Thread: Immigrants filling the void as residents flee N.J. by the tens of thousands

More expected to flee New Jersey as Baby Boomers age

Kala Kachmar, Asbury Park (N.J.) Press, Neptune, N.J.10:53 p.m. EST January 12, 2015


(Photo: Digital Collections/IPTC)

ASBURY PARK, N.J. — For Raymond Francisco, landing a job at the General Motors auto plant in Linden at 25 years old was like winning the lottery.

The New Brunswick native was a welder by trade, and enjoyed working hard for the good money he made at the plant. But when GM announced in 2002 it would close the factory — about six years after he started — Francisco decided he had to go where the jobs were.

That meant packing up his wife, two small children and moving to Lordstown, Ohio, where GM offered him another job at an assembly plant.

People are leaving New Jersey at a higher rate than 47 other states, just behind New York, which is No. 1, and Illinois, according to James Hughes, a demographer and dean of the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University, New Brunswick.

A United Van Lines study based on household moves handle by the company in 2014 found that about 65% of the state's moves are outbound, which is a higher percentage than any other state in the country. New York was close behind with 64%, and Illinois was 63%.



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Although data show the number of people leaving New Jersey has only slightly increased during the past 15 years, demographers predict that the state will see a more significant loss of residents — especially Millennials and Baby Boomers — over the next several years.

The population of New Jersey isn't decreasing, but the components are changing, according to data from the U.S. Census.

From 2010 to 2014, about 204,000 people living in New Jersey left. There were about 50,000 more people per year moving out of New Jersey than moving in from other U.S. states.
But that 204,000 was replaced by about 211,000 people moving to New Jersey from Puerto Rico and other countries. Those figures include foreign-born and U.S.-born individuals, as well as the movement of U.S. Armed Forces from overseas.

During a five-year stretch, from 2006 to 2011, the state lost more than 90,000 taxpayers — and $8 billion in income — to other states and countries that was not made up from new workers within the state, according to an analysis of IRS tax and migration records

From 2000 to about 2010, that net domestic loss was steady at about 45,000 people per year, Hughes said.

Like so many others who are leaving New Jersey in droves, Francisco realized his dollars go a lot further in other states.

"It was the scariest thing I ever did in my life — moving out of New Jersey," he said. "My daughter was just born, my son was 5. But looking back, it worked out for the best."

Hughes said for many retirees, moving out of New Jersey — away from a high cost of living in general — is an economic no-brainer. High property taxes, transportation tolls and death taxes are all financial disincentives for aging New Jerseyans.

By the end of 2015, Baby Boomers — those born between 1946 and 1964 — will be 51 to 69 years old.



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"They're all prime candidates for retirements and are perhaps looking for affordability," Hughes said. "We could see a huge increase (of migration out of New Jersey) going forward."

But the rate at which people are leaving isn't unique to New Jersey. People are leaving the Northeast in general.

The United Van Lines study found that four of the top 10 states people are fleeing from are Northeastern states, which include Connecticut and Pennsylvania in addition to New Jersey and New York. And that trend has been the same for about three years now, with more than one in four United Van Lines survey respondents saying they're leaving for retirement.

"Job growth has been much, much faster in North Carolina, Georgia and the likes," Hughes said. "If there's a lack of employment opportunities here, those are attractive options. Charlotte, North Carolina, has become a huge financial center in the country."

Francisco said although he misses New Jersey and comes back to visit family and friends about twice a year since he left, he couldn't afford to live in the Garden State again.

In 2000, Francisco bought his 2,000-square-foot, three-bedroom house in Old Bridge for about $220,000 — the most he could afford. He paid about $6,000 per year in taxes.

When he sold it in 2005, he was able to buy a brand new, 4,500-square-foot house in Ohio for $280,000. He pays about half the amount of taxes for more than twice the space, and his children go to school in an excellent district.

"Taxes in New Jersey are just killing people," he said. "I look back — pop my head in the paper or look online — to see how much people are paying to live, and I don't know how people are surviving anymore."

Hughes said it's common for families, especially retirees who rode the inflation cycle for years, to cash out on their expensive houses and get something comparable in a Southern state or Midwestern state for half the price.

