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Thread: Poll: Donald Trump surges to 32% support

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  1. #1
    Senior Member Judy's Avatar
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    Poll: Donald Trump surges to 32% support

    Poll: Donald Trump surges to 32% support

    By Jennifer Agiesta, CNN Polling Director

    Updated 7:55 AM ET, Thu September 10, 2015

    Washington (CNN)Donald Trump has become the first Republican presidential candidate to top 30% support in the race for the Republican nomination, according to a new CNN/ORC Poll, which finds the businessman pulling well away from the rest of the GOP field.

    Trump gained 8 points since August to land at 32% support, and has nearly tripled his support since just after he launched his campaign in June. The new poll finds former neurosurgeon Ben Carson rising 10 points to land in second place with 19%. Together, these two non-politicians now hold the support of a majority of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, and separately, both are significantly ahead of all other competitors.

    Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush stands in third place with 9%, down 4 points since August, and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz holds fourth place with 7%. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker follow at 5%, with all other candidates at 3% or less, including Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who notched the only other statistically significant shift in the poll by falling 5 points since August.

    Trump's gains come most notably among two groups that had proven challenging for him in the early stages of his campaign -- women and those with college degrees. While he gained just 4 points among men in the last month (from 27% in August to 31% now), he's up 13 points among women, rising from 20% in August to 33% now. Trump has also boosted his share of the vote among college graduates, increasing his support among those with degrees from 16% in August to 28% now. Among those without degrees, he stands at 33%, just slightly higher than the 28% support he had in August.

    RELATED: Carson questions authenticity of Trump's faith

    Trump has also catapulted ahead of the rest of the field among Republicans who back the tea party movement, from 27% support in August to 41% now. Among that group in the new poll, Carson follows with 21%, and Cruz, another candidate with an anti-Washington message, holds third with 11%. No other candidate tops 5% among tea partiers.

    Carson's gains, meanwhile, have come chiefly among core partisans -- he's up 13 points among Republicans and 11 points among conservatives -- and he runs closest to Trump among white evangelicals (32% back Trump, 28% Carson), a key voting bloc within the Republican primary electorate.

    Carson also has enthusiasm at his side. Republicans are more than twice as likely to say they would be enthusiastic with Carson at the top of the ticket than if Rubio, Cruz, Walker or Bush led the GOP into 2016, and while he and Trump are about even in enthusiasm (43% would be enthusiastic if Carson got the nod, 40% if Trump did), fewer say they would be disappointed if Carson emerged the victor (20% would be dissatisfied or upset if Carson won, 32% if Trump did).

    Still, most Republican voters (51%) think Trump is most likely to emerge as the GOP winner, well ahead of the 19% who think Bush will top the party ticket and 11% who think Carson will. In a July poll, 14% of Republican voters said they thought Walker was most likely to wind up the winner, in the new poll, that figure stands at just 1%.

    Support for the "outsider" contingent of Trump, Carson and to some extent businesswoman Carly Fiorina (who hasn't built on her post-debate boomlet in this poll, she has just 3% support) rests more on their positions on the issues than their experience outside of Washington.

    Among those backing one of those three candidates without experience in elective office, 75% say they back them because of their views on the issues, 16% because of their on-the-job experience and 7% because they dislike the other candidates. Among those backing candidates who have previously been elected to office, 34% say their experience is the main draw, 51% issue positions, and 14% say it's due to dislike of the other candidates.

    Although Bush's support for the nomination has dipped only slightly since the August poll, there are few positive signs for a man once seen as the front-runner for the nomination. The 19% who think he's most likely to win the party's nomination is down from 31% in July. Nearly half of Republicans (47%) say they would be dissatisfied or upset should he win the nomination, and just 16% say they would be enthusiastic about his candidacy if he did win. And his push to be the candidate of economic growth hasn't resonated: Just 7% who call the economy an extremely important issue say they would back him for the Republican nomination.

    As Trump and Carson have gained, Republican voters have begun to gain enthusiasm for the coming presidential election. While 28% described themselves as "extremely enthusiastic" about the election in July and August, that's now climbed to 34%, while deep enthusiasm among Democrats has dipped from 33% to 28%.

