Thread: Venezuela: Trump administration calls for quick, peaceful conclusion to unrest

Venezuela: Trump administration calls for quick, peaceful conclusion to unrest

Published May 06, 2017 Fox News

Death toll in Venezuela protests rises to at least 33

The Trump administration is monitoring Venezuelan instability, and believes there is a strong need to bring weeks of anti-government protests in the country's capital Caracas to a quick and peaceful conclusion.

H.R. McMaster, U.S. President Donald Trump's national security adviser, met on Friday with Julio Borges, the president of Venezuela's opposition-led National Assembly, about the civil unrest which has been near-daily for five weeks, the White House said on Saturday.

They discussed "the need for the government to adhere to the Venezuelan Constitution, release political prisoners, respect the National Assembly, and hold free and democratic elections," White House press secretary Sean Spicer said in a statement to Reuters.

“Some of the acts there have been deplorable and [it's] certainly something that we’re monitoring very closely,” White House spokeswoman Sarah Huckabee Sanders told reporters on Friday, according to Reuters.

According to the Associated Press, clashes between police and protesters have left 38 dead in the past month.

Local news media on Friday carried a video circulating on Twitter of a statue of the late President Hugo Chavez being pulled down. The media reported that students destroyed the statue as they vented their anger with the food shortages, inflation and spiraling crime that have come to define life in the South American nation.

The protest movement has drawn masses of people into the street nearly every day since March, and shows no sign of slowing.

According to Reuters, embattled Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on Monday announced the creation of a new popular assembly which demonstrators decried as a power grab aimed at sidelining the National Assembly. Borges responded by calling on Venezuelans to rebel.

“We are deeply concerned about the Maduro government’s violent crackdown on protestors in Venezuela. President Maduro’s disregard for the fundamental rights of his own people has heightened the political and economic crisis in the country,” said Nikki Haley, the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations in a statement.

“The Maduro regime must respect Venezuela’s constitution and the voice of its people. We are particularly concerned that the government is failing to provide basic food and medical needs to the Venezuelan people,” Haley said.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/05...to-unrest.html

Do NOT bring them here.

They have land, they have oil, they have the MEANS to feed themselves!

Stop the unrelenting invasion of our Country.

Socialism at it's best...they voted it in...now to bring these lazy LEECHES here with their hands out to expect FREE food, no work, welfare and food stamps, FREE medical and breed like a rabbit IS NOT THE ANSWER!

Get off your rear end, fight for your country, get to work and FEED yourselves.

We do not want you.

They need to stop these crazy protests. No good is coming from it. I think the Snowflakes in US have motivated a great deal of this "resistance" with no means of their own to fix anything they are objecting to. These are stupid people for the most part, same as in the US, they are having a hard time in Venezuela for a lot of reasons and the protests are making it worse not better. They are creating the very situation to which they are objecting. US needs to tread carefully on any comments other than promoting peaceful discourse and establishing order in Venezuela.

So take a clue Nikki and shut up.

“We are deeply concerned about the Maduro government’s violent crackdown on protestors in Venezuela. President Maduro’s disregard for the fundamental rights of his own people has heightened the political and economic crisis in the country,” said Nikki Haley, the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations in a statement.

The violent protests are what has heightened the crisis, Nikki, not the crackdown.

The USA is not the worlds keeper. Where is the U.N on this? What are they doing to help Venezuela are they even involved? This is the UN'S problem not the USA's. Sticking our noses in all over the world is creating a lot of enemies that don't easily forget, not mention the billions wasted. The USA cannot afford a decent healthcare for citizens but we can stick our noses in all over the world. Stop it!

Armored military vehicle runs over Venezuelan protester

By Ray Sanchez, CNN Updated 5:46 PM ET, Fri May 5, 2017

This story contains graphic images.

(CNN)Sirens blared in the Altamira neighborhood of the Venezuelan capital of Caracas.

Anti-government protesters poured into the streets of this once bustling commercial and residential hub, their young faces obscured by tear-gas masks and bandanas. They hurled rocks and Molotov cocktails at riot police who responded Wednesday to the almost daily demonstrations calling for embattled President Nicolas Maduro to step down.

Police in riot gear opened fire with what appeared to be tear gas. A Molotov cocktail sparked a fire atop an armored National Guard vehicle. It backed away from the crowd. Protesters surrounded two members of the security forces.

The armored vehicle, flames spitting from its roof, plowed into the crowd. A young man, his head covered in a white rag, fell in front of the truck. A video camera captured the horror as someone in the crowd yelled, "Son of a -----!"


