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  1. #1
    Senior Member AirborneSapper7's Avatar
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    Does Syria Want A War?

    Guest Post: Does Syria Want A War?



    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/23/2012 10:42 -0400

    Submitted by John Aziz of Azizonomics


    Does Syria Want A War?


    We know for sure that Syria intentionally shot down a Turkish — and thus protected by NATO — warplane in its airspace. We also know that Syria is comfortable enough to admit it.

    The AP reports:
    Syria said Friday it shot down a Turkish military plane that entered Syrian air space, and Turkey vowed to “determinedly take necessary steps” in response.

    It was the most clear and dramatic escalation in tensions between the two countries, which used to be allies before the Syrian revolt began in March 2011. Turkey has become one of the strongest critics of the Syrian regime’s brutal response to the country’s uprising.

    Late Friday, Syria’s state-run news agency, SANA, said the military spotted an “unidentified aerial target” that was flying at a low altitude and at a high speed.

    “The Syrian anti-air defenses counteracted with anti-aircraft artillery, hitting it directly,” SANA said. “The target turned out to be a Turkish military plane that entered Syrian airspace and was dealt with according to laws observed in such cases.”

    It seems pretty clear that the Syrians know the consequences of their actions. NATO (including deluded US hawks who are happy to ignore the disastrous consequences of the drug war on the US border while talking up more intervention in the middle east) and the NATO-backed Syrian opposition has been looking for any excuse to get stuck into a new interventionist mission. We know that the NATO-backed opposition were prepared to try and get a British journalist killed in a false flag operation in order to trigger a Western intervention.
    So why did Russia-armed Syria do it? And why (given the age of F-4 aircraft, it could easily have crashed of its own accord giving the Syrians a lot of plausible deniability) are they not at least denying that they shot it down?
    Is it possible that the wider Eurasian anti-American coalition led by the Russians and the Chinese are confident that NATO will not intervene out of fear of triggering a wider war? After all the Russian naval base has been a great obstacle to NATO intervention. Libya didn’t have any Russian bases, and it took far less internal violence for NATO to intervene there.
    Is it even possible that the Eurasians are trying to provoke NATO into another costly and damaging war? After all, the American Empire is much more indebted and militarily overstretched than it was before 9/11. Osama bin Laden’s goal of dragging the United States into the middle eastern quagmire, and thereby bankrupting America has been an unmitigated success. Could the Eurasians be trying to provoke a regional war in order to weaken NATO and draw attention away from their own weakened economic picture?
    Or is this just a case of an overzealous Syrian military commander taking a potshot at an unidentified flying object and provoking a diplomatic crisis?
    As someone who does not believe that war is in any way an economic stimulus and should be avoided beyond self-preservation, I hope that this crisis — and the wider Syrian situation — can be defused.
    Those who want to see a big military-Keynesian stimulus may be hoping for an escalation…


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    Senior Member AirborneSapper7's Avatar
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    Escalation: Syria Says Turkish Jet Shot Down Was Over Syrian Territorial Waters




    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/22/2012 18:25 -0400

    The "Syrianna" story from this afternoon, which many were quick to label as merely a lot of diplomatic hot air and rhetoric, just turned uglier, after Syria not only did not officially apologize as Turkey PM Erdogan implied had happened previously for the shot down Turkish F-4 fighter jet, but instead turned the tables on Turkey, and gave itself an out for what is now a definitive military action. From Reuters:


    The Syrian military said it shot down a Turkish military aircraft "over Syrian territorial waters" on Friday.