Brick natives Brittany and Michael Molawka left New Jersey in 2011 for Utah. Michael Molawka, who had been on active duty in the N.J. Army National Guard, couldn't find a job in his field after he came back from his deployment in Iraq and finished school.



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The couple moved to Utah so he could work for a military contractor. But in 2013, health problems brought them back to New Jersey so they could be closer to family. Fortunately, he was able to find work in New Jersey, Brittany Molawka said.

"My husband makes the same amount of money here as we did in Utah," she said. "But we're not able to have the same things we were able to have there. We took weekend trips and vacations. Money goes a lot further there."

The 29-year-old mother of two said they had a $1,200 monthly mortgage payment on a 3,200-square-foot house. Now, they're paying more than $1,500 per month to rent a 900-square-foot apartment in Toms River.

"You have to go where your job is," she said. "My husband hates it because we're paying so much more for rent. We had a nicer house and nicer things in Utah."

Even though Southern states are supposedly going to lure retirees to warmer weather and lower property taxes over the next 18 or so years, Hughes said, the top states people move to from New Jersey are still New York and Pennsylvania, according to U.S. Census data.

Patrick Guaschino, who from 2011 to 2013 commuted to his entry level job at a publishing company in Manhattan from his parents' house in Toms River, couldn't afford to commute and pay high New Jersey rents.

Guaschino would spent $495 and 80 hours a month on his bus commute.

"For certain fields, you work in Manhattan or you don't work," he said. "At the time, I lived with my parents and the circumstances were OK because transportation was my only major expense."

In 2013, he moved to Brooklyn, which cut his transit costs by more than 80% and eliminated his need for a car.

"Living in New York was what made economic sense," said Guaschino, who is now 29. "It's such a shame because I feel like New Jersey has classically been a great place to live and commute to New York. That's so much of what built the state — access to the city and great opportunities for jobs."

But he said the high cost of living and high transit costs are making is difficult for young people to afford New Jersey.

Hughes said Millennials are among those expected to leave New Jersey, but for different reasons. People in their 20s and 30s are suffering from suburban fatigue — they want to be in live-work-play environments all the time.

"Brooklyn is draining the young demographic vitality of central New Jersey," Hughes said. "Baby Boomers couldn't wait to get out of Brooklyn. Their children can't wait to get back in."

There are a lot of young people who want to live in places like Jersey City, Morristown and Hoboken, Hughes said, but there are only a few places like that in New Jersey. Cost is less of a factor, and lifestyle — including living in edgy environments in close proximity to restaurants, museums and public transit — is more important to Millennials, he said.

"New Jersey doesn't have the best image in the world," he said. "Young people want to be in fashionable places."

Top destinations of those leaving New Jersey
1. New York
2. Pennsylvania
3. California
4. Florida
5. North Carolina
Source: IRS State Outflow data 2010-11

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/n...-age/21672843/

Top destinations of those leaving New Jersey

1. New York
2. Pennsylvania
3. California
4. Florida
5. North Carolina

Nice to see North Carolina is a top destination point!

. . . Hughes said for many retirees, moving out of New Jersey — away from a high cost of living in general — is an economic no-brainer. High property taxes, transportation tolls and death taxes are all financial disincentives for aging New Jerseyans.

By the end of 2015, Baby Boomers — those born between 1946 and 1964 — will be 51 to 69 years old.


"They're all prime candidates for retirements and are perhaps looking for affordability," Hughes said. "We could see a huge increase (of migration out of New Jersey) going forward."

But the rate at which people are leaving isn't unique to New Jersey. People are leaving the Northeast in general.

The United Van Lines study found that four of the top 10 states people are fleeing from are Northeastern states, which include Connecticut and Pennsylvania in addition to New Jersey and New York. And that trend has been the same for about three years now, with more than one in four United Van Lines survey respondents saying they're leaving for retirement . . .

United Van Lines' Annual National Movers Study shows top inbound and outbound states of the year and reveals Oregon as the No. 1 moving destination in 2014

Hughes said for many retirees, moving out of New Jersey — away from a high cost of living in general — is an economic no-brainer. High property taxes, transportation tolls and death taxes are all financial disincentives for aging New Jerseyans.

