Thread: Obama could pull Russia trip amid Ukraine tumult

H2 Note: Having completely gutted, demoralized, and emasculated the entire United States Armed Force, Barack Obama is in no way shape or form prepared to, or even comprehend what a confrontation with Russia is capable of unleashing. Our military readiness is LESS THAN WHAT IT WAS before the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor, in relative terms.

He has openly humiliated, castigated, and fired more General-Grade officers than all other former presidents COMBINED.

He is not only the worst Commander-In-Chief in the history of the United States, but is a laughing stock in military circles around the world, including Russia.

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By JULIE PACE and MATTHEW LEE
AP Diplomatic Writer

Obama could pull Russia trip amid Ukraine tumult

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Obama administration is evaluating whether President Barack Obama will go forward with plans to attend an international summit in Russia this summer amid reports of Russian intervention in Ukraine.

A senior administration official says it's hard to see how Obama and European leaders would attend the G-8 summit in Sochi, which is scheduled for June. The official says the administration is also evaluating whether to proceed with discussions with Russia on deepening trade and commerce ties.

The official outlined the potential consequences of Russian intervention shortly after Obama declared there would be "costs" to such activity. Obama did not outline those costs during his Friday afternoon statement at the White House.

The official was not authorized to discuss the situation by name and spoke only on condition of anonymity.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP's earlier story is below.

Delivering a blunt warning to Moscow, President Barack Obama expressed deep concern Friday over reported military activity inside Ukraine by Russia and warned "there will be costs" for any intervention.

He did not say what those costs might be.

Obama called on Russia to respect the independence and territory of Ukraine and not try to take advantage of its neighbor, which is undergoing political upheaval.

"Any violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity would be deeply destabilizing," Obama said in a statement delivered from the White House. Such action by Russia would not serve the interests of the Ukrainian people, Russia or Europe, Obama said, and would represent a "profound interference" in matters he said must be decided by the Ukrainian people.

"Just days after the world came to Russia for the Olympic Games, that would invite the condemnation of nations around the world," Obama said. "The United States will stand with the international community in affirming that there will be costs for any military intervention in Ukraine."

As Obama prepared to speak, a spokesman for the Ukrainian border service said eight Russian transport planes had landed with unknown cargo in Crimea, a pro-Russian region of southern Ukraine. Serhiy Astakhov told The Associated Press that the Il-76 planes arrived unexpectedly Friday and were given permission to land, one after the other, at Gvardeiskoye air base, north of the regional capital, Simferopol.

Astakhov said the people in the planes refused to identify themselves and waved off customs officials.

Obama noted that Russia has a historic relationship with Ukraine, a former Soviet republic, including cultural and economic ties and a Russian military facility in Crimea.

In recent conversations between U.S. and Russian officials, including a lengthy telephone conversation between Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin just last week, Obama said the U.S. has made clear to the Russians that they can be part of an international community's effort to support the stability and success of Ukraine.

But, he said Friday, "we are now deeply concerned by reports of military movements taken by the Russian Federation inside of Ukraine."

Earlier Friday, as pro-Russia gunmen patrolled Crimean streets in armored vehicles and took over airports there, Secretary of State John Kerry warned Moscow against military moves in Crimea that could further inflame tensions.

Kerry and White House spokesman Jay Carney both said any Russian military intervention would be a grave mistake and that the United States was watching closely. They did not spell out any consequences for an intervention.

Kerry said he called Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov for the second time in two days to press the Kremlin to keep its promise to respect Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Lavrov repeated Russian President Vladimir Putin's pledge to do just that while also pointing out that Russia has broad interests in Ukraine, Kerry said.

The secretary of state said the U.S. was watching to see if Russian activity in Crimea "might be crossing a line in any way." He added that the administration would be "very careful" in making judgments about that. Carney echoed Kerry's comments at the White House.

Kerry reiterated the U.S. view that Russian military intervention in Ukraine following the ouster of the country's Russia-backed leader would run counter to Russia's self-professed opposition to such operations in other countries, such as Libya and Syria.

And Kerry noted that during his call with Lavrov, fugitive Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych was holding a news conference in southern Russia in which he said he was not asking Moscow for military assistance and called military action "unacceptable." In his appearance before reporters, however, Yanukovych, who still regards himself the president, also vowed to "keep fighting for the future of Ukraine" and blamed the U.S. and the West for encouraging the rebellion that forced him to flee last weekend.

Any Russian military incursion in Crimea would dramatically raise the stakes in Ukraine, which is at the center of what many see as a tug of war between East and West.

One of the catalysts for massive demonstrations that led to Yanukovych's ouster was his rejection of a partnership agreement with the European Union in favor of historical ties with Moscow. That EU agreement would have paved the way for Ukraine's greater integration with the West, including potential affiliation with NATO, something to which Russia strongly objects for former Warsaw Pact members.

Underscoring U.S. concerns are memories of the conflict in Georgia, where Russian troops remain in two disputed enclaves in violation of a 2008 cease-fire.

Amid the heightened tensions over Ukraine, the U.S. this week twice renewed its objections to the Russian military presence in Georgia's breakaway Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions.

