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  1. #1
    Senior Member JohnDoe2's Avatar
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    New York set to be big loser as sea levels rise

    8 April 2011 Last updated at 08:00 ET

    New York set to be big loser as sea levels rise

    By Richard Black
    Environment correspondent, BBC News, Vienna

    Places like New York are projected to experience an above average sea level increase.

    New York is a major loser and Reykjavik a winner from new forecasts of sea level rise in different regions.

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said in 2007 that sea levels would rise at least 28cm (1ft) by the year 2100.

    But this is a global average; and now a Dutch team has made what appears to be the first attempt to model all the factors leading to regional variations.

    Other researchers say the IPCC's figure is likely to be a huge under-estimate.

    Whatever the global figure turns out to be, there will be regional differences.

    Ocean currents and differences in the temperature and salinity of seawater are among the factors that mean sea level currently varies by up a metre across the oceans - this does not include short-term changes due to tides or winds.

    So if currents change with global warming, which is expected - and if regions such as the Arctic Ocean become less saline as ice sheets discharge their contents into the sea - the regional patterns of peaks and troughs will also change.

    "Everybody will still have the impact, and in many places they will get the average rise," said Roderik van der Wal from the University of Utrecht, one of the team presenting their regional projections at the European Geosciences Union (EGU) meeting in Vienna.

    "But places like New York are going to have a larger contribution than the average - 20% more in this case - and Reykjavik will be better off."

    Of the 13 regions where the team makes specific projections, New York sees the biggest increase from the global average, although Vancouver, Tasmania and The Maldives are also forecast to see above-average impacts.

    Gravity trap

    One peculiarity of the projections is that areas closer to melting ice sheets will experience a smaller sea level rise than those further away.

    Continue reading the main story
    Sea level rise is not set to be consistent around the globe

    Battling against the rising tide

    This is because ice sheets such as those on Greenland or Antarctica gravitationally attract the water.

    This pulls the water towards the coast, effectively making it pile up to an extent that can be measured in centimetres.

    If the ice begins to melt, it raises the average sea level simply by entering the sea; but the gravitational pull is now smaller, so locally the sea level may go down.

    "So if the Greenland sheet melts more, that's better for New York; but if Antarctica melts, that's worse for New York - and it's equally true for northwestern Europe," Professor van der Wal told BBC News.

    The effects are particularly pronounced for Reykjavik, the closest capital to Greenland, which is projected to receive less than half the global average sea level rise.

    Ice sheet question

    Roderik van der Wal is one of scientists working on the sea level projections that will be included in the next IPCC assessment, due out in 2013-4.

    Before then, other scientists are likely to have completed more regional models that can be put into this mix

    "We're right at the beginning of making regional projections, and at this point there is still a lot of uncertainty," commented Stefan Rahmstorf, a sea level specialist from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.

    "But it is clear that some parts of the world will feel sea level rise much more quickly than other parts; and an additional factor is land movements.

    "In some places such as a lot of the Scandinavian coastline, the land is rising so fast that they will not have any problem with sea level rise in the near future, whereas in other places the land is subsiding - that includes some of the world's big delta cities."

    Just before the last IPCC report came out in 2007, Professor Rahmstorf published research showing that sea levels had been rising faster that climate models predicted.

    Since then, he and others, using various techniques, have concluded that somewhere between half a metre and two metres is likely by the end of the century.

    He came to the EGU with a further analysis putting the likely range at 0.75-1.9m - the range reflecting uncertainties in how ice sheets may melt, and in how society may or may not respond to the findings of climate scientists by controlling greenhouse gas emissions.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-13011073
    Last edited by JohnDoe2; 12-12-2013 at 07:37 PM.
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  2. #2
    Senior Member roundabout's Avatar
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  3. #3
    Senior Member PaulRevere9's Avatar
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    Just build

    Just build a couple pumping stations and pipe the water to the South Pole in the Center of Antarctica...lol

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    Senior Member patbrunz's Avatar
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    Forecasting Expert Calls for End to Government-Funded Research on Global Warming

    PRWEB.COM Newswire Washington, DC (Vocus/PRWEB)
    April 01, 2011

    In testimony yesterday before the Subcommittee on Energy and Environment Committee on Science, Space and Technology, forecasting expert J. Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania called on Congress to cease funding global warming research, programs, and advocacy organizations.

    Referring to an analysis he conducted with Kesten C. Green of the University of South Australia and Willie Soon of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Armstrong told the subcommittee, “We approach the issue of alarm over dangerous manmade global warming as a problem of forecasting temperatures over the long term. The global warming alarm is not based on what has happened, but on what will happen. In other words, it is a forecasting problem. And it is a very complex problem.â€
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    Senior Member JohnDoe2's Avatar
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    Sea Level Summit: 'San Mateo County Most Vulnerable to Sea Level ...
    Patch.comExperts say the sea level in San Mateo County is indeed rising and that it's not as important to determine when, but rather how the region can protect itself.

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    NBC Bay AreaThe site of San Francisco International Airport is one of several places in the Bay Area in jeopardy of flooding ... eventually. Scientists say the runways at SFO ...
    Study: U.S. wetland loss unsustainable
    The Japan Times... of freshwater and saltwater wetlands to fierce storms, sea-level rise and booming development along the coasts, according to a newly released federal study.
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    Senior Member JohnDoe2's Avatar
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    'King tides' may provide glimpse of future
    HeraldNetTides are forecast to be up to 12 feet above mean sea level or higher through much of this month and into January. Those highs will be balanced by minus tides ...
    Local US leaders tell Washington to 'get out of the way' on climate ...
    Montreal GazetteLocal governments have long acted as first responders in emergencies and now are working to plan for rising sea levels, floods, hurricanes and other extreme ...
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    Senior Member JohnDoe2's Avatar
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    What the past tells us about modern sea-level rise
    Phys.OrgResearchers from the University of Southampton and the Australian National University report that sea-level rise since the industrial revolution has been fast by ...

    Villagers struggle to save land as islands shrink in Sundarban

    FirstpostThen there is the effect of sea level rise. Due to all these factors the Sundarbans delta is still in its formation stage. So we have to leave it to nature on how it will ...
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    Senior Member JohnDoe2's Avatar
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    Delmarva animal among most threatened by sea-level rise, group says
    Delmarva NowCHURCH CREEK — Sea-level rise threatens hundreds of species of animals across the U.S. — few more so than the Delmarva Peninsula fox squirrel, ...
    Panel warns of big risks from rising sea level
    Half Moon Bay ReviewSan Francisco International Airport, nearly all of Foster City and the headquarters of several Fortune-500 tech companies could all be imperiled due to rising sea ...
    Change takes shape
    Fiji TimesRising sea level, unpredictable weather and storm surges has eaten away the coastline, threatening nearby homes. This week The Fiji Times visited villages in ...
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    Senior Member JohnDoe2's Avatar
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    RELATED

    Rising sea level threatens Norfolk

    USA TODAY
    Rising sea level is making Norfolk, Va. deal with higher tides that flood streets and more damage from storm surges . . .

    By H. Darr Beiser, USA TODAY.


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