Makes perfect sense.

But wait a minute, the top destination for those leaving New Jersey is .... New York? The second is Pennsylvania, and California is third?

Top destinations of those leaving New Jersey

1. New York
2. Pennsylvania
3. California
4. Florida
5. North Carolina

In mainland USA, excluding DC, New York is the highest cost of living state, followed by New Jersey and California, yet New York is number one destination point and California is third for those leaving New Jersey. This rules out the insinuation that retirees moving to cheaper locations are responsible for the shift in population in New Jersey from citizens to immigrants.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/...ates/15455129/

The telling fact in this story is that during the same time span that 51,000 immigrants moved to New Jersey, 55,000 Americans left, which when matched with the fact that since 2000, all net job growth in the US has been filled with illegal aliens and immigrants means New Jersey lost its citizens and other legal residents because illegal aliens and new cheaper immigrants took their jobs.

United Van Lines' Annual National Movers Study Shows Oregon Increases Lead as Top Moving Destination for 2014

Northeast Residents Flee for Third Consecutive Year

ST. LOUIS, Jan. 2, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- Oregon holds on to its title as "Top Moving Destination" and continues to pull away from the pack, while the Northeast loses residents for the third consecutive year.

Those are the key findings from United Van Lines' 38th Annual National Movers Study, which tracks customers' migration patterns state-to-state during the course of the past year. The study found that Oregon is the top moving destination of 2014, with 66 percent of moves to and from the state being inbound — that's a nearly 5 percent increase of inbound moves compared to 2013. Arriving at No. 2 on the list was South Carolina (61 percent inbound), followed closely in third by its northern neighbor, North Carolina (61 percent).

The District of Columbia, which held the top spot on the inbound list from 2008 to 2012 and ranked fourth last year, fell to No. 7 this year with 57 percent inbound moves. New additions to the 2014 top inbound list include Vermont (59 percent), Oklahoma (57 percent) and Idaho (56 percent).

The Northeast is experiencing a moving deficit with New Jersey (65 percent outbound), New York (64 percent) and Connecticut (57 percent) making the list of top outbound states for the third consecutive year.

In a separate survey of its customers, United Van Lines found the Northeast region also had the highest number of people leaving for retirement with more than one in four respondents indicating retirement as the reason for relocation. The Mountain West had the highest number of retirees moving to the region with nearly one in three individuals surveyed saying they relocated there to retire.

"We've been tracking the number of inbound and outbound domestic moves for nearly four decades, and through our data are able to identify the most and least popular states for residential relocation year after year. This year we also surveyed customers to determine why they were relocating," said Melissa Sullivan, director of marketing communications at United Van Lines. "As the nation's largest household goods mover, United Van Lines shipment and survey data paints an accurate reflection of the overall U.S. state-to-state moving trends."

"With economic stability growing nationally, the current migration patterns reflect longer-term trends of movement to the southern and western states, especially to those where housing costs are relatively lower, climates are more temperate and job growth has been at or above the national average, among other factors," said Michael Stoll, economist, professor and chair of the Department of Public Policy at the University of California, Los Angeles. "Unique amenities such as outdoor recreation, arts and entertainment activities, and green space protection likely continue to propel Oregon to the top of the list for the second straight year."

United has tracked migration patterns annually on a state-by-state basis since 1977. For 2014, the study is based on household moves handled by United within the 48 contiguous states and Washington, D.C. United classifies states as "high inbound" if 55 percent or more of the moves are going into a state, "high outbound" if 55 percent or more moves were coming out of a state or "balanced" if the difference between inbound and outbound is negligible.

Moving In
The top inbound states of 2014 were:

1. Oregon
2. South Carolina
3. North Carolina
4. Vermont
5. Florida
6. Nevada
7. Texas
8. District of Columbia
9. Oklahoma
10. Idaho

The Western U.S. is represented on the high-inbound list by Oregon (66 percent) and Nevada (57 percent). Of moves to Oregon, a new job (38 percent) and retirement (29 percent) led the reasons for most inbound moves.Nevada remained on the high inbound list for the fourth consecutive year.

