Obama - Reelection is the highest priority

He's taking a major gamble w/ immigration, and he's bet his second term on it ...

DerailAmnesty.com Dissertations: Reelection Uber Alles

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Reelection Uber Alles
Barack Obama is all in. He's made his bet and what he has wagered is the remainder of his career as an elected office holder.


Here's the situation: In 2008, Mr. Obama did very well on election day with college educated women and independents. He received 43% of votes from whites, as well. This November, however, he will not duplicate the success he enjoyed with these groups four years ago. The president will draw a smaller percentage in each of the above-listed categories. Obama has lost lots of those voters and he knows he won't be getting them back. Their allegiance largely depended upon the performance of the economy, and he royally fumbled that ball when it was tossed in his direction. Consequently, six trillion dollars in national debt later, and desperate for a second term, he is counting on reenergizing his base, and hoping GOP members are sufficiently unenthusiastic about Mitt Romney and show up on election day in small numbers.

Here's the plan: Amp up gays, Latinos and extreme leftists to compensate for the votes he's lost among whites, college educated women and political independents. Hispanics are especially important as they may make the difference in several swing states.


Here's the gamble: American voters, for the most part, hug the political center. In order to energize the gays, the browns and the liberals, he has taken very unpopular positions with the majority of voters in the U.S. in relation to two hot-button topics - Obamacare and Arizona's immigration laws. Polls repeatedly show that likely voters dislike the former and approve of the latter. Rather than hug the center, and try to partner with Arizona to resolve that state's illegal alien dilemma however, Mr. Obama has seized upon the announcement of the decision by the U.S. Supreme Court to attempt to create a de facto amnesty. Upon learning that the Court had upheld a key provision of SB 1070, allowing law enforcement officers to question a suspect about immigration status, he promptly had the Department of Homeland Security discontinue the 287g federal government/state police joint program in Arizona. He's made it very clear. Arizona will receive no help getting rid of illegal aliens from the federal government.

Here's the problem: What he's doing is unfair. Most members of Code Pink, the National Council of La Raza, Act Up!, and MEchA probably don't think so, but they aren't representative of the American mainstream. Joe Average doesn't like the prospect of one million illegal aliens being given work permits when unemployment is above 8%. He feels sympathy for a state inundated with illegal alien crime and related expenses. In addition, many moderates have qualms about the fashion in which his healthcare plan was ramrodded through congress in such a partisan manner.

Here's the question: Will the president succeed in exciting enough voters to compensate for the votes he's already lost because of the economy AND make up for the votes he'll lose because of taking the unpopular positions on immigration, health care and gay marriage?


Here's reality: Few people consider him a moderate or "uniter" anymore, as he presented himself in '08. After his actions relating to immigration and healthcare, there's no going back. With about 130 days until the election, he is what he has presented and there is no wiggle room. As a matter of perception, Barack Obama is the Far Left.

Will Americans elect someone this far out of the political mainstream? Who knows, maybe the Harvard grad has calculated correctly but at this point, there's no going back. He either wins as Barack The Champion Of Government Controlled Medicine And Amnesty For Illegal Aliens ... or he retires to a life of high priced speaking engagements and book tours. Make no mistake, however. As of yesterday, Mr. Obama is all in.

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The thing about betting his re-election on illegal immigrant issue that is troubling to me is that he has set a mood among many voters somewhat scary, also. That mood is "anybody but Obama." That mood does not lead to informed and considered opinion ballots responsibly cast.

I'm not voting for Obama. But I'm not voting any more times than I already haave for someone that cannot/will not address issues clearly enough for my understading of their position.

It is critical that this election lead us to highly qualified and respected leadership. It must be someone that a very good sized majority will be content if not happy to follow Will the real candid candidate please stand up?,

Alan Colmes, a liberal commentator who once shared Sean Hannity's program on Fox said the other day that this was a smart political move by Obama. I do not think so. Obama took 67 per cent of the Hispanic vote in 2008. What makes him think he is going to significantly improve on that? He may have saved 5 or 10 per cent , i.e., guaranteed he would still take 67 to 70 per cent or so vice maybe only 57 to 60 per cent given the recent criticism of his policies by Hispanic activists.

The Latino vote in 2008 represented about 9 per cent of the total vote. To keep the math simple let's say it will constitute 10 per cent of the vote in 2012. Let's pretend that Obama's strategy is somewhat successful. If Obama increases his percentage of the Hispanic vote by 5 per cent his overall vote total would only be 0.5 per cent greater than in 2008. On the other hand, 90 per cent of the vote for him in 2008 was from African Americans, Caucasians, Asians, Eurasian, Native Americans, etc. If only 2 per cent of these are ticked off enough to just not vote, he would lose about 1.8 per cent of his total vote in 2008. So he is risking over 3 times as many votes as he can probably grab with the new policy. Does not seem like a sound political strategy to me.

There are a lot of assumptions here, but I believe it is extremely difficult to improve much over 67 per cent. Moreover, recent polls have also shown significant downturns in the likely support of those groups that make up the 90 percent of the vote he got in 2008. My assumption above about the 1.8 per cent loss of voters was also a conservative estimate because I just assumed those people would not show up at the polls at all. However, if a significant number of those do show up and vote for Romney, each one of those counts double against Obama because he lost them and Romney got them. The only way I see Obama coming out ahead here is in Nevada and New Mexico, which he won in 2008 and the Hispanic vote will likely be the determining factor in 2012 as well. That would hurt Romney, but he can win if he takes Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia whether he takes Nevada and New Mexico or not. Obama's policy might not be the determining factor in those three states normally, but I am certain it will not help him either, and coupled with his other baggage (shutting down coal, oil, and fracking operations; economic recession; current (and likely future) scandal; etc the new immigration policy could well become the determining factor for those 3 states.

He will say anything and do anything to stay in power because after 4 more years it can't be "changed" back. JMO

We'll really be a in full blown dictatorship if he gets back in. It's bad, but it can still get worse.

If Americans didn't wake up with Obama's last two back door amnesties and then snubbing his nose at the SC decision on sb1070 by refusing to pick up any illegal aliens when Arizona calls them unless they have a serious criminal record then I don't know what will. Even Democrats should be appalled by that.