Thread: Fact-checking recent claims about climate change

Fact-checking recent claims about climate change

By Amy Sherman
Published on Thursday, May 29th, 2014 at 5:37 p.m.

Related rulings:

Surface temperatures on Earth "have stabilized."

Marco Rubio, Tuesday, May 20th, 2014.
Ruling: Mostly False | Details

Cap and trade legislation "was originally a Republican idea."

Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Tuesday, May 13th, 2014.
Ruling: Mostly True | Details

"Virtually no Republican" in Washington accepts climate change science.

Jerry Brown, Sunday, May 18th, 2014.
Ruling: Mostly True | Details

Human activity is not "causing these dramatic changes to our climate."

Marco Rubio, Sunday, May 11th, 2014.
Ruling: False | Details

Americans "bought into climate change" in 2004-06, but then most "began wandering away from this issue."

Joe Scarborough, Monday, May 12th, 2014.
Ruling: Half-True | Details

The National Science Foundation awarded $700,000 to fund a climate change musical.

Lamar Smith, Wednesday, March 26th, 2014.
Ruling: True | Details

Earth "has not warmed for the last 17 years."

Patrick Moore, Tuesday, March 11th, 2014.
Ruling: Mostly False | Details

In a poll, "53 percent of young Republican voters . . . under age 35 said that they would describe a climate [change] denier as 'ignorant,' 'out of touch' or 'crazy.'"

Sheldon Whitehouse, Wednesday, November 13th, 2013.
Ruling: Mostly True | Details

Sen. Marco Rubio "refuses to accept the basic science" on climate change and is "a climate change denier."

Organizing for Action, Friday, August 9th, 2013.
Ruling: Mostly True | Details

In South Florida, "we've had nine inches of sea-level rise since the 1920s."

Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Friday, June 28th, 2013.
Ruling: True | Details

"This president spends 30 times as much money on global warming research as he does on weather forecasting and warning."

Jim Bridenstine, Tuesday, June 11th, 2013.
Ruling: Mostly False | Details



Flooding in South Florida is becoming more routine. (Miami Herald file photo)


In May, the White House released the National Climate Assessment, a report written by a committee of 60 scientists that assessed risks from man-made climate change including rising seas, extreme heat and dropping water supplies.

Separately, two science papers released in May reported that the global sea level will rise at least 10 feet, accelerating to a dangerous pace after the next century.

The reports sparked some much-publicized comments by politicians and pundits, making climate change a hot issue in elections this fall in some states.

Here’s a summary of some of our recent fact-checks on climate change. We also fact-checked many claims before the recent flurry of media coverage sparked by the reports.

Sen. Marco Rubio
We have fact-checked a few climate change claims by or about Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla. The National Climate Assessment named Miami as one of the most vulnerable cities.

A day before the release of the scientific papers, Rubio told ABC’s Jonathan Karl on This Week on May 11, "I do not believe that human activity is causing these dramatic changes to our climate the way these scientists are portraying it."

An overwhelming majority of scientists agree that humans, by burning fossil fuels, contribute directly to global warming. A May 2013 report analyzing all scientific papers that address the causes of climate change showed 97.1 percentof findings took a position that there’s been a negative human impact on the atmosphere. We rated Rubio’s claim False.

In a May 20 interview on Fox News, Rubio said that "surface temperatures in the earth have stabilized." He has a point that over roughly the past decade and a half, global surface temperatures have "paused," particularly compared to their rapid rise in previous decades. But scientists we interviewed agreed that the use of the word "stabilized" represents an unjustified leap from the data, since "stabilized" suggests that we have gotten through the worst of climate change.

At the very least, the uncertainty inherent in climate forecasting makes such a claim of "stabilization" premature.

More likely, the evidence suggests that the "pause" in global surface temperatures is temporary, with temperatures poised to rise once the oceans start releasing more heat, such as during an El Nino event. It’s not clear when temperatures will rise again, but few scientists doubt that temperatures will rise again at some point. We rate Rubio’s claim Mostly False.

Organizing For Action, a group that backs President Barack Obama, had this to say about Rubio in 2013: "It’s time everyone in Florida knows: Sen. Rubio is a climate change denier."

In 2010, Rubio told the Tampa Tribune, "I don’t think there’s the scientific evidence to justify it." On four separate occasions in 2013 Rubio expressed opposition to climate change policies while speaking more cautiously about the science that proves climate change is happening. We rated that Mostly True.

Polling on climate change

We have fact-checked a few claims that relate to how Americans feel about climate change.

Joe Scarborough, host of MSNBC’s Morning Joe, said Rubio might be on relatively safe ground with the public.

"From 2004, 2005, 2006, Americans were bought in to the concept of climate change and that we need to move aggressively on it," Scarborough said.

But since then, the public shifted, he said.

"Check the polling: Most Americans began wandering away from this issue," Scarborough said.

Polls consistently showed dips through 2010; however, support for action on climate change has inched back in recent years. While the recent gains remain below the 2004 levels, the overall drop isn't as dramatic as Scarborough makes it sound. We rated this claim Half True.

