Thread: Clinton and Trump Even Up; Turnout Looks to be Critical (POLL)

Clinton and Trump Even Up; Turnout Looks to be Critical (POLL)

By GARY LANGER
Oct 30, 2016, 7:00 AM ET

A slim point separates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll results, cementing Trump's resurgence in the past week and marking the potentially critical role of turnout in the election’s outcome.

The race stands at 46-45 percent, Clinton-Trump, in the latest results, so tight that the draw by third-party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein could matter. Clinton, +1 vs. Trump in a four-way trial heat, is +3 head-to-head –- not a significant difference, but suggestive.

About a third of likely voters say they’re less likely to support Clinton given FBI Director James Comey’s disclosure Friday that the bureau is investigating more emails related to its probe of Clinton’s use of a private email server while secretary of state. Given other considerations, 63 percent say it makes no difference.

Those who say the issue makes them less apt to back Clinton overwhelmingly back Trump in the first place. But what's key in a close contest is whether the disclosure gives Trump supporters further motivation to turn out for him –- and whether it demotivates reluctant Clinton backers.

In other results of the survey, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates:

• Regardless of the closeness of current preferences and plans to participate, 60 percent of likely voters still expect Clinton to win. This, too, may be a risk to her, potentially encouraging some Clinton supporters not to bother voting.

• Clinton continues to lead Trump in two key attributes. She is seen as more qualified to serve as president by a substantial 54-36 percent of likely voters, a result that makes the closeness of the race overall particularly remarkable. She's also seen to have a stronger moral character, albeit by a closer 46-38 percent.

• That said, the two are virtually tied, 46-43 percent, on another important measure: who better understands "the problems of people like you"; a similar gauge was important in Barack Obama's defeat of Mitt Romney in 2012. (In pre-tracking ABC/Post results, moreover, Clinton and Trump were tied in trust to handle two main issues -– the economy and terrorism -– as well as immigration.)

.........

Methodology

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 25-28, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,160 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 37-28-30 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clint...ry?id=43159639

Partisan divisions are 37-28-30 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents

Trump is only 1% behind when they're still over-sampling Democrats at 9% more than Republicans, when the actual demographic difference is between 3% to 4%.

So, better than 12% to 15% over sampling, but still "RIGGED", which means Trump is actually leading Clinton by 3% to 4%.

New average with new ABC and IBD Polls:

Clinton 45
Trump 41.6

Clinton Lead is 3.4% with at least 1 "RIGGED" poll from CNBC from a week ago included in the average which showed Clinton leading by 9%. When that garbage drops off, this race is tied or neck and neck.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...tein-5952.html

We must do EVERYTHING we can to get the GOP to vote. Senate races, too.

Find their social media pages and remind them to volunteer to turn out the vote.

Absolutely Captainron!! Trump can win and will win if we all get out there and vote and encourage others to vote. Their vote will not be wasted. This race is neck and neck even with the remnants of oversampling Democrats in all the polls, so based on the actual demographics, Trump's actually got this IF WE VOTE!!

VOTE!! VOTE!! VOTE!! VOTE!!

VOTE TRUMP!! VOTE TRUMP!! VOTE TRUMP!! VOTE TRUMP!! VOTE TRUMP!!