Thread: A thought on Arizona 8th District and illegal immigration!

A quick thought on Arizona 8th District and illegal immigration
11/03 01:43 PM
The Corner has a good collection of links to news stories covering the House race in the Arizona 8th District — Democrat Gabrielle Giffords vs. Republican Randy Graf. It's Kolbe's old seat, one of the races every observer is chalking up as an automatic Democratic pickup.

I've indicated that Republican Randy Graf is my Super Mega-Shocker Special What-The-Hell-Are-You-Smoking-Jim Upset Pick for 2006; I just figure the illegal immigration issue is huge, stirs passions, motivates voters, and that a lot of people may support a Minuteman, a hardline view, but don't want to tell it to a pollster or others for fear of being called racist, nativist, etc.

And as a candidate the state GOP wasn't eager to see to win the primary, Graf was seen as unelectable and expected to get blown out by 20-30 points. So the fact that he's not getting blown out, and is in fact down 12, 10, 8 suggested to me that maybe there's something going on out there.

On the other hand, if Graf does get blown out as expected, staunch opponents of illegal immigration are going to have a challenge persuading the GOP that their position is an electoral winner. It's easy to see the mentality taking root, "If opposing immigration couldn't help stave off a blowout in Tucson, Arizona, it's not going to help much anywhere else...

http://tks.nationalreview.com/post/?q=O ... ExM2NlYmE=

I do think this is possible too. Randy Graf has run a very good campaign. We were figuring today that he probably didn't get RNC money because Kolbe was still pulling the strings. A debate last week named Graf as the winner and a couple of days ago Denny Hastert came to town for Graf. It is a fact that there are more registered Republicans than Dems in that district as well. It is still possible that Graf can win!

Originally Posted by mapwife

I do think this is possible too. Randy Graf has run a very good campaign. We were figuring today that he probably didn't get RNC money because Kolbe was still pulling the strings. A debate last week named Graf as the winner and a couple of days ago Denny Hastert came to town for Graf. It is a fact that there are more registered Republicans than Dems in that district as well. It is still possible that Graf can win!

MAPWIFE
have any polls on him? I tried to find something today/tonight but Zip.

.

NRO's The Corner has district-wide polls on that race-and most of the other competitive contests across the country-which it runs every other day or so.

I'm not sure how accurate they are though.

One thing that's going to hurt Graf-without a doubt-is the fact that the lOBL lamer hand-picked by John McInsane is heading up the GOP ticket-he's going to get crushed by that vermin Napalitano-instead of Goldwater.

Nice going Repub leadership.

ARIZONA 8 - In a Republican-held district bordering Mexico, Republican anti-immigration activist Randy Graf accused Democratic former state Sen. Gabrielle Giffords of being involved in a questionable land-lease deal with the city of Tucson. Shunned by national Republicans, Graf slipped farther behind Giffords in a Reuters/Zogby poll last week, 53 percent to 41 percent.
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Democrat Gabrielle Giffords has a commanding 15 percentage-point lead over Republican Randy Graf in the race to replace retiring Congressman Jim Kolbe, according to the latest Tucson Weekly/Wick Communication Poll.
The survey of 400 Congressional District 8 voters, which was conducted by local pollster Margaret Kenski, showed that half favor Giffords, while 35 percent say they will vote for Graf, and 11 percent remain undecided.

Just 2 percent of voters said they were supporting Libertarian David Nolan, while 1.5 percent said they liked independent Jay Quick.

The poll, taken between Oct. 25 and 28, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percent.

The latest numbers don't show a major shift from a Weekly poll taken in September, which showed that 52 percent supported Giffords, and 34 percent supported Graf.

But Kenski notes that 26 percent of Giffords supporters say they support her based on her positions on the issues, compared to just 15 percent in September, which Kenski credits to Giffords' television advertising.

"Whatever you think of what she does in those ads, she's become identified with certain issues more than she was," says Kenski, who notes that Graf has had far less money to advertise.

When it comes to the top issues facing the candidates, voters continue to have more confidence in Giffords than in Graf. Forty percent of voters say they trust her centrist approach to resolving border security, while 36 percent prefer Graf's hard-line stance.

When it comes to handling the Iraq war, 40 percent say they have more trust in Giffords, while just 29 percent say they have more trust in Graf.

The Weekly poll is the latest in a series of publicly released surveys that have shown Graf unable to break the 40 percent barrier. His highest showing was 38 percent, in a poll released last week by Zimmerman and Associates, which showed him trailing Giffords by 10 percentage points.

A staunch conservative, Graf is struggling to maintain GOP support in the moderate 8th District, which stretches from the Catalina foothills to the U.S.-Mexico border. Just 65 percent of Republicans say they'll vote for Graf; 20 percent say they'll support Giffords, and 13 percent remain undecided.

Some of the GOP crossover appears to be a reaction to Graf himself. As one Republican told pollsters, "Graf is too conservative for me." But in other cases, it appears related to dissatisfaction with the Republican Party in general, with one GOP Giffords supporter saying he'd be "darned" if he'll vote Republican this year.

On the other side of the aisle, 86 percent of Democrats say they'll vote for Giffords; 6 percent say they'll cross over to support Graf, and 8 percent are undecided.

One Democrat who is supporting Graf told pollsters that he liked the Republican's opposition to abortion and gay marriage, while another said he liked Graf's stance on the border.

Independent/other voters are supporting Giffords by a better than 2-to-1 margin, with 48 percent supporting Giffords, and 22 percent supporting Graf. Nine percent support Nolan, and 7 percent support Quick. Thirteen percent of independent voters are undecided.

Graf has yet to overcome his gender gap. Nearly 54 percent of female voters support Giffords, while 32 percent support Graf. Giffords also leads among male voters, with 46 percent saying they'll vote for her and 38 percent saying they'll vote for Graf.

Giffords continues to dominate in Pima and Pinal counties, where 51 percent of the voters say they'll support her, compared to 35 percent for Graf.

Graf has also lost his lead in Cochise and Santa Cruz counties. In September, he had the support of 43 percent of voters, but the new survey shows he has slipped to 39 percent. Giffords, who had the support of 42 percent in September, has climbed to 46 percent.

Of the voters who are supporting Graf, 13 percent said they were voting for him because they always vote Republican; 7 percent said they like his stand on the border, and 6 percent said they liked his stand on issues overall.

The poll surveyed 400 voters who cast ballots in the 2002 and 2004 general elections, including 333 voters from Pima and Pinal counties and 67 voters from Cochise and Santa Cruz counties. The sample included 185 Republicans, 161 Democrats and 54 independent/other voters; 204 were women, and 196 were men.
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from realclearpolitics.com :


District 8, Tucson: Randy Graf (A/A) vs. Gabrielle Giffords (F/F). In this open seat, Graf won the primary against a Republican backed by the establishment, primarily because of Graf’s very strong stance against illegal immigration. Perversely, the national Republican party is refusing to help Graf, but his strong volunteer base has helped him close the gap to 8 points, according to late September/early October poll.

I hope Randy Graf wins as well, but here is a good example of the danger when some leaders in our movement put too many eggs in too few baskets.

No small group of races is a good measure of our issue. There are too many variables on campaigns.

To measure the issue it should be gauged spread out in many campaigns.

Our endorsement efforts reflect that philosophy.

W