    "Our air defences confronted a target that penetrated our air space over our territorial waters pre-afternoon on Friday and shot it down. It turned out to be a Turkish military plane," a statement by the military circulated on state media said.
    The only question remains whether Syria's act was offensive or defensive. Naturally, its version is one of self-defense. Turkey obviously will claim it was in its right to be wherever the plane may be, and will say this was an act of provocation. Then NATO, read Hillary Clinton, will promptly step in, and make this a case in which Turkey was in its right and that Syria committed an act of aggression. From there, things will just escalate, and can potentially deteriorate to a far more troubling scale, because as we reminded earlier, Syria has recently become a major symbol for NATO vs the Russia-China axis:


    Here is the rub: Turkey is a NATO member, and by definition the alliance will have to come to Turkey's aid if requested. Syria, however is not just any country as has been made quite clear over the past several months of UN impotence: it is a critical staging ground for both Russia (which has a very critical regional naval base in the city of Tartus) and China, and according to the Jerusalem Post, the three countries are in preparation to conduct the "largest ever" war game. As such Syria, already gripped by fierce local fighting, where just like in Egypt and Libya the presence of US-based flipflop on the ground can be smelt from across the Atlantic, is merely a symbol. The real implication is how far can little escalations push until finally the showdown begins, with NATO on one side and Russia and China on the other?
    Ultimately, the key catalyst here may be something as simple as whether the pilot of the Turkish plane are alive or dead. BBC explains:


    Given the breakdown in relations between the two countries over the Syrian conflict, this incident has the potential to provoke a serious crisis. When gunfire from Syrian forces crossed the Turkish border earlier this year, Ankara threatened a military response.

    Much will depend on whether or not the Turkish pilots have survived. If not, public anger might push the government into some kind of punitive action against Syria.

    Syria's response will also influence Turkey's reaction. A clear apology, and a statement that the shooting was unintentional, might be enough to assuage Turkish anger.

    But then again, we do not know yet whether the aircraft were clearly in Turkish airspace or not. Initial Turkish reports that they came down eight miles from Syrian territorial waters suggests that they were, but Syria may claim otherwise.
    At this point it is clear no apology will be forthcoming as Syria's official story is that Turkey had effectively committed an act of aggression against it. So it is up to the viability of the pilots. If dead, anyone who may have been shorting Brent into the weekend may have a nasty surprise come start of trading Monday.
    Where the crash supposedly happened:

    courtesy of @Thalion_1

    Escalation: Syria Says Turkish Jet Shot Down Was Over Syrian Territorial Waters | ZeroHedge


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    Senior Member AirborneSapper7's Avatar
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    Syria Shoots Down NATO-Member Turkey's Military F-4 Jet



    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/22/2012 12:23 -0400

    Update 4 from the BBC: getting warmer in here.


    Turkey's government has called an emergency security meeting amid reports that one of its fighter jets was shot down by Syrian security forces.

    The Turkish military earlier said it had lost contact with an F-4 Phantom over the Mediterranean Sea on Friday morning, south-west of Hatay province.

    It did not confirm reports that Syrian air defence forces were responsible.

    But local media are quoting Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan as saying "the other side have expressed regret".

    Mr Erdogan also revealed that the two crew members were safe.

    Relations between Turkey and Syria, once close allies, have deteriorated sharply since the uprising against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad began in March 2011.
    ...
    Witnesses in the Syrian coastal city of Latakia meanwhile told BBC Arabic that Syrian air defences had shot down an unidentified aircraft near the town of Ras al-Basit.

    There was no immediate confirmation from Turkish officials, but later it was announced that Mr Erdogan would be holding an emergency meeting with his top military and intelligence chiefs to discuss the missing plane.

    Mr Erdogan was also said to have told Turkish reporters on a flight back from Brazil that "the other side have expressed regret" over the downing of the F-4, and also that the pilots had been recovered.
    Update 3: they are making it up as they go along:

    • TURKISH PM SAYS HAS NO FIRM INFORMATION ON ANY APOLOGY FROM SYRIA, WILL MAKE FURTHER STATEMENT AFTER SECURITY MEETING
    • TURKISH PM SAYS CANNOT SAY WHETHER TURKISH WARPLANE SHOT DOWN OR CRASHED, NO NEWS ON PILOTS - TURKISH TV

    Looks like everyone is trying to position appropriately.
    Update 2 from Syria: Oops, sorry.


    Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday that Syria had admitted it shot down a Turkish warplane in the Mediterranean and that Damascus had apologized.

