voters, while the race is close among women and Tea Party supporters. Trump holds a larger lead among men and evangelical voters. And while Trump leads Carson among voters who have not graduated from college, 30 percent to 19 percent, among college graduates, Carson has 29 percent to Trump's 21 percent.

This poll was conducted by telephone September 9-13, 2015 among a random sample of 1,261 adults nationwide, including 1,021 registered voters. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News and The New York Times by SSRS of Media, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.

The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.

Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers.

The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables.

The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly.

The margin of error for the sample of 376 Republican primary voters is 6 percentage points.

This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

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This poll was conducted by telephone September 9-13, 2015 among a random sample of 1,261 adults nationwide, including 1,021 registered voters.

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The margin of error for the sample of 376 Republican primary voters is 6 percentage points.

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That's kind of a small sample for Republicans, out of such a much larger total sample. I don't really understand this, even if the rest of the sample were Democrats for a Democratic poll they haven't released yet? Any thoughts by anyone familiar with why they would have so few Republicans in the Republican sample with such a large % margin of error?

These telephone polls aren't ever so trustworthy for many reasons. However the major one to me is those who end up being called are those who make the list of usually having time during the day to answer questions on the phone for 10 minutes. The majority of those on the lists are Dem affiliated and considering the polls are often done throughout the day its either lonely stay at home spouse or those not working at all (welfare peeps likely) who WANT to voice their opinion. The Rep side more often consists of elderly who are retired. Further a bigger majority of those answering the polls unless its a hot topic for them personally tend to be female.

So what it comes down to is while they say its a *random* poll they already have a solid idea what they will get because they know what kind of people the lists are made of and where they tend to sit on issues already. This is done on both sides and is very easy to manipulate. I'd even trust internet polls that IP track more then most of the phone polls. I tend to find the ones on the street to be a bit more honest assuming truthful and don't cherry pick who they ask but that can also be manipulated by simply choosing the right city or urban area to go asking your poll.

Id never trust a word that CBS News/New York Times told me. Ive seen both of them lie so often and work to conceal the mass atrocities being committed by illegal aliens against American citizens that I just give them no credence.

I do believe that Carson is probably the fall back plan for the Bush power faction.

W

Bernie Sanders leading Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire poll

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By Eugene Scott, CNN
Updated 4:17 PM ET, Tue September 15, 2015

Story highlights

• Sanders is beating Clinton in first primary state, according to a new poll
• Poll allows unaffiliated voters to participate

Washington (CNN)Bernie Sanders is leading Hillary Clinton by 7 points in New Hampshire, a new poll Tuesday shows.

The Vermont independent senator is on top mostly because of his support with unaffiliated voters, who are allowed in New Hampshire to take part in the primary of their choice. The race is tighter among registered Democrats.

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With 43% of the vote, Clinton is slightly leading among Democrats, according to the Monmouth University poll. Sanders has 39% of the vote among the group.

Sanders receives 49% of support among registered independents and new voters compared to Clinton's 26%.

Joe Biden, who is considering whether to jump in the race, holds 13%, with 2% supporting Martin O'Malley and 1% each for Lincoln Chafee, Larry Lessig, and Jim Webb.

"In what may surprise some observers, Sanders has an advantage over Clinton among both men (44% to 34%) and women (42% to 38%) in the New Hampshire primary," according to a Monmouth statement. "Sanders leads Clinton among voters under 50 years old by 46% to 35% and voters age 50 to 64 by 44% to 34%, while Clinton edges Sanders by 42% to 35% among those age 65 and older."

The Monmouth University poll was conducted over the phone from Sep. 10-13, 2015 with 400 New Hampshire voters likely to vote in the Democratic presidential primary. This sample has a margin of error of +4.9 percent.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/15/politi...oll/index.html

The more Ben Carson opens his mouth the more I distrust him. On immigration he talks in circles, yes, no, maybe. One of the few things about his immigration policy that is clear--illegal alien squatters will not be made to go home and he will give them permanent legal status. That folks is amnesty. To me he seems to be another Bush type RINO.

I can see nothing good coming from Carson’s campaign. He is a faux conservative who is siphoning the anti professional politician vote away from Trump. If Mr. Carson sabotages Trump’s campaign I will never forgive him or his supporters. They are working at cross purposes to Trump and aiding the establishment effort to stop him. We have a good thing going in Trump and Mr. Carson can ruin it. If he does I will never vote for him, and I think there probably will be millions who will feel the same as I do.

Donald Trump is probably our last chance to stop the suicide of mass, uncontrolled alien migration. It is certain that Ben Carson will not do what is necessary to stop illegal alien invasion but instead he will make things worse with his own version of amnesty.

And no, he should not be vice president precisely because of what I have just stated here.

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Originally Posted by csarbww

The more Ben Carson opens his mouth the more I distrust him. On immigration he talks in circles, yes, no, maybe. One of the few things about his immigration policy that is clear--illegal alien squatters will not be made to go home and he will give them permanent legal status. That folks is amnesty. To me he seems to be another Bush type RINO.

I can see nothing good coming from Carson’s campaign. He is a faux conservative who is siphoning the anti professional politician vote away from Trump. If Mr. Carson sabotages Trump’s campaign I will never forgive him or his supporters. They are working at cross purposes to Trump and aiding the establishment effort to stop him. We have a good thing going in Trump and Mr. Carson can ruin it. If he does I will never vote for him, and I think there probably will be millions who will feel the same as I do.

Donald Trump is probably our last chance to stop the suicide of mass, uncontrolled alien migration. It is certain that Ben Carson will not do what is necessary to stop illegal alien invasion but instead he will make things worse with his own version of amnesty.

And no, he should not be vice president precisely because of what I have just stated here.

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Trump is without a doubt our last chance. And I'm with you, I would never support Carson for Vice President either. He needs to go back to his charity business handing out scholarships in exchange for donations to his "charity" and writing books about himself.

You know, most people really see Ben Carson through the actor, Cuba Gooding,Jr. because of the movie. And in real life, there is no little comparison between the two.

New Hampshire poll: Ben Carson within 4 points of Donald Trump

By Eugene Scott, CNN
Updated 12:33 PM ET, Wed September 16, 2015

Watch the Republican presidential debates at 6 p.m. and 8 p.m. ET this Wednesday live on CNN and CNNgo, and join the conversation at #CNNDebate.

Washington (CNN)Ben Carson is closing in on Donald Trump in New Hampshire, according to a new poll out Wednesday, just hours before the candidates will face off against each other in the second Republican primary debate.

Trump is still leading GOP candidates and has 22% of likely voters in the New Hampshire Republican primary, according to the WBUR survey. But Carson has garnered 18% of support, bringing him within 4 points of Trump. Fiorina has 11%, pushing Bush out of the top 3. The former Florida governor and Ohio Gov. John Kasich both polled at 9%.

RELATED: Ben Carson draws close behind Donald Trump in national poll

Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, Scott Walker and Mike Huckabee all rounded out the top of the field by polling in between 5 and 1%.

The top three -- Trump, Carson and Fiorina -- have been billed as Washington outsiders for having practically no experience in elected office and having resumes that draw from the private sector. Of those polled, just 24% called experience in other elected office a "very important consideration," compared to 83% who said bringing "real change to Washington" is important.

About 9 in 10 respondents are previous primary voters. The poll was conducted using live telephone interviews Sept. 12-14, among 404 likely voters, and the margin is plus-or-minus 4.9 percentage points.

RELATED: 7 things to watch at the CNN Republican debate

http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/16/politi...ire/index.html