U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I., has made dozens of speeches on climate change and PolitiFact Rhode Islandhas fact-checked a handful of them.

"Fifty three percent of young Republican voters -- Republican voters under age 35 -- said that they would describe a climate [change] denier as "ignorant,’ ‘out of touch’ or ‘crazy,’" Whitehouse said in a November 2013 speech. He cited the number accurately.

But the findings come from just one poll, commissioned by a conservation group. And the question he referenced focused only on the most extreme position of climate change
"deniers." We rated this claim Mostly True.

California wildfires, a climate change musical and other fact-checks

On ABC’s This Week, Gov. Jerry Brown, a Democrat, cited scientific research that links the increased number of fires to the state’s changing climate.

"It is true that there's virtually no Republican who accepts the science that virtually is unanimous. I mean there is no scientific question. There’s just political denial for various reasons, best known to those people who are in denial," he said May 18.

When it comes to on-the-record comments of members of Congress, Brown’s characterization is about right. We found at least eight Republicans in Congress who publicly voiced support for the scientific consensus and many more conservative legislators who deny either a human link to the changing climate, or the fact that the climate is changing altogether. We rated Brown’s claim Mostly True.

U.S. Rep. Lamar Smith, R-Texas, listed six National Science Foundation grants as questionable during a congressional hearing in March including one for a "climate change musical that was prepared for Broadway but I’m not sure ever was actually produced, $700,000." In 2010, the NSF awarded nearly that much to a Brooklyn-based theater company to develop "an innovative, out-of-the-box approach to exposing U.S. citizens to science," according to an NSF spokeswoman.

PolitiFact Texasrated that statement True. (The play ran in New York after our fact-check -- here’s a round-up of reviews.)

We have fact-checked several other claims related to climate change including about sea level rise in South Florida, fishing in Wisconsin, the earth’s temperatures, and spending on climate change research. For a more complete list, see all of our fact-checks on the environment.

Spot a claim or attack about climate change worthy of a fact-check? Contact us at truthometer@politifact.com or tweet us #PolitiFactThis

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-me...limate-change/

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Miami's rising sea level is an enormous problem
Science Recorder
These rising temperatures create significant changes in weather patterns ... storms, loss of natural habitats, species extinctions and rising sea levels...

This Is What Climate Change Is About to Do to Florida and New York

By Tom McKay 4 hours ago

The news: Climate change might be hitting major metropolitan areas harder and sooner than you think. Two new reports show that Florida and New York are expected to have serious problems within the next few decades and may look totally different by the end of the century.

Florida: University of Miami professor and climate change expert Harold R. Wanless warnsthat ongoing construction in south Florida might be occurring in areas that will eventually be taken over by the ocean. NOAA's 2012 National Climate Assessment projects a rise of 4.1-6.6 feet in sea levels (1-2m) by 2100, reaching 2 feet by 2050 and 3 feet by 2075.

This kind of sea-level rise would render nearly all of the world's barrier islands uninhabitable and flood deltas where millions of people live. In Florida, stretches of prime tourist beaches will simply be swept away. What's more, Wanless writes, the current scientific understanding of rising seas indicates that ocean levels will actually rise in quick pulses rather than a slow-but-steady creep, making coastal flooding-preparations much mroe difficult.

These maps show projected sea levels over the next 84 years. Entire islands will be more or less destroyed.




None of these projections are good news. Key Biscayne, with a population of 12,334, will disappear and wash away millions of dollars in real estate value. The rest of the coast will likely face similar problems.



Wanless worries that Florida will not be adequately prepared for disaster. He writes that "for each day action is put off, it becomes harder and more expensive to make the inevitable changes required. Without planning, there will come a point where society will collapse into chaos."

New York: Future 100-year flood zones for New York City are expected to be severe. By 2050, nearly a quarter of the city could be flooded during a disastrous storm, with 114,000 buildings, 800,000 residents and 97% of the city's power-generating capabilities compromised.

A report issued in 2013 by the New York City Panel on Climate Change said that by the 2020s, annual temperatures for NYC will rise by two to three degrees on average, and the number of summer heat waves could increase from two to three or four. In 2050, temperatures will rise an average of 4-6.5 degrees, and the number of days over 90 may double. Water levels at the southern Manhattan Battery will rise 11-24 inches, with 31 inches less likely but possible. Eventually, large stretches of riverside and oceanfront New York property may need to be abandoned or retrofitted to even have a chance of withstanding the huge flooding.

If this doesn't sound like a pretty future, that's because it's not.
Major changes to life on the coastline is just decades away, and even well-prepared locales like New York could still take major damage. Florida is way behind. And federal action is still remote, with an obstinate Congress still doing everything it can to block climate change-related legislation or even preparation.

http://www.policymic.com/articles/90...a-and-new-york

HALF OF GREENLAND'S WARMING TIED TO MAN MADE CAUSES


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New Institute Will Help Connecticut Communities Prepare for Rising Sea Levels
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Rising sea level to affect 13.6M Filipinos in coastal areas
Manila Bulletin
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