Six reasons so many Republicans are running for president
Six reasons so many Republicans are running for president
When all the announcements are in, the Republican presidential field could have close to 20 candidates – and that’s not counting the fringe. We’re talking governors and former governors, senators and former senators, plus a few from outside the political world. It’s shaping up to be the largest GOP field in modern history. What’s going on? Here’s our list of reasons:
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When all the announcements are in, the Republican presidential field could have close to 20 candidates – and that’s not counting the fringe. We’re talking governors and former governors, senators and former senators, plus a few from outside the political world. It’s shaping up to be the largest GOP field in modern history. What’s going on? Here’s our list of reasons:
1. No clear front-runner
The Republicans have a habit of nominating the “next in line” – that is, someone who ran before but didn’t quite get the nomination.
Think Mitt Romney (ran in 2008, nominated in 2012), John McCain (ran in 2000, nominated in 2008), and Ronald Reagan (ran in 1976, won the nomination and the presidency in 1980).
But this year, there’s no next-in-line candidate poised to clear the field. Even former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, the son and brother of former presidents, hasn’t deterred a flood of competitors.
2. No incumbent on the ballot
President Obama will finish his second term in January 2017, and is ineligible to run again. Open-seat presidential races generally attract a large field, when there’s no obvious successor lining up to run. But that factor alone doesn’t explain the particularly large GOP field.
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Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush speaks at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference in Oklahoma Cit …
3. It’s the Republicans’ ‘turn’
The modern American presidency tends to swing back and forth between the two major parties, two terms at a time. Since Bill Clinton defeated President George H.W. Bush in 1992, that’s been the case.
It’s always worth it to win a major-party nomination, even if one is running against an incumbent or trying to succeed a two-termer from your own party. But when a two-term president is getting ready to retire, the nomination of the opposing party is especially valuable.
Whoever gets the GOP nod in 2016 has an excellent chance of becoming president.
4. Hopes of catching fire
The large Republican field has sorted out into different categories. There’s the top tier – Mr. Bush, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, and Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin – who all bring key qualities and qualifications to the table. They also have the ability to raise lots of money and appeal to more than one segment of the GOP electorate.
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Republican presidential candidate Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., speaks at the Georgia Republican Convent …
Others, such as Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, are more niche candidates, appealing to tea partyers (Senator Cruz) and social conservatives (both). But there’s always a chance a lower-tier candidate can catch fire and make a play for the top tier. Hope springs eternal.
5. Some candidates aren’t really running for president
Some, or even many, must know deep down they’re a super long-shot for the nomination. So what they’re really doing is auditioning for running mate or a show on Fox News or both. Others are boosting their public profile – and their speaking fees and book advances. Still others are in it just for the ego boost. Or maybe they’re retired and bored and their spouse just wants them out of the house.
But even taken together, all of the above reasons don’t fully explain why the 2016 GOP field is so huge. The real reason is next.
6. Citizens United
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Republican presidential candidate and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee waves to the crowd prior to …
The Supreme Court’s 2010 ruling in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission rocked the world of campaign finance.
Suddenly, mega-donors could pump unlimited, undisclosed money into outside groups that advocate for a preferred candidate and/or against another.
In the 2012 cycle, big-money super political action committees, or super PACs, kept former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich in the game far longer than they would otherwise have been able. This time, some candidates have already lined up their big money patrons, and others are still jockeying for such donors. But the potential of big-money support is enough for many candidates to hold out hope that they can catch on and watch the money roll in.
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