Thread: LA TTMES USC POLL Trump Leads by 4%!!!

LA Times USC Poll

TRUMP 46.6% (47)

Clinton 43.2% (43)

Trump Leads 4%

http://cesrusc.org/election/

About the Survey✝

The USC Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election "Daybreak" Poll is part of the ongoing Understanding America Study: (UAS) at the University of Southern California’s (USC) Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research, in partnership with the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics and the Los Angeles Times. Every day, we invite one-seventh of the members of the UAS election panel to answer three predictive questions: What is the percent chance that… (1) you will vote in the presidential election? (2) you will vote for Clinton, Trump, or someone else? and (3) Clinton, Trump or someone else will win? As their answers come in, we update the charts daily (just after midnight) with an average of all of the prior week’s responses. To find out more about what lies behind the vote, each week we also ask respondents one or two extra questions about their preferences and values. The team responsible for the USC Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election Poll four years ago developed the successful RAND Continuous Presidential Election Poll, which was based on the same methodology.

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The USC Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election Poll was initiated and financed by the Center for Economic and Social Research.



http://cesrusc.org/election/

California poll: Trump’s numbers dropping into ‘uncharted territory’

Less than two weeks before Election Day, Hillary Clinton and Kamala Harris have commanding leads and propositions to legalize marijuana and levy a $2-per-pack tax increase on cigarettes appear heading for approval.


By MATTHEW ARTZ | martz@bayareanewsgroup.com
PUBLISHED: October 26, 2016 at 9:00 pm | UPDATED: October 28, 2016 at 3:28 pm

HIGHLIGHTS

• In the presidential race, Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 54 percent to 28 percent.
• In the U.S. Senate race, state Attorney General Kamala Harris leads Rep. Loretta Sanchez, D-Orange, 42 percent to 20 percent. Excluding the 18 percent of voters who said they would not cast a ballot in a race between two Democrats, Harris leads 51 percent to 24 percent.
• Proposition 64, a measure to legalize marijuana, led with 55 percent supporting it and 38 percent opposed.

Donald Trump is careening toward a historically poor showing in California, a prospect that has left several GOP congressmen fearful for their seats and Democrats hopeful they can regain a supermajority in the Legislature.


According to a new poll from the Public Policy Institute of California, in just one month Democrat Hillary Clinton’s lead over Trump has soared from 16 to 26 points as the brash billionaire’s campaign has imploded amid allegations that he’s a serial groper. He now has the support of only 28 percent of likely California voters, the poll found.

The contest for retiring U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer’s seat is also unlikely to deliver much drama on election night, the poll found. California Attorney General Kamala Harris leads Loretta Sanchez, an Orange County congresswoman, by 22 points.

Ballot measures to legalize marijuana and increase the tax on a pack of cigarettes by $2 also continue to command strong majorities, despite some softening of support, according to the poll.
Prop. 64 Supporters Launch Grassroots Effort For Legal Pot Push
CBS Sacramento

Only 46 percent of Republicans are more excited than usual to cast ballots in the presidential election. That’s down from 70 percent four years ago and 11 points less than the 57 percent of Democrats who told PPIC survey takers that they were more excited than usual to vote.

A staggering 50 percent of Republicans say they now have an unfavorable view of their party, and 60 percent were unsatisfied with their choices for president, the poll found.

Those figures must be “worrisome” for Republicans in competitive congressional districts, said PPIC President and CEO Mark Baldassare. “You’re used to having an enthusiasm gap in your favor, and you don’t have that now,” he said.

While Democrats have little chance of winning the 30 seats needed to retake the House, they could make a bigger dent than expected in California with four Republican incumbents now facing competitive races: Jeff Denham and David Valadao in the Central Valley, Steve Knight in Los Angeles County, and Darrell Issa in the San Diego suburbs.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report recently declared three of those races “tossups” while downgrading Valadao’s seat from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.”

