Poll: Trump leads Clinton by 3 in North Carolina
Poll: Trump leads Clinton by 3 in North Carolina
By Steven Shepard
09/08/16 12:30 PM EDT
Donald Trump holds a slight lead over Hillary Clinton in North Carolina, according to a new poll released Thursday — the first nonpartisan, live-interview survey to show the Republican ahead this cycle.
The poll, from Suffolk University in Boston, puts Trump ahead of Clinton among likely voters, 44 percent to 41 percent, within the margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson is at 4 percent, while 11 percent were undecided or refused to answer.
Earlier polls have tilted slightly toward Clinton, who still holds a 2.6-point lead in POLITICO’s Battleground States polling average in North Carolina, 45.4 percent to 42.8 percent. That includes a CBS News/YouGov survey released earlier this week that gave Clinton a 4-point advantage in the state.
The Suffolk poll won't be the only look at the race in North Carolina on Tuesday: Another northeastern school, Quinnipiac University in Connecticut, will release a North Carolina poll later in the afternoon.
Unlike other surveys, the Suffolk poll shows Trump is better liked than Clinton among likely North Carolina voters, though neither is popular: 41 percent view Trump favorably, compared with just 37 percent who have a favorable opinion of Clinton. Accordingly, 49 percent have an unfavorable opinion of Trump, less than the 55 percent who view Clinton unfavorably.
And Trump’s advantages with the demographic groups that favor him outweigh Clinton’s with her strongest voters. Trump leads by 21 points among male voters, 53 percent to 32 percent — running stronger than Clinton’s 13-point edge among female voters, 49 percent to 36 percent.
Trump also leads by a wide margin among white voters, 57 percent to 28 percent. Among African-American voters, Clinton leads, 84 percent to 7 percent.
Also a break from other polls: Trump runs stronger with self-identified Republicans (86 percent) than Clinton does with Democrats (78 percent). Independents tilt toward Trump, too, 46 percent to 29 percent.
In the closely watched Senate race, incumbent GOP Sen. Richard Burr has a modest advantage over Democrat Deborah Ross, 41 percent to 37 percent. But a combined 22 percent are undecided, refused to answer or chose the Libertarian candidate, suggesting Burr’s reelection is far from secure.
The Suffolk University poll, which surveyed 500 likely voters, was conducted Sept. 5-7, including interviews on Labor Day.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-...arolina-227888
