Poll: Outsiders Donald Trump, Ben Carson Still Leading GOP Race

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/0...ding-gop-race/


12:13 pm ET
Sep 22, 2015
2016
Poll: Outsiders Donald Trump, Ben Carson Still Leading GOP Race

By Patrick O'Connor

Last week’s Republican presidential debate didn’t appear to shake a fundamental truth about the 2016 contest. The outsiders are still in charge.

Donald Trump still leads the Republican field, at 23%, virtually unchanged from August, according to a new national survey of nearly 2,000 registered voters commissioned by the conservative media outlets Hot Air and Townhall Media Group.

Retired pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson and former Hewlett-Packard Co. chief executive Carly Fiorina both gained the most ground, with nearly 15% and 10%, respectively, according to the survey of 626 registered Republicans who plan to vote in the GOP contest.

Mrs. Fiorina was also the clear winner of the second GOP candidates’ debate last Wednesday night the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, Calif., with 46% of likely Republican voters giving her the nod. Mr. Trump’s consistent lead in the survey is noteworthy because opinion-makers with both news organizations have feuded with the celebrity real-estate mogul recently.

The poll underscores a now-durable trend in the 2016 White House race: Prior experience in elected office is more of a drawback than a benefit. Less than 5% of Republicans considered former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush their top pick, despite his pedigree and financial advantage – two traditional advantages in a GOP nominating contest.

Less than 2% of Republican primary voters listed Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker as their top pick. Mr. Walker dropped out of the race on Monday night.

The numbers among Democratic primary voters further bolster the argument that, as it looks now, 2016 is shaping up to be the year of the outsider. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders now leads former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, thanks to an edge with Democratic-leaning independent voters. (They are essentially tied among Democrats.)

The big cautionary note from this online poll, conducted by Survey Monkey, is that more than a fifth of all Republican primary voters say they have not yet made up their minds in the contest. That’s down from 30% a month earlier, but the tally serves as a further reminder than the race remains volatile. Hot Air and Townhall Media are both owned by Salem Media, which hosted the second GOP debate with CNN.

The survey included some bad news for conservative Republicans who are threatening to bring the federal government to another standstill over money for Planned Parenthood. Some 64% of registered voters oppose efforts to block federal funding from going to Planned Parenthood, compared with the 26% who support that fight.

The pickle for GOP leaders is that six-in-10 Republicans support defunding the women’s health organization, while independent voters overwhelmingly oppose such a maneuver, 61%-27%. Nine in 10 Democrats oppose blocking funding.

The poll was conducted Sept. 18-22, giving voters some time to digest the debate. They surveyed a random sample of 1,978 registered voters around the country. The margin of error for the whole sample was +/- three percentage points, and the margin of error for the Democratic and Republican subgroups was +/- four points.

Republicans elected to government political positions previously are going to great length to prove that they do not favor freedom of speech. Is there anyone other than DJT and I who believe in Carson's right to express his non-choice for high office? This is only one of multiple times that the republicans have in this campaign tried to squelch freedom of speech. At election times that is very noteworthy!! Those candidates cannot claim any faith in the Constitution, and I think now they are the majority of that party's candidates, aren't they.?