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    Senior Member AirborneSapper7's Avatar
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    REDSTATE: Introducing The Senate Breakers Report - The Race To 50




    RS

    FRONT PAGE CONTRIBUTOR

    Introducing The Senate Breakers Report

    The Race To 50


    By: Dan McLaughlin (Diary) | September 26th, 2014 at 12:10 PM | 22



    Today I’m introducing a quick-and-dirty metric for examining the state of play in the Senate races: the Senate Breakers Report.

    As I explained eleven days ago, the history of the last six Senate election cycles shows that the final results can and do differ from where the polls stand in mid-September, and the strong tendency has been for the final results to move in the direction of the “wave” party, i.e., the same party that is doing well in the generic House ballot polls and the presidential approval rating polls. Sean Trende’s latest analysis builds on that (“candidates who have led by five points (rounded) or less have won only 15 of the 33 races in which they have been involved”) and develops the theory that he has been examining for much of the year: that the Democrats’ performance in Senate races would ultimately converge around President Obama’s approval rating in those states, which of course is dismal in all but the bluest states. At this writing, Obama is 12 points underwater nationally (41.4 to 53.5) and Republicans – driven in part by more pollsters switching from registered to likely voter screens – have taken off in the generic ballot, pulling ahead to a 4-point lead (46.5 to 42.5).



    Trende’s specific thesis has been that the reason the results diverge from the polls in the final four to six weeks in an election of this nature – i.e., a midterm where the President is unpopular – is that the Democrats have consolidated the voters who approve of President Obama, leaving them with a pool of anywhere from 10-20% of the electorate that is undecided in the Senate race but overwhelmingly consists of voters who disapprove of the president and are therefore likely (to the extent they vote at all) to vote for the opposition party. We don’t know if this will happen, but it’s the recent-historic trend. And if you drill into the polling, you can see some signs of it – consider PPP’s polling in Alaska in August and September:



    Mark Begich’s positive job approval numbers sank between those two polls – to converge in the direction of Obama’s deep unpopularity in Alaska. Just to take PPP as an example, its latest polls had Obama’s approval rating at 45-50 in Virginia, 31-62 in Arkansas, 40-56 in Alaska, 33-58 in Kansas, and 42-53 in North Carolina, and all those races besides Kansas – even Virginia, where Mark Warner still has a solid lead – trending away from the Democrats.
    Without further ado, then, here is where the RCP averages currently stand for each of the contested Senate races, in a chart I call the “Senate Breakers Report” because it illustrates how many of the remaining undecided voters need to break Republican to win those races. The R2% column shows the Republican’s current percentage of the two-party vote (the only metric that matters); IU% is the percentage of the polled electorate that is either undecided or currently backing a third party candidate (despite Robert Sarvis’ presence in the Virginia race, there is really only a major third party factor in South Dakota, where former Republican Senator Larry Pressler gets double-digit support, but that race is not close); and “R to 50″ shows what percent of the undecided/independent vote the Republican needs to get to 50.001% of the vote and win.



    Of course, this is an unduly reductionist approach – some voters who are now committed may change their minds, and we don’t know yet how accurately the polls are modeling the actual electorate. All of these things go into my original point that things can change from mid-September polls to final election results. But if you’re trying to figure out how much give is in the polls, this is a good quick look. Only two races, New Hampshire and Minnesota, show less than 10% of the voters undecided, which means that there’s still a lot of work to be done by both sides to nail down a win. But despite the relative tightness of those races, pretty much every race above Arkansas on the chart requires the GOP candidate to capture less than 40% of the remaining undecided voters, not that challenging a haul when no more than a quarter to a third of those undecideds, in many states, are happy with the president. The further down the chart you go, the harder the sledding gets – the polls in Kansas are not really settled yet, but if you take them at face value, Pat Roberts simply has to shake some of Greg Orman’s current supporters away to win, whereas neither Terri Lynn Land nor Thom Tillis has to do that. That said, we can see the trend towards Republicans even in places like Virginia and Oregon that look pretty well locked up for the Democrats.
    It’s not over, and a lot of these races will be close to the end. But the closing arguments will have to focus on voters who disapprove of President Obama, and I’d rather have the Republican side of that argument than the Democrats’ side.