    The two pilots of the Turkish F-4 fighter jet are alive, Erdogan had earlier said, before holding a press conference in Ankara.

    “At this moment the air force and navy are conducting search and rescue operations in the western Mediterranean and luckily our pilots are alive, we have just lost a plane,” he told journalists while travelling back from Brazil.

    Earlier, the Turkish army said it lost radar and radio contact with one of its aircrafts on the Mediterranean near neighboring Syria, and a television station said it had crashed in Syrian territorial waters.

    But Lebanon’s Hezbollah-owned Al-Manar television station said that Syrian air defenses shot down the Turkish military aircraft, quoting Syrian security sources.

    “Syrian security sources confirmed to a Manar correspondent in Damascus that Syrian defense forces shot down the Turkish fighter jet,” the Hezbollah-owned channel said.

    Turkey, which had drawn close to Syria before the uprising against Assad, became one of the Syrian leader’s fiercest critics when he responded violently to pro-democracy protests inspired by popular upheavals elsewhere in the Arab world.

    Ankara has previously floated the possibility of setting up some kind of safe haven or humanitarian corridor inside Syria, which would entail military intervention, but has said it would undertake no such action without U.N. Security Council approval.

    Turkey said it had lost contact with one of its military aircraft off its southeastern coast, and a television station said it had crashed in Syrian territorial waters.

    The plane took off from Malatya airbase in the southeast at 0730 GMT and lost communication with the base at 0858 GMT in the southwest of the Hatay province bordering Syria, the military command said in a statement posted online.

    “Search and rescue efforts have started immediately,” it said.
    Update from Al Jazeera: Turkish PM says cannot say whether Turkish warplane shot down or crashed, no news on pilots.
    Just when the geopolitical tensions in the middle east appeared to be abating, and Brent was on a gentle glideslope to whatever price will greenlight the NEW QE now that fears of an Iran war have been very much silenced, things change. Reuters reports that Syria shot down a Turkish warplane on Friday, according to Lebanon's al-Manar television reported, "risking a new crisis between Middle Eastern neighbours already at bitter odds over a 16-month-old revolt against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad." "Syrian security sources confirmed to a Manar correspondent in Damascus that Syrian defence forces shot down the Turkish fighter jet," the Hezbollah-owned channel said."
    Here is the rub: Turkey is a NATO member, and by definition the alliance will have to come to Turkey's aid if requested. Syria, however is not just any country as has been made quite clear over the past several months of UN impotence: it is a critical staging ground for both Russia (which has a very critical regional naval base in the city of Tartus) and China, and according to the Jerusalem Post, the three countries are in preparation to conduct the "largest ever" war game. As such Syria, already gripped by fierce local fighting, where just like in Egypt and Libya the presence of US-based flipflop on the ground can be smelt from across the Atlantic, is merely a symbol. The real implication is how far can little escalations push until finally the showdown begins, with NATO on one side and Russia and China on the other?
    From Reuters:


    Turkey, which had drawn close to Syria before the uprising against Assad, became one of the Syrian leader's fiercest critics when he responded violently to pro-democracy protests inspired by popular upheavals elsewhere in the Arab world.

    Ankara has previously floated the possibility of setting up some kind of safe haven or humanitarian corridor inside Syria, which would entail military intervention, but has said it would undertake no such action without U.N. Security Council approval.

    Turkey said it had lost contact with one of its military aircraft off its south-eastern coast, and a television station said it had crashed in Syrian territorial waters.

    CNN Turk television said Turkey was in contact with the Syrian authorities to get permission to conduct a search for the airmen, although there was no immediate official confirmation.

    Turkey's military said a search and rescue operation was under way. It lost radar and radio contact with the plane after it left Erhac airport in the eastern province of Malatya.

    Two crew were aboard the F-4 jet, Turkish state news agency Anatolia said, citing Malatya governor Ulvi Saran.

    Hurriyet daily newspaper reported that the plane had gone down in international waters and that the two airmen had been found alive and well by Turkish forces.
    Be on the lookout for the official Turkish response: it may not happy. Especially if this is merely the latest variation on a very old false flag theme, or merely media manipulation seeking to inflame tensions and incite a Syrian invasion.