Armored military vehicles fighting against protesters

The truck rolled over 22-year-old Pedro Michell Yaminne. The moment was captured on video by a journalist.


Protesters watch as an armored truck runs over Yaminne...

http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/05/americ...ank/index.html

In Venezuela’s Chaos, Elites Play a High-Stakes Game for Survival

The Interpreter
By AMANDA TAUB and MAX FISHER MAY 6, 2017

Photo
Antigovernment protesters marching last month, carrying a sign that says, “No More Dictatorship.” Hundreds of thousands of protesters have taken to the streets of Caracas and other cities demanding elections in Venezuela.
CreditMeridith Kohut for The New York Times

Even as Venezuela sinks into chaos, with clashes between protesters and the police escalating, why have its powerful political and military elites stuck by President Nicolás Maduro?

The country would seem to be a prime candidate for something scholars call an “elite fracture,” in which enough powerful officials break away to force a change in leadership.

Long-mounting rage against Mr. Maduro’s government exploded this past week when he called for a new Constitution, widely seen as the latest in a series of a power grabs. Demonstrators have overwhelmed city streets, so far undeterred by a police crackdown in which hundreds have been arrested and dozens killed.

The violence deepens a months long crisis marked by food shortages, economic collapse and Mr. Maduro’s fumbling attempts to consolidate authority.

In quasi-democratic systems like Venezuela’s, such pressures have often led elites to force a change, and have provided them an excuse to do so.

“The fact that it hasn’t happened in the last two years is the biggest puzzle of all,” said Steven Levitsky, a Harvard University political scientist. “If it happens next week, all of us will say, ‘Yeah, it was bound to happen.’”

Still, splits are beginning to emerge, as a few figures in major institutions signal opposition to Mr. Maduro, hinting at growing dissatisfaction and the government’s inability to silence it.

Recent actions by both elites and the government suggest they take the possibility of fracture seriously — maneuvering in a high-stakes contest that is potentially decisive but whose outcome remains uncertain.

Photo
Luisa Ortega, Venezuela’s attorney general, left, speaking about the recent protests in Venezuela. She condemned a ruling by the pro-Maduro Supreme Court.CreditMiguel Gutierrez/European Pressphoto Agency

A Collective-Action Game

Elite fracture operates as a kind of game in which each player tries to figure out what the others are about to do. Stay loyal to a failing government too long and you risk going down with it. But if you break with the government and others don’t, you’ll pay a high price for disloyalty.

This may be as old as politics itself. Plato, the 4th-century B.C. Greek philosopher, wrote that a united elite could resist popular uprisings, but that when the ruling class fractured, power could change hands.

Members of the elite, in this game, try to test one another over where they stand, as well as the government’s strength, in order to decide whether to remain loyal. If enough believe they have achieved critical mass to force a leadership change, they will all push at once.

Luisa Ortega, the attorney general, conducted such a test, whether she intended to or not, in late March. When the pro-Maduro Supreme Court moved to seize many of the legislature’s powers, Ms. Ortega condemned the ruling as a “rupture of the constitutional order.”

The government faced a dilemma. Tolerating Ms. Ortega’s dissent would signal that elites could more freely break with Mr. Maduro, making action against him easier. But punishing her would risk backlash from any elites who shared her view.
Ms. Ortega went unpunished, and the ruling was reversed.

“It’s a sign of enormous weakness inside the ruling clique that Luisa Ortega took the position that she did and kept her job,” said Francisco Toro, a Venezuelan political scientist who edits the Caracas Chronicles website. “That’s never happened before.”

Rapid policy changes can open such fissures by forcing elites to decide whether to go along. In 2015, for instance, Mr. Maduro seemed to consider halting legislative elections, but ultimately agreed to hold them.

“They tried to go too far,” Mr. Levitsky said. “That created too much conflict within the regime.”

This is why periods of crisis can heighten risks of elite fracture, as governments make rapid changes to keep up.

The Deciding Vote

The deciding vote in these situations is often cast by the military, which has the power to break a deadlock among elites and, often, the popular legitimacy to lead a transition.

In Venezuela, some are already calling on the military to step in.

Luis Ugalde, a prominent Jesuit leader, said at a forum in February that Mr. Maduro’s government had shown “dictatorial character.” He called for a transitional government modeled after the 1958 military coup that then installed democracy.