    Trump's growth in the field has also come alongside an increase in attention to the issue of illegal immigration. A majority of Republicans now call the issue extremely important to their vote for president, 51% now call it extremely important, up from 39% in a June CNN/ORC poll. Among that group, Trump holds a wide lead, with 42% support compared with 17% for Carson, 10% for Cruz, 9% for Bush and 5% for Walker.

    The CNN/ORC Poll was conducted by telephone September 4-8 among a random national sample of 1,012 adults. This sample included 930 interviews with registered voters, 474 of whom were self-identified Republicans or Republican-leaning independents. For results among all registered voters, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Among Republican voters, it is plus or minus 4.5 points.
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  2. #2
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    I predict that Donald Trump will do quite well with the lady voters. Studies have shown that most people vote for a candidate because they like him, not as in liking him because of his stand on the issues, like him as a person.

    Donald Trump is very much the Alpha male. Women’s lib boohooing about how evil men are supposed to be can not override the response of a healthy woman to a strong man. Women are psychologically hard wired to be like that. Sorry but there are scientific studies that have established the profound difference in the way men and women see the world, women responding favorably to a positive, confident, take charge man is part of that psychology.

    To win the woman’s vote Trump only needs to be himself. The ladies will vote accordingly.
    Last edited by csarbww; 09-10-2015 at 11:44 PM.

  3. #3
    Senior Member Captainron's Avatar
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    I really CAN'T get excited about anything anymore. Politicians never keep their word, but I guess we can hope for a miracle. I am finding out that it is just flat out harder to exist----I learned a long time ago that no-one---repeat no one---is ever satisfied with what they have, they always want more. And we are seeing not only companies lobbying hard for cheaper workers. mom and pop businesses everywhere are doing the same thing. So the GOP is FOR small business? They are also the ones undermining our immigration standards.

    And then, everywhere you are seeing cheaper---and consequently, defective---products. If not the whole company, then parts are outsourced to China. I was helping some GOP campaigner and because they couldn't put up signs w/o the wind blowing them over I got metal fence stakes. The first ones from a local hardware store were good steel. The next ones---to save a dollar per each---must have had bad Chinese crap metal---because we couldn't drill holes without breaking drill bits, so it cost more in the long run! I bought a Chevy Aveo---(I know its made in Korea but at least its American label) and its got some super cheap parts, that are downright dangerous. And a lot of GM vehicles have this electronic, throttle position sensor (Lord knows what is wrong with fuel injection or even carburetors?) and these go haywire, sometimes with awful and possibly deadly consequences, such as immediate loss of power at freeways speeds!!

    So instead of refining and making something less trouble free, they switch to an entirely new system---and then its watch out for YOURSELF!!! And the parts are made in some cheap Chinese factory. Everywhere I go, as a consumer, I'm faced with deceptive packaging and cheap, defective parts, mostly made outside the US. And then the US companies are begging for more foreign workers, and the liberal politicians are drumming up their propaganda campaign on their behalf.

    Just LOOK at where we will be in another 20 years if this goes on. Forget about war---Americans will be battling for their lives at the cash register!! I wonder if anyone in Washington actually gets this!!
    "Men of low degree are vanity, Men of high degree are a lie. " David
    Join our efforts to Secure America's Borders and End Illegal Immigration by Joining ALIPAC's E-Mail Alerts network (CLICK HERE)

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    I have noticed the same things. I am old enough to remember when Honeywell products were actually made in the USA and they like cheap Timex watches ran forever without trouble. Now no matter what you buy, from a coffee maker to a toaster it does not last very long, and guess what it is made in China or Mexico. Not only are we paying the same price for crap that is inferior to the old USA made products but we are loosing domestic jobs to the producers of that crap.

    Trump is the only candidate who is speaking to that general decline of products and related jobs. Yes he could be a con man but my best judgment is that he is a genuine patriot. We should have learned by now that the political elitist are not going to change things so our best chance is an outsider like Trump. That excludes faux outsiders like Ben Carson who, if you listen carefully, is just another RINO who simply has not previously won an election.

    Trump in 2016, what do you have to loose?
    Last edited by csarbww; 09-11-2015 at 12:25 AM.

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