Kerry and other senior U.S. officials have tried without success to dispel widespread sentiment in Russia that the United States and Europe are trying to pry Ukraine out from under Russian influence. They have insisted repeatedly that Ukraine is not a "zero-sum game" in which one side - Russia or the West - wins and the other loses.

Their argument, though, seems to be falling on deaf ears in Moscow, where Russian officials have been accusing the U.S. and its allies of meddling, fomenting anti-Russia sentiment and actively encouraging Kiev's Western aspirations at the expense of its historical connections.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories...02-28-17-18-37

On Ukraine, Putin holds all the cards and dictates the timetable

Russian President Vladimir Putin has committed himself to nothing. He continues to hold all the cards.

If Russia invades Ukraine, the timing may be determined by the situation on the ground in Moscow more than the streets of Kiev and Simferopol.

By Anshel Pfeffer | Feb. 27, 2014 | 9:03 PM

When will we know the Russians have invaded Ukraine? We won’t. Unlike the summer of 2008 when paratroop brigades crossed the border into Georgia’s sovereign territory under the pretext of aiding the Ossetian minority, marines of the Russian Black Sea Fleet are already stationed on Ukrainian soil.

The agreement between the two countries not only allows warships to be based at the port of Sevastopol, but also for Russian military vehicles to traverse the Crimean peninsula.

Acting President Oleksandr Turchynov did call upon the Kremlin not to allow its forces to leave the naval base, but an armored convoy had already travelled the 80 kilometers between Sevastopol and the regional capital Simferopol, stopping outside the town at a traffic police checkpoint. As it is, the Russians do not recognize Turchynov and his interim government. With perfect timing, Russian television broadcast Thursday morning the first statement by deposed president Viktor Yanukovych since he fled Kiev last weekend.

The mystery of his whereabouts is over: He succeeded somehow in crossing over to Russia, which has given him sanctuary and from there he is questioning the legitimacy of those who currently – barely – hold power.

While the armored cars waited outside Simferopol, inside the town 120 armed men, their faces covered and no identifying signs on their dark uniforms, had since the early hours occupied the regional parliament building, the Russian flag flying on its roof. They haven’t released a statement or identified themselves. Some claim they are Russian marines, but that has not been confirmed in any way.

Meanwhile, everything remains deniable. Russian President Vladimir Putin has committed himself to nothing. He continues to hold all the cards.

The armed men could leave, clinging to their anonymity, or identify themselves as Ukrainian citizens concerned for their country’s “democracy.”

Turchynov may have given an order to his army to reestablish control of governmental buildings in Simferopol, but they are surrounded by thousands of civilians, ethnic Russians flying their homeland’s flags, and the army won’t try and force its way through. The new government which just came to power in the wake of a bloodbath will not risk a second one; especially not as it would provide Putin with the perfect excuse to intervene.

Putin can decide the timetable and he has no reason to hurry. There are enough Russian troops in Crimea and reinforcements on high alert on the borders. He can choose his moment, and allow the Russian majority in Crimea to do much of the work for him in a snap referendum on returning their region to Mother Russia.

The timing may be determined by the situation on the ground in Moscow more than the streets of Kiev and Simferopol. Russia’s opposition is weak and divided, still reeling from the violent suppression of protests outside a Moscow courthouse this week, where no less than 450 protestors, including rising leader Alexei Navalny, were arrested. But the events of recent weeks in Kiev, as much as those three years ago in Cairo and Tunis, proved that even without an established opposition and recognized leader, hundreds of thousands are prepared to stream into the squares once they scent an opportunity to rid themselves of an autocratic leader.

Such a dynamic doesn’t seem yet to exist in Russia, despite the example across the border, but will Putin risk it? The situation in Ukraine has created the perfect storm for him. He can fulfill the Russian desire to reclaim the peninsula – which historically was always part of Russia – and perhaps other parts of eastern Ukraine. It should be an easy war of annexation. Beyond diplomatic protests, the Western powers lead by the United States, which couldn’t even launch one missile attack on Syria following the use of chemical weapons against civilians, would never go to war with Russia on behalf of a torn country, a significant part of which supports becoming part of Russia anyway. The Ukrainian army, which held back at the last moment from intervening in the internal political crisis, will probably not put up much of a fight. Many of its soldiers and officers treat the Russians as their closest comrades.

But advancing in Ukraine is not without risk for Putin. The West’s only weapons are sanctions, and the Russian economy after the massive expenditure of over $50 billion on the Sochi Olympics is increasingly fragile. Putin has other interests also, such as safeguarding his ally in Damascus who is facing intensifying attacks by rebels being trained in Jordan and equipped with Saudi-financed advanced weaponry.

Russia has increased its support of the Assad government recently; can he win on both fronts simultaneously? Is Putin willing to sacrifice his Syrian base to keep his hold on Ukraine? He doesn’t have to decide right now. The elections for a new Ukrainian government are scheduled to take place in three months, and he can continue to dictate the agenda and timetable. His troops are already in place.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/world/.premium-1.576927