Moving Out
The top outbound states for 2014 were:

1. New Jersey
2. New York
3. Illinois
4. North Dakota
5. West Virginia
6. Ohio
7. Kansas
8. New Mexico
9. Pennsylvania
10. Connecticut

In addition to the Northeast, Illinois (63 percent) held steady at the No. 3 spot, ranking in the top five for the last six years.

New additions to the 2014 top outbound list include North Dakota (61 percent), Ohio (59 percent) and Kansas(58 percent).
Balanced

Several states gained approximately the same number of residents as those that left. Traffic in states including Rhode Island, New Hampshire and Wyoming leveled this year compared to 2013 migration data. Tennessee appeared on the balanced list for the second consecutive year.

To view the entire study and archived press releases from United, visit the United Van Lines Newsroom.

About United Van Lines
United Van Lines is America's #1 Mover®, offering a full range of moving solutions from do-it-yourself to full-service. With headquarters in suburban St. Louis, United Van Lines maintains a network of 400 affiliated agencies. For more information about United Van Lines visit UnitedVanLines.com.
Photo - http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20150101/166626
SOURCE United Van Lines

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-relea...300015002.html

A sharp rise in the number of immigrants living in the U.S. in recent decades serves as a backdrop for the debate in Congress over the nation’s immigration policies. In 1990, the U.S. had 19.8 million immigrants. That number rose to a record 40.7 million immigrants in 2012, among them 11.7 million unauthorized immigrants.

Over this period, the number of immigrants in the U.S. increased more than five times as much as the U.S.-born population (106.1% versus 19.3%), according to a Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data. As a result, from 1990 to 2012, the share of immigrants in the entire U.S. increased from 7.9% in 1990 to 13.0% in 2012.


Today there are four states in which about one-in-five or more people are foreign born—California, New York, New Jersey and Florida. By contrast, in 1990, California was the only state to have more than a fifth of its population born outside the U.S.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank...ir-population/

New Jersey remains steady as one of the top three immigrant attracting states in the country. It's no wonder then that New Jerseyans displaced by immigrants are leaving the state looking for work elsewhere.

Northeast loses 40% of House seats as people flee high-tax states

BY PAUL BEDARD | SEPTEMBER 30, 2014 | 11:21 AM

The Northeast, once the nation’s political engine that produced presidents, House speakers and Senate giants including the late Edward M. Kennedy, is losing clout in Washington as citizens flee the high-tax region, according to experts worried about the trend.

The Census Bureau reports that population growth has shifted to the South and the result is that the 11 states that make up the Northeast are being bled dry of representation in Washington.

Critics blame rising taxes in states such as Massachusetts and Connecticut for limiting population growth in the Northeast to just 15 percent from 1983 to 2013, while the rest of the nation grew more than 41 percent.

The biggest impact comes in the loss of congressional representation.

Deep in a recent report, for example, the American Legislative Exchange Council tabulated how the drop in population relative to the rest of the nation cut the region’s power in Washington. While the states from Pennsylvania to Maine had 141 House members in 1950, they are down to 85 today, a drop of some 40 percent.

WEX TV

California and Texas combined have more House representatives..

“This result is one of the most dramatic demographic shifts in American history. This migration is shifting the power center of America right before our very eyes. The movement isn’t random or even about weather or resources. Economic freedom is the magnet and states ignore this force at their own peril,” said the report.

Paul Bedard, the Washington Examiner's "Washington Secrets" columnist, can be contacted at pbedard@washingtonexaminer.com.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/no...rticle/2554143

Originally Posted by JohnDoe2

People retire and move to Florida too.

Yes, and those retirements create job openings which would normally be filled with American workers, either workers in New Jersey, or new citizens moving to New Jersey to fill the jobs vacated by those retiring and moving elsewhere, but that isn't what's happening in New Jersey because those existing jobs as well as the new jobs are being filled with illegal aliens and immigrants. People retiring and moving somewhere else is just a normal migration pattern of Americans. What is not normal is 51,000 immigrants moving into New Jersey in the same time span as 55,000 New Jerseyans move out.

http://www.alipac.us/f12/n-j-ceo-sen...-fraud-318527/