    Tags: Polls, Senate Breakers

    http://www.redstate.com/2014/09/26/i...eakers-report/
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    Senior Member AirborneSapper7's Avatar
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    RS

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    Not one cent more. The @NRSC is about to reap what it has sown

    By: streiff (Diary) | September 26th, 2014 at 10:25 AM | 58



    Politico is reporting that former candidate for the US Senate from Kansas, Dr. Milton Wolf, is in talks with independent candidate Greg Orman:
    Milton Wolf, the tea party candidate who battled Sen. Pat Roberts in a bitter Republican primary fight, is considering some political payback: Endorsing Kansas independent Greg Orman, sources said Thursday night.
    But there’s a big catch: To win Wolf’s endorsement, Orman must first agree to caucus with the Senate GOP if he were to defeat Roberts in the general election.
    Good for him, and if Orman will pledge to caucus with Republicans he could do the GOP a world of good by endorsing Orman rather than out-of-touch porker Pat Roberts. In fact, for Wolf to endorse Roberts after the grotesque attacks Roberts conducted on Wolf would lead one to question Wolf’s sanity.
    This year the petty and vindictive NRSC, acting at the behest of the petty and vindictive Mitch McConnell undertook one of the most disgusting interventions in party primaries ever undertaken by any party apparatus. They launched a series of blatantly dishonest and scurrilous ads that painted any challenger to a GOP incumbent at either racist or corrupt or both. In the process of pulling a crop of septuagenarian corruptocrats over the finish line they burned through bales of contributor cash and any goodwill the GOP base may have had for McConnell, the NRSC, or anyone they support.
    Rather than looking for principled candidates, the NRSC has supported men so senile that they can’t find meetings they are scheduled to attend and men who are so out of touch with their home state that they don’t even have a residence there.
    Now the NRSC is asking the people they called racists and idiots to give them money. Take this email, for instance:
    After months of predicting GOP victory, the Washington Post’s statistical model now shows a 51 percent chance that the Democrats hang on.

    Why?

    The answer is simple – the Democrats are spending over $40 million more than the Republicans in battleground races. For weeks, our candidates have been holding on, despite a relentless barrage of negative ads – but we need your help now or it’s over.

    I know that times are tough, that’s why we’re fighting so hard to bring new leadership that will turn things around. But, if we don’t rally together now – as a team – then we will lose as individuals.

    Can we count on you?
    Ummm, no. You can’t count on me because I can’t count on you. As Erick so delicately put it a few days ago, the NRSC can GDIAF.
    What is so ironic is that now the NRSC is bitching about the SCF not getting involved in contested races in a big enough way to please the NRSC:
    The National Republican Senatorial Committee has spent or reserved $3.4 million in Iowa airtime. But there is particular frustration across the GOP establishment with the outside group Senate Conservatives Fund, which backed Ernst in the GOP primary but has yet to reserve any airtime to help out in the fall. (via Politico)
    The NRSC, if you recall, is the same organization that not only trashed conservative voters and conservative candidates and sought to punish firms that did business with the SCF.
    Even more striking, a senior official at the committee called individual Republican Senate campaigns and other party organizations this week and urged them not to hire the firm, Jamestown Associates, in an effort to punish them for working for the Senate Conservatives Fund, a group founded by Jim DeMint, then a South Carolina senator, that is trying to unseat Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader, and some other incumbents up for reelection next year whom it finds insufficiently conservative.
    “We’re not going to do business with people who profit off of attacking Republicans,” said Brad Dayspring, a spokesman for the committee. “Purity for profit is a disease that threatens the Republican Party.”
    The committee has conveyed the same message, privately, to 2014 Senate candidates such as Representatives Steve Daines of Montana and Tom Cotton of Arkansas, the Republican National Committee, the National Republican Congressional Committee (the senatorial committee’s House counterpart), the Republican Governors Association and Mike DuHaime, the chief strategist for Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, for whom Jamestown also does work.
    The NRSC and the guys calling the shots there are oozing chancres on the butt of American politics. They operate without ethics and without adherence to any principle larger than self-aggrandizement. If you want to contribute to a candidate, even a corrupt, adulterous, demented Thad Cochran, please do. But whatever you do, do not sent a single red cent to the NRSC.

    http://www.redstate.com/2014/09/26/o...rsc-reap-sown/
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