Local GOP candidates were never going to get much help from a ballot in which two Democrats are competing for the open U.S. Senate seat, and no ballot measure has captured the imagination of Republican voters. But Trump’s dismal poll numbers makes their plight even more difficult, said Bill Whalen, a former Republican operative who is now a research fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution.

“Twenty-eight percent is uncharted territory,” he said, noting that the worst showing by a Republican presidential nominee in California was Alfred Landon, who won 31 percent of the vote in 1936. John McCain and Mitt Romney each won 37 percent.

“Republicans should be concerned,” Whalen said. “The numbers are dreadful.”

Trump could even impact the state Legislature because Democrats need to win just two Assembly seats and one Senate seat to regain a two-thirds majority. If they succeed, Democrats would be able to raise taxes, override vetoes and put constitutional measures on the ballot without a single Republican vote.

Several Democratic candidates have sought to tie their opponents to Trump — even those who have said they wouldn’t vote for him. “It is having a negative impact,” the Assembly’s GOP caucus leader, Chad Mayes, told CALmatters. “It makes these races more competitive than they otherwise would be.”

Some GOP strategists, however, say they remain hopeful because early voting figures don’t show much of a drop-off among Republican voters.

Republicans account for 28 percent of vote-by-mail voters and so far have sent in 31 percent of completed ballots, according to Los Angeles County-based Political Data Inc.

Four years ago, GOP voters accounted for 32 percent of absentee voters and 36 percent of early ballots.

“There is a Democratic bump going on, but it’s not nearly as pronounced as the enthusiasm quotient would indicate,” said Wayne Johnson, a Sacramento-based Republican strategist.

The poll’s biggest shift came in the U.S. Senate race: Harris’ lead jumped from 7 points last month to 22 points this month.
Despite the large numbers of uncommitted voters, Baldassare couldn’t think of any precedent for a Sanchez upset. “When you start at 20 percent today, how to do you get to 50 percent in a two-person race?” he said.

The tobacco industry also appears to be facing defeat in its battle to crush the steep hike in California’s tobacco tax.
Proposition 56, which the industry has spent more than $70 million to defeat with a flood of ads that fact checkers have called highly misleading, has the backing of 56 percent of voters, the poll found. Only 38 percent said they planned to vote against the tax.

Bill Carrick, a Democratic strategist who ran a failed tobacco tax hike in 2004, said the industry’s message might be getting diluted by the sheer volume of political ads flooding the airwaves, including pro-Proposition 56 ads funded by Tom Steyer, a San Francisco billionaire whose mother died of lung cancer.

“I think Tom has given them a fighting chance,” he said. “In 2004, we just were getting pounded without much capacity to respond.”

The PPIC poll showed a slight decline for Proposition 64, a measure to legalize recreational marijuana from 60 percent to 55 percent, but Baldassare said it was still in a strong position to win. So is Proposition 55, an extension of a tax on wealthy residents, which has 59 percent support. But Proposition 51, a $9 billion school bond, is struggling. The poll found 46 percent of voters supportive of the bond and 41 percent against it.

http://www.mercurynews.com/2016/10/2...ted-territory/

LOL!!! JD2, the LA Times USC Poll is a national poll, not a state poll of California. But don't worry, I'm pretty sure Hillary is going to win California. She just isn't going to win the election.

Trump 46.9 (47)
Clinton 43.3 (43)

Trump grows 4 point lead!!

http://cesrusc.org/election/

Jim Hoft Nov 1st, 2016 10:42 am



THIS WILL KEEP THE CLINTON CARTEL UP LATE AT NIGHT–

Donald Trump is up nearly 4 points in the latest LA Times-USC Dornsife Poll.

AND THE TREND LINE SHOWS THE RACE IS ABOUT TO BREAK WIDE OPEN!



http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016...eak-wide-open/

You should have seen Harold Ford Jr this morning on Morning Joe when they reported the ABC Washington Post Poll showing Trump was 1% ahead of Clinton. It was priceless. If we can get a video of that we should!!