Such statements can hardly force change. But by conferring pre-emptive legitimacy, they signal to potential coup leaders that they would enjoy at least some elite support.

Still, the government has been preparing its defenses since 2002. That year, amid major protests, Hugo Chávez, Mr. Maduro’s predecessor, ordered the military to impose order.

It instead removed him in a coup that was quickly reversed.

After that, Mr. Chávez packed the military with allies.

The military also gained vast patronage streams, which some local officials say include control over gold mining.

Photo
Yajaira Castro de Forero, the Venezuelan opposition deputy, argued with police officers in riot gear during a protest in front of the attorney general’s office in Caracas in March. CreditJuan Barreto/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

But 2002 also provided a warning that authoritarian leaders have learned repeatedly throughout history. Even a loyal military, when forced to resolve a political crisis, might decide against the leader who called it in.

The impossibility of fully predicting how the military might decide in another crisis, along with growing unrest that could again test it, has left the government nervous.

Last year, Cliver Alcalá, a retired major general, called for a referendum to unseat Mr. Maduro. Though Mr. Maduro ordered his arrest, Mr. Alcalá remains free and a vocal critic, although still under pressure. He recently claimed that rifle-wielding intelligence officers had tried to raid his home.

In March, a video spread on social media showing three lieutenants who said they no longer recognized Mr. Maduro’s authority. The next month, they turned up in Colombia, where they requested asylum.

The Venezuelan government has publicly demanded their return, which Mr. Levitsky called “pretty clear evidence that the government is worried about some sort of conspiracy” within the ranks.

Because the government cannot be sure whether these voices represent wider opposition within the military, it has to guess at how severely to silence them — a guessing game it cannot afford to get wrong.

A Shrinking Pie

But Mr. Maduro can also play this game. He has enabled loyalists to profit from corruption and patronage, giving them a financial stake in the government’s survival.

Photo
President Nicolás Maduro speaking in Caracas in October. He threatened to jail his political opponents if they followed through on their vow to hold a recall referendum. CreditJuan Barreto/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Loyalty was once purchased with oil revenue, but today, Mr. Toro said, the most valuable resource in Venezuela is access to favorable exchange rates. By leveraging official government rates, which value the bolívar considerably higher than the unofficial rate, someone with the proper connections can generate a small fortune out of thin air.

Drug and food smuggling also generate revenue, including for the military.

But as the economy worsens, elites compete over a smaller pie.

“When elites begin to compete among themselves, usually somebody defects,” Mr. Levitsky said, using the formal term for an elite who turns against the government.

Venezuela is also growing internationally isolated, forcing elites to fear they could face foreign sanctions or even criminal charges if they remain loyal and the government falls.

As threats mount, Mr. Levitsky said, “even actors who were bought off with patronage tend to worry.”

This is part of what makes the lack of widespread defection, amid Venezuela’s economic collapse, so unusual.

Maduro’s Secret Weapon

Pressed to explain Mr. Maduro’s resilience, Mr. Levitsky cited one of the only forces more powerful than economic self-interest: ideological polarization.

Photo
People picking through debris from a butcher shop that was one of over a dozen stores looted last month in El Valle, a working-class neighborhood in Caracas.CreditMeridith Kohut for The New York Times

Mr. Chavez’s hypercharged populism succeeded in so dividing society that crossing over remains, for many, unthinkable. And so ideological dedication remains widespread, including among elites.

“Defection is harder when the other side isn’t just some guy you disagree with about tax policy but rather is the enemy,” Mr. Levitsky said. “Moving to opposition, calling for Maduro’s fall, is still akin to treason. That atmosphere makes defection much harder.”

Zimbabwe, Mr. Levitsky said, might be the only other country whose government survived similar collapse. Its leader, Robert Mugabe, maintained elite support by framing his fight against dissent as a continuation of the revolutionary movement he had led against the white-supremacist colonial regime in Rhodesia.

That same fervor could create an opportunity for dissidents, however. Venezuela’s few defecting elites have tended to portray themselves as the true guardians of Mr. Chávez’s cause and Mr. Maduro as the traitor.

This past week, Ms. Ortega told The Wall Street Journal that Mr. Maduro’s move for a new Constitution was an attack on “Chávez’s Constitution” — portraying Mr. Maduro as the one who had betrayed the system.

The country’s widespread shortages of food and medicine could also provide an opening for Ms. Ortega and other defectors to claim that the government is not fulfilling its socialist mission.

