Thread: GOP convention could be dance of the delegates

GOP convention could be dance of the delegates

David A. Crockett, For the Express-News
Published 12:00 am, Saturday, April 16, 2016

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Photo: TERESA ZABALA /New York Times

In 1976, neither Gerald Ford nor Ronald Reagan finished the primary season with the necessary majority of delegates. But Ford took the interval between the primaries and the convention to lock down enough of the unbound delegates to secure the necessary majority by the time the convention started. Here, Ronald and Nancy Reagan look on to Ford’s acceptance speech that year. less

It’s a wonderful time to be a delegate to the Republican National Convention. For more than a century, convention delegates were the final arbiters of who the parties picked to be their nominees in the general election. The process often took many ballots to decide, and delegates would engage in bargaining with other party brokers before settling on a winner.

Back in those days, party leaders controlled state delegations, and had the power to deliver a bloc of delegates to a candidate for the right price.

But the last Republican convention to go more than one ballot was 1948, when Thomas Dewey won the nomination. For Democrats, it was 1952, when Adlai Stevenson got the nod.

For the past 40 years, primaries have displaced conventions as the principal decision-making tool in presidential nominations. With rare exception, the process has winnowed the candidate field very quickly, and we know who the presumptive nominees are months before the convention.

This year is not likely to be any different in the Democratic Party. Hillary Clinton’s advantage with the “superdelegates” will put her over the top — barring some catastrophic collapse — well before the Democratic National Convention convenes in July.
Not so in the multi-candidate GOP race. In order to become the Republican Party nominee, a candidate must win the support of 1,237 convention delegates.

And while Trump is much closer to victory than either of his competitors, his path to 1,237 delegates is looking increasingly precarious.

That brings us back to old-fashioned territory. If Republicans get to the close of business June 7 with no one at 1,237, they will enter a 40-day period in which the candidates will try to pick off unpledged delegates to boost their numbers.

In 1976, neither Gerald Ford nor Ronald Reagan finished the primary season with the necessary majority of delegates. But Ford took the interval between the primaries and the convention to lock down enough of the unbound delegates to secure the necessary majority by the time the convention started.

That will be Trump’s first task. If he’s shy by only a dozen delegates, it should be a fairly easy assignment.

But if he’s short by a hundred or so, all bets are off.

Most Republican delegates from Texas are pledged to Trump or Sen. Ted Cruz. There are, however, three Texas delegates pledged to Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who is no longer an active candidate. If he were to release his three Texas delegates, those individuals become free agents, and targets of the Trump and Cruz campaigns.

There may be as many as 300 unbound delegates at play during this 40-day interim — more than enough for Trump to secure 1,237 if he is the great deal-maker he claims to be.

If, however, Trump does not succeed, Republicans will move to the national convention on July 18. On the first ballot all the delegates will have to vote as they are pledged. Texas delegates will split their votes 104 for Cruz, 48 for Trump, and three for Rubio. With no candidate reaching 1237, they will move on to ballot 2.

State rules vary, but in most cases pledged delegates become free agents on the second ballot.

Texas Republicans, however, keep their delegates pledged on the second ballot unless the candidate fails to break 20 percent of the vote or is released by the candidate.

That means the three Rubio delegates — for he will not break 20 percent — will become free agents, while the Trump and Cruz delegates will not.

Only on ballot 3 will all Texas delegates become unbound, free to vote as they please.

That is why the delegate selection process is so important. This process began at the precinct caucuses the night of the March 1 Texas primary. It will conclude at the state convention in Dallas (May 12-14), where the good Republicans of Texas will choose the physical human beings who will represent the state in Cleveland.

It is quite possible that someone in Dallas who really likes Ted Cruz will be selected as a Trump delegate.

That individual will be forced to do his or her duty on the first two ballots, but if the convention gets to ballot 3, they can vote their heart and turn to Cruz.

Cruz understands this dynamic, and has a strong national organization that is thinking strategically about selecting friendly delegates who will be willing to switch to his side if the balloting goes long.

That is why Trump’s nomination requires him to reach 1,237 before July 18. If Trump fails to achieve that number on ballot 1, the anti-Trump forces will have the freedom to work against him and deny him the nomination.

None of this means Cruz is a shoo-in for the nomination. If he cannot poach enough delegates from Trump or elsewhere on ballots 2 or 3, and the delegates for John Kasich and Rubio stand firm, the convention may turn its attention to questions of electability — who is most likely to beat presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in November.

But this move requires a rule change by the party.

Currently, a name can be placed in nomination only if he or she has won a majority of delegates from at least eight states. But the party may change that rule before the convention, perhaps to let anyone who has won delegates to be placed in nomination. And that would open the door for Rubio, Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, and even Rand Paul, Carly Fiorina, and Mike Huckabee, who each have one delegate.

I suspect most Texas delegates will remain firmly committed to Cruz or Trump, but again, it really depends on who these people are. Once they become unbound from their pledges, delegates are free to take into consideration all sorts of arguments and concerns.

It is unlikely that they will be able to vote for former candidates who were not in the race long enough to acquire delegates, which would rule out people like Scott Walker and Rick Perry. And it seems unlikely that the rules will be changed to allow someone to be nominated who was never a candidate, like Speaker of the House Paul Ryan.

But the real decision now rests with the selection of delegates at the state convention in Dallas and the choices of the Rules Committee before the national convention in Cleveland. Those decisions will determine the range of freedom enjoyed by the delegates, including the possibility that they will be the real decision makers.

http://www.mysanantonio.com/opinion/...es-7251596.php

There may be as many as 300 unbound delegates at play during this 40-day interim — more than enough for Trump to secure 1,237 if he is the great deal-maker he claims to be.

So these delegates for for sale? "Hi, I"m a delegate, lets make a deal. How much you gonna pay me to vote for you" .... really? This is how we run the Republican primary and nomination process??!!

Geez, no wonder Trump is throwing a fit. He should!! It's quite clear I never understood how this process worked. No wonder our country is up crap creek without a paddle.

We need Us some Trump to straighten this all out.

Could Republican Convention delegates be bought? Legally, maybe

There are federal and state laws prohibiting bribery of elected officials -- and restrictions on campaigns themselves -- but there isn't much on the books governing what private citizens serving as delegates at their parties' conventions can take in exchange for their votes on a nominating ballot . . .