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02-21-2016, 04:28 PM #1
Opinion: The math adds up to Clinton versus Trump
Opinion: The math adds up to Clinton versus Trump
Published: Feb 21, 2016 12:39 p.m. ET
It’s becoming clear that the race this autumn will be between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton
By Steve Goldstein, D.C. bureau chief
The delegates awarded so far in the presidential race are effectively trivial, but after Saturday night’s results it’s growing clear that the race this autumn will be between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.
While the more contested race is among the Republicans, let’s for a moment examine the Democratic field. It wasn’t really a fair match to begin with due to the superdelegates who had already been pledged to the former secretary of state.
Clinton has a 502-to-70 lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, with 2,383 needed to secure the nomination. Put another way, Sanders needs to win 57% of the remaining delegates to capture the nomination.
That’s the kind of split that seems pretty much unimaginable. After a triumphant Sanders result in New Hampshire, Clinton won by a 53%-to-47% margin in Nevada.
Nevada doesn’t stand up to, say, Ohio as a bellwether, but it’s far more representative of the rest of the country — and, in particular, of Democratic voters — than New Hampshire. It’s also notable that Nevada was arguably ground zero of the housing crisis, a point Sanders made in his ads there. If an anti-Wall Street pitch didn’t work in Nevada, where is it going to have traction?
Republicans don’t have the same superdelegate complexities; instead, they’ve had a nearly infinite number of actual candidates. With former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush suspending his campaign after South Carolina, the race is becoming more defined.
It’s Trump’s to lose, even as there’s increasing evidence that he will struggle to get past 35% support in polls. His 61 delegates in the bag aren’t much — over 1,200 are needed for victory — but with Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Ben Carson still in the race, the real-estate tycoon will continue to notch victories. One negative for Trump is that the mostly Southern states in what’s come to be called Super Duper Tuesday award delegates proportionally rather than on a winner-take-all basis.
One could conceivably come up with a picture in mid-March after the Florida and Ohio primaries — both winner-take-all affairs — where Rubio, Kasich and Cruz all are within striking distance of one another in the delegate count. That could, importantly, keep all three in the race, where they’d continue to split the anti-Trump voters.
The last stages of the race for the nomination are overwhelmingly winner-take-all primaries — which, in a divided field, again, works to Trump’s advantage.
Trump isn’t in as enviable a position as Clinton. He likely will need to win the Republican nomination outright, as it seems improbable that a brokered convention would be to his advantage. And he’s faced relatively little fire from his adversaries, who, one would imagine, eventually will start to campaign more negatively against Trump.
All that said, it doesn’t look like Cruz, Rubio and Kasich are in any hurry to help one another by dropping out. In a divided field, Trump is in pole position.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the...ump-2016-02-21A Nation Without Borders Is Not A Nation - Ronald Reagan
Save America, Deport Congress! - Judy
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02-21-2016, 07:14 PM #2
There are going to be lots of Bernie supporters who will lose faith in the Dems, with a Hillary nomination. They are not all radicals, many of them are just people who think certain institutions run roughshod over the ordinary person. And that is where Trump, also, is getting a lot of his strength. Trump could walk away with all of the cards, if he continues to broaden his appeal.
"Men of low degree are vanity, Men of high degree are a lie. " David
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02-21-2016, 07:28 PM #3
I agree! I think a lot of Bernie supporters would like Trump because he wants to fix our trade, work on reducing the interest cost of college loans as well as reduce the cost of college itself. Trump thinks and I thought it even before he said it that these college costs are out of control and it is because the loans are available and the kids get stuck with paying for over-priced college educations. It's a terrible situation and the colleges are to blame.
A Nation Without Borders Is Not A Nation - Ronald Reagan
Save America, Deport Congress! - Judy
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