And younger, second-tier Chávistas may worry about Mr. Maduro’s damage to the cause and its longevity.

“These guys have a stake in preserving some semblance of political capital in Chávismo,” Mr. Levitsky said.

This is why coups are often led by colonels or civilians of equivalent rank, who also enjoy fewer fruits of patronage and so face less downside in defecting.

But movement can come only when elites, junior or senior, are sure they have the numbers to win. And any contest over ideological loyalty will tilt toward the status quo. The rules of the game still favor Mr. Maduro, even if the state of play does not.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/06/w...-protests.html

Venezuela falls behind on oil-for-loan deals with China, Russia ($55 BILLION)

That same fervor could create an opportunity for dissidents, however. Venezuela’s few defecting elites have tended to portray themselves as the true guardians of Mr. Chávez’s cause and Mr. Maduro as the traitor.

This past week, Ms. Ortega told The Wall Street Journal that Mr. Maduro’s move for a new Constitution was an attack on “Chávez’s Constitution” — portraying Mr. Maduro as the one who had betrayed the system.

The protestors are socialists who followed Chavez and his Constitution.

As Venezuela Starves, Government Owned Citgo Gave $500,000 to Trump Inauguration

Can Washington Save Venezuela From Its Socialist Government?

Kenneth Rapoza , CONTRIBUTOR

I cover business and investing in emerging markets.
Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.

One day closer to dictatorship. Socialist ideologue and highly unpopular president of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, gestures during a speech to the military in Caracas on April 17, 2017.Venezuela's defense minister on Monday declared the army's loyalty to Maduro. (Photo by FEDERICO PARRA/AFP/Getty Images)


Venezuela is eroding. There may be no turning back. Unless the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela, or PSUV, kicks Nicholas Maduro out, then he will stick around until the December 2018 elections. That is, if there are any elections held at all.

Thursday marked day four in a week of protests against Maduro and PSUV. No one in Venezuela is calling for an intervention, though Maduro calls the protesters coup plotters. American interventions in Latin America are not well received. But on Wednesday, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson mentioned Venezuela, saying Washington is watching. This is more fodder for Maduro, who will use it as a way to whip up the left who see CIA bogeymen behind every tree, like Democrats see Russians and Republicans see Muslim terrorists.

"We are concerned about that situation. We're watching it closely and working with others...to communicate those concerns," Tillerson said.

On Thursday, GM said it would no longer be in the car business in this country, a business they have basically bowed out of since 2015 anyway following a 15 year lawsuit against their local Venezuelan partner. But they didn't think it would end with their property being illegally seized by the government.

This is the new and future Venezuela, a Cuba 2.0 at a time when Cuba is opening slowly to the U.S. It is regressing, living out the political fantasies of its radical left wing leadership.

The central bank has around $10 billion to its name.

People are protesting because they have nothing to lose. Literally.

Some don't even have food to lose.

The WSJ reported today that some poor Venezuelans are too exhausted to join the march against Maduro. They have very little energy left. Not only that, the poorest of the poor, who dwell in the nation's slums outside of its big urban centers, are often terrorized by motorcycle gangs working unofficially for the government to keep them at bay.

At least three protesters have been killed, but they are resilient and have yet to let up. The opposition is calling for four things in these protests. One of them is immediate national elections. That's not going to happen. If it did, PSUV would be swept out of power like beach sand being sucked out to sea in a hurricane. They also want the judiciary to back-off the national assembly, which has a sizable opposition coalition that gets absolutely nothing accomplished. They want all political prisoners freed, of which around 150 are officially locked up. And they want Maduro to open the country up to global humanitarian channels. Maduro says there is no crisis. He says all is 'chevere' down there. He is lying.

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Incredible video of lone woman standing up to the brutal Maduro regime in Venezuela, blocking military trucks from overrunning protesters.
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Washington, Wall Street and Venezuelan Oil
Venezuelan oil is junk. If you stick it on a plate, turn it upside down and hang it from a tree, it will still be glued to the plate. It's Gorilla Grip gunk. Refineries outside of China's old teapot refiners don't really have any deep appreciation for Venezuelan crude.

PdVSA, the state controlled oil firm, is the piggy bank of PSUV. It recently made good on April coupon payments to bond holders. Money is running out, but Venezuela's government seems to find it at the last minute without totally destroying its central bank reserves. For some, they are finding it illicitly, through narcotics trafficking. For Wall Street, they are paying their bills on junk bonds like the PdVSA 2022, priced at around 62 with a yield close to 20% in dollars.