    And for those wondering, yes, the F-4 still exists, and more shockingly, it still flies.



    Syria Shoots Down NATO-Member Turkey's Military F-4 Jet | ZeroHedge
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    Senior Member AirborneSapper7's Avatar
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    Sunday, June 24, 2012

    Gulf of Tonkin Redux?



    Stephen Lendman, Contributor

    Lyndon Johnson wanted war on Vietnam and got it.

    The August 1964 false flag Gulf of Tonkin incident initiated full-scale conflict after Congress passed the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution.

    War was authorized without declaring it.

    It's an American tradition. Big lies launch wars. Manufactured pretexts initiate them. Mass killing and destruction follow.

    One nation after another is ravaged. Syria's next, then Iran, followed by other states on Washington's hit list.

    On June 22, Turkey provocatively flew two warplanes at low altitude over Syrian airspace. It wanted a response and got it.

    On June 23, Syria's SANA state media headlined "Military Spokesman: Anti-Air Defenses Intercepted a Target That Violated Syrian Airspace Over Territorial Waters, Shot It Down West of Lattakia," saying:

    At 11:40 AM on 22/6/2012, an unidentified aerial target violated Syrian airspace, coming from the west at a very low altitude and at high speed over territorial waters, so the Syrian anti-air defenses counteracted with anti-aircraft artillery, hitting it directly as it was 1 kilometer away from land, causing it to crash into Syrian territorial waters west of Om al-Tuyour village in Lattakia province, 10 kilometers from the beach.

    Syria's military spokesman also said naval forces from both countries were "searching for the two missing pilots."

    Some media sources said both crew members were rescued. Others said they're still missing.

    On June 23, Turkey's Today's Zaman headlined "Turkey says Syria down(ed) its air force jet," saying:

    The incident will "likely....worsen already strained relations between" both countries.

    After a two-hour security meeting, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan blamed Syrian forces for downing its aircraft.

    An official statement said:
    Following the evaluation of data provided by our related institutions and thefindings of the joint search and rescue efforts with Syria, it is understood that our plane was downed by Syria.

    Turkey "will determinedly take necessary steps" in response. No further details were given.

    At the time of its report, Today's Zaman said both crew members were missing. It added that Ankara wouldn't "tolerate any action that it deemed violating its security."

    Turkish TV reports said two military aircraft were on a reconnaissance mission.

    In fact, Ankara acted provocatively. Perhaps it was at the behest of Washington. Turkey is a NATO member. A previous article explained it can invoke NATO Charter Articles 4 or 5.

    Article 4 calls for members to "consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence, or security of any" is threatened.

    Article 5 considers an armed attack (real or otherwise) against one or more members, an attack against all, and calls for collective self-defense.

    On June 23, Reuters headlined "Turkey warns it would respond decisively to Syria downing it aircraft," saying:

    Erdogan's "initial comments and subsequent statement (were) measured in tone. He said Turkish and Syrian forces were working together to search for the two missing crew of the aircraft."

    Turkish media also said Syria apologized for the incident.

    Turkish state television interviewed witnesses on the country's Mediterranean coast, near the Syrian border, who said they saw two low-flying fighter jets pass overhead in the morning in the direction of Syrian waters but only one return.

    Syrian Foreign Ministry spokesman Jihad Makdissi said:

    "There was no aggression." Damascus confirmed "an unidentified target flying at very low range when it violated Syrian airspace." He added that both sides were searching for missing crew members.

    The New York Times said an official Turkish statement hadn't "yet concluded that the Syrian action was provocative, and it acknowledged that Syrian rescue teams were cooperating in trying to locate the aircraft and crew."

    But the statement also left open the possibility that Turkey, a NATO member, would respond militarily, an outcome that could further complicate and widen the Syrian conflict.

    Washington has longstanding regime change plans. In early 2011, it orchestrated Western-generated violence.

