Thread: Polls Show Donald Trump Well-Positioned Nationally and in Iowa

Dec.14, 2015

Polls Show Donald Trump Well-Positioned Nationally and in Iowa

Donald J. Trump’s support among Republicans has cracked the 40 percent threshold, according to a national poll released on Monday that shows the billionaire real estate mogul pulling away from his rivals after his proposal to bar Muslim immigrants from entering the United States.

The Monmouth University survey showed Mr. Trump’s backing at 41 percent, up from 28 percent in a poll conducted by the same group in October. Senator Ted Cruz (14 percent) of Texas, Senator Marco Rubio (10 percent) of Florida and Ben Carson (9 percent) are competing for second place. The poll came as another survey of Iowa Republicans showed Mr. Trump deadlocked with Mr. Cruz.

Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said that Mr. Trump’s gains nationally underscore his ability to please his supporters while turning off the Republican establishment.

“It has become abundantly clear that Trump is giving his supporters exactly what they want, even if what he says causes the G.O.P. leadership and many Republican voters to cringe,” Mr. Murray said.

Mr. Trump has seen an upward bounce in his national poll numbers after his proposal this month about foreign Muslims. Polls show Republicans are split on the idea, while the country over all is largely against it.

Although Mr. Trump is showing no signs of fading nationally, he is under increasing pressure from Mr. Cruz in Iowa, where many evangelical voters have shifted their support to the senator from Texas instead of Mr. Carson.

The Monmouth poll found that two-thirds of Republican voters think Mr. Trump has the right temperament to be president. He is showing that his support is broad-based within the party, and he is drawing particularly well with voters who associate themselves with the Tea Party and those with lower education levels.

The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus five percentage points.

A separate poll in Iowa that was released Monday was the third survey in the state to confirm Mr. Cruz’s momentum there. But the poll painted a less dire picture for Mr. Trump than the earlier surveys among likely Republican caucusgoers.

Mr. Trump led among likely Iowa caucusgoers with 28 percent, statistically tied with Mr. Cruz at 27 in the poll from Quinnipiac University. The gap in Iowa is similar to a two-percentage point lead Mr. Trump held over Mr. Cruz in the same pollster’s survey three weeks ago.

It followed two weekend polls showing a big surge for Mr. Cruz: one by The Des Moines Register giving the Texas senator a 10-point lead, and another by Fox News showing Mr. Cruz ahead, 28-26 percent.

Mr. Cruz’s strength with conservatives was confirmed in the Quinnipiac Iowa poll. He led Mr. Trump among groups of voters who described themselves as evangelicals, Tea Party supporters and very conservative.

Mr. Trump led with somewhat and moderately conservative voters, and those without a college degree.

With the terrorist attacks in Paris and San Bernardino, Calif., reshaping the Republican race, voters were split about which of two front-runners was best prepared: Likely Republican caucusgoers said Mr. Trump would best handle terrorism and Mr. Cruz was best on foreign policy. The interviews were conducted Dec. 4-13; Mr. Trump’s statement on barring Muslims was issued on Dec. 7.

The two men were far ahead of their nearest challengers, with Mr. Rubio getting 14 percent and Mr. Carson at 10 percent.

The poll showed Mr. Trump was viewed less favorably than all three of the other top four contenders.

“One good sign for Senator Cruz in his battle with Trump is that voters view him much more favorably than Trump, meaning that the Texas lawmaker may have a higher potential upside,’’ Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac poll, said in a statement.

With the Iowa caucuses 49 days away, the horse race has the potential fur further shake-ups before voting on Feb. 1. In past cycles, many voters made up their minds the last several days, according to entrance polls. That is good news for candidates now in single digits: former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida at 5 percent, Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky at 4 percent, and Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey and Carly Fiorina at 3 percent.

Donald Trump Releases Medical Report Calling His Health ‘Extraordinary’

Donald J. Trump released a note from his personal physician attesting that his health was “extraordinary.”

The note, signed by Dr. Harold Bornstein, of Lenox Hill Hospital, was four paragraphs long and contained as few specifics as many of Mr. Trump’s policy proposals. But the note made a sweeping declaration in a tone oddly similar to how Mr. Trump talks about himself.

“If elected, Mr. Trump, I can state unequivocally, will be the healthiest individual ever elected to the presidency,” Dr. Bornstein wrote in the final paragraph.

The note came 11 days after Mr. Trump vowed on Twitter to release a “full medical report” about his physical health and fitness to serve as president, which he said would “show perfection.” His pledge came after a Politico report pointed out his penchant for fatty foods, his lack of routine workouts, and, until now, his refusal to release a medical report.

I am proud to share this health report, written by the highly respected Dr. Jacob Bornstein of Lenox Hill Hospital. https://t.co/5RZa5of0TR

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 14, 2015

The note begins as an open letter, “To Whom My Concern,” apparently meaning, “To whom it may concern.” The email from Mr. Trump that contained the note said it was from his doctor, Jacob, which he also posted on Twitter. According to an obituary, Jacob Bornstein died in 2010; the note lists Jacob Bornstein as Mr. Trump’s previous physician.

The note said that Mr. Trump had a “recent complete medical examination that showed only positive results.” It did not give specifics about that exam.

Over the past 39 years, the note said, Mr. Trump has had “no significant medical problems.” His blood pressure, 110/65, was “astonishingly excellent,” the note added. He has lost “at least fifteen pounds” in the last 12 months, although his exact weight was not listed. He also takes a low-dose aspirin daily and a statin to treat high cholesterol, but the note did not contain his cholesterol levels. The note said Mr. Trump had no history of cancer or joint surgery, and did not use tobacco or alcohol products. It said he has a PSA level of 0.15, which is unusually low.

“His physical strength and stamina are extraordinary,” the note added.

Strength and stamina are the same words Mr. Trump has used to tar Hillary Clinton, who is leading in polls for the Democratic presidential nomination. Mrs. Clinton months ago released a lengthy doctor’s note that included information about her concussion in December 2012 and her recovery.

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/firs...-in-iowa/?_r=0

A nice well-balanced article by the New York Times. Maybe someone in that company can read the writing on the walls.