See: Sorry Bond Lords, Venezuela Is A Dictatorship Now -- Forbes

Maduro Says Coup Plotters Defeated Again! -- TeleSur
Venezuela's Brain Drain -- CNN

PdVSA has a spider web-like collection of offshore holding companies, registered in Deleware, that own Citgo gas stations. Anyone who has ever been to a Boston Red Sox game or has seen pictures of Fenway Park has seen the ubiquitous orange triangle of the Citgo sign. In a complicated bond swap deal last year, PdVSA sold some 49% of its equity as collateral. Then a few weeks later it took out a loan for around $1.5 billion from Russia's state owned oil firm Rosneft, with the remaining Citgo shares pledged to secure the loan. Russiophobes in Washington like Senator Bob Menendez of New Jersey warn that if PdVSA defaults, Rosneft gets Citgo.

But none of this is really going to move Washington to act.
As one ex-diplomat in Venezuela told me on the condition of anonymity, "There is nothing here of global interest. At best Washington should sanction individuals and their families who have million dollar homes up and down the East Coast of the United States. But that might happen only if all hell breaks loose and you have a military dictatorship running roughshod over the country."

After 18 years of constant ideological purges in the military and indoctrination at the recruitment level to think socialism, militarism, and anti-Yankee capitalism, the Venezuelan military is on the side of Maduro and PSUV.

They are not going to come in and save democracy. It is hard to see a successful popular uprising against this government today.

"Venezuela is reliant on the U.S. as a buyer of its oil. Would that change if PdVSA folded and Citgo was taken over by the Russians or the Chinese? Would that get Washington interested? Time will tell, but it looks like Trump has too much on his plate right now," says Fernando Pertini, chief investment officer of Millenia Asset Management in Panama City. He recalls Washington's ouster of Manuel Noriega of Panama in the 1980s, something the U.S. fomented for months before 27,000 U.S. troops invaded and overwhelmed Panama's tiny army. That would not be the case in Venezuela.

There is one similarity between Venezuela and Panama, however, and Wall Street knows it. If Maduro and PSUV fall, PdVSA bonds rally hard. Pre-Noriega, Panama bonds were priced at low 40 (out of a par value of 100) and quickly rallied post-Noriega. PdVSA bonds dated 2022 were priced in the 40s a year ago and are in the 60s today. For those who aren't bond experts, bond prices are based on a value of 100. Anything over 100 means the bond is in hot demand and priced at a premium. Anything below 100 means the bond is not in hot demand and priced at a discount. The lower the price, the more risky the debt because interest rates are higher and therefore debt service costs are higher, adding to default risk.

Venezuela is a default risk. Only PSUV can "save" it.

Fans of Nicholas Maduro and PSUV demigod Hugo Chavez. Why? (Photo by FEDERICO PARRA/AFP/Getty Images)


Recently, a very cocky Communes Minister and ex-Veep, Elias Jaua, asked the opposition: "Have you had enough or do you want more of the same?" His comments show that the party feels there is nothing to negotiate with these people. They are merely coup-plotters, a tool of the opposition. The protesters are armed with flags, flares and marching songs. PSUV is armed with guns and armored vehicles.

People are marching because they are starving. The security situation is out of control, says John Sweeney, a Caracas based security consultant and one of a dwindling handful of expat Americans living in Venezuela. It's become too dangerous for foreigners. A prominent American lawyer named John Pate, 70, was stabbed to death in his Caracas home in 2015 during a botched kidnapping. Sweeney is based there.

"You're standing in line for food. You can't find spare parts for cars anymore and gasoline is hard to come by in oil rich Venezuela," he says. "There are lines for miles for gasoline.

The official exchange rate is 10 to one and the black market rate is 4500 to one. Take public transport, and you're bound to be robbed."

Earlier this month, Nomura Securities managing director Siobhan Morden hit the nail on the head when she said that that Venezuela is too "geopolitically irrelevant" for Washington to act.

Last week, MIT scholar and foreign policy guru Noam Chomsky went on Democracy Now! to call Venezuela "a disaster". He said PSUV was corrupt to the core. Orlando Ochoa, a well-respected Venezuelan economist, recently lamented that the crisis has taken so many people out of Venezuela that it will take two generations to recover from this mess. He also estimates that the country needs around $80 billion in emergency aid, aid PSUV has rejected and will continue to reject out of fear of admitting the situation is no longer in their control.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapo.../#1e4d3ac95580