    It wants Assad replaced by a subservient puppet leader. If events on the ground don't succeed, expect war to follow.

    The Obama and Erdogan administrations may have staged Friday's incident. Whether it's a pretext for full-scale intervention remains to be seen.

    Events on the ground keep escalating dangerously. Anything may erupt anytime. Provocations are easy to stage.

    Friday's incident may indeed become a casus belli. If not, perhaps something greater is planned to give Obama another war he wants. What better way to silence his Republican critics who call him soft on Assad.

    On June 22, Foreign Policy's associate editor Uri Friedman headlined "How would NATO respond to Syria shooting down a Turkish plane?" saying:

    Could this incident -- or an incident like it -- trigger more aggressive actionagainst Syria by the international community? After all, Turkey is a member of NATO....

    Its Charter affirms its all-for-one-and-one-for-all policy. Attacking one member is considered acting against all 28. Collective self-defense is called for.

    On September 12, 2001, NATO invoked Article V for the first time. Will Syria be number two? If Turkey claims Damascus acted aggressively, will war follow?

    "It is not an entirely unreasonable" possibility, said Friedman.

    In April, Erdogan suggested he might invoke Article V. Whether he plans it now remains to be seen.

    According to former UN Permanent Representative to NATO Kurt Volker, Article V gives NATO countries a chance to consult with one another on possible responses. It doesn't automatically suggest a military one.

    A response could be anything from a statement reiterating the inviolability of security guarantees to members coordinating activities so that they can respond to further attacks on Turkish interests.

    Volker doesn't think Friday's incident justifies war. At the same time, the ball advanced closer to initiating it without Security Council authorization.

    One way would be by creating Syrian "safe zones," providing greater opposition support, and conducting air strikes against strategic military sites.

    "I do get the feeling," he added, "that the patience of the international community is growing thinner."

    "I think we may be approaching a point at which this kind of coalition intervention is more thinkable than it was a couple of months ago."

    Atlantic Council managing editor James Joyner also doesn't believe Friday's incident justifies war.

    "It would be one thing if Syria sent ground troops into Turkey and started shooting," he said. In contrast:

    Shooting down a plane that might have been surveilling Syrian air space is just a different animal than that.
    This is more of a harsh words and sanctions kind of thing, and frankly there's not much more of that that we can do in terms of Syria.

    On June 23, UK government controlled BBC headlined "Turkish warplane downed by Syria 'may have crossed border,' " saying:

    Turkish President Abdullah Gul said its aircraft may have violated Syrian airspace. Doing so isn't unusual for short distances at high speed, he added.

    "It is routine for jet fighters to sometimes fly in and out over (other) borders....when you consider their speed over the sea," he claimed.

    "These are not ill-intentioned things but happen beyond control due to the jets' speed."

    Unexplained was that it's one thing for peaceful neighbors occasionally to violate each other's airspace without authorization.

    No harm, no foul.

    It's quite another given months of intense violence in Syria and Turkey's direct role.

    Moreover, violating another country's airspace by trying to avoid its defensive capabilities at low altitude shows clear hostile intent.

    Damascus has every right to consider these type actions aggressive and threatening. Turkey would react the same way. So would Washington, key NATO partners and Israel.

    A virtual state of war exists in Syria short of officially declaring it. These type incidents can easily be used as pretexts for full-blown conflict. It remains to be seen if Washington has that in mind.


    Stephen Lendman lives in Chicago and can be reached at lendmanstephen@sbcglobal.net. His new book is titled How Wall Street Fleeces America: Privatized Banking, Government Collusion and Class War

    Also visit his blog site at sjlendman.blogspot.com and listen to cutting-edge discussions with distinguished guests on the Progressive Radio News Hour on the Progressive Radio Network Thursdays at 10AM US Central time and Saturdays and Sundays at noon. All programs are archived for easy listening.

    Progressive Radio News Hour | Progressive Radio Network


    Activist Post: Gulf of Tonkin Redux?
    Last edited by AirborneSapper7; 06-24-2012 at 11:08 AM.
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