Thread: North Carolina Sea Level Rise Accelerating, Researchers Report

North Carolina SeaLevel Rise Accelerating, Researchers Report

Posted: 11/08/2012 5:19 pm EST Updated: 11/08/2012 5:21 pm EST


A striking image of Verrazano Bridge in Brooklyn as Hurricane Sandy approaches on Oct. 29, 2012.

By Douglas Main, OurAmazingPlanet Staff Writer:

CHARLOTTE, N.C. — This summer the North Carolina Senate passed a bill banning researchers from reporting predicted increases in the rate of sea level rise. But the ocean, unbound by legislation, is rising anyway — and in North Carolina this rise is accelerating, researchers reported here yesterday (Nov. 6) at the annual meeting of the Geological Society of America.

On the coast of North Carolina and at other so-called "hotspots" along the U.S. East Coast, sea levels are rising about three times more quickly on average than they are globally, researchers reported during a session devoted to sea level rise.

That's the fastest rise in the world.

"What we're seeing here is unique," said Asbury Sallenger, an oceanographer at the U.S. Geological Survey in St. Petersburg, Fla.

The accelerating rise
And this rise is accelerating, said Tal Ezer, a researcher at Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Va.

His colleague, Larry Atkinson, said computer models suggest that if this acceleration continues at the same pace, the rise along the East Coast — from North Carolina to Massachusetts — could be 5.3 feet (1.6 meters) by 2100.

Sea levels on this stretch of land have climbed as much as 1.5 inches (3.7 centimeters) per decade since 1980, while globally they've risen up to 0.4 inches (1.0 cm) per decade, according to a study by Sallenger published in June.

Why is the rise accelerating? Researchers said it's due in part to the sinking of land in the mid-Atlantic, a process called subsidence. Also, warming oceans have decreased the flow rate of the Gulf Stream, a current that ferries warm water from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico northeast across the Atlantic. With a less intense Gulf Stream, water is backed up toward the shore, causing sea level rise.

Differences in coastal geography, temperature and salinity (salt content) cause different rates of rise along the East Coast, Atkinson said.

Sea levels worldwide are rising due to melting of glaciers in the Arctic and Antarctic, as well as expansion of water caused by heating, researchers said.

[8 Ways Global Warming Is Already Changing the World]

All too vulnerable

Although the original bill by the North Carolina Senate was rejected by the state House of Representatives in June following international outcry, a compromise was reached that bans state agencies from making plans or laws based on exponential extrapolations of sea level rise for the next three to four years, according to local news reports.

North Carolina lawmakers were the butt of jokes at this session on sea level rise, but underlying the humor was a sense of anxiety, even desperation.

One session titled "Does acceleration matter?" concluded that yes, of course it does, but current efforts to deal with the problem are completely insufficient.

Robert Young, a scientist at Western Carolina University, said that by developing low-lying coastal areas, we are all too vulnerable to storms at current sea levels, as was made clear last week in the New York area by the devastation wrought by Hurricane Sandy.

"We cannot expect as a society to respond to accelerating sea level rise if we can't even respond to linear sea level rise and storms," he said. "Every single storm is an opportunity to take a step back from the coast. Instead, coastal development continues."

Young cited the example of Dauphin Island, Ala., which has been inundated by storms eight times in 26 years. Each time, he said, the federal government has stepped in and paid to rebuild the island's infrastructure. "That's crazy," Young said.

Some uncertainty
There is some uncertainty and disagreement between scientists about the particulars of the accelerating sea level rise. One of the biggest questions is how long this acceleration might last. Sallenger's calculations suggest it could continue for about a century, while others are less certain.

But there is no question that sea levels are rising and that this rise has significant impacts. An internal study by the Hunting Ingalls shipyard in Newport News, Va., the sole builder of nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, found that squalls capable of bringing threatening storm surges near its facility have become more common. These storms once occurred every 80 years; now they are likely to happen every two years, Atkinson said.

Sea levels are measured by tidal gauges are various points along the East Coast. One gauge at Sandy Hook, N.J., was reporting a 0.15 inch (3.9 mm) rise per year, according to the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration.

But it won't be collecting any more data, said John Boon, a researcher at the Virginia Institute of Marine Science. It was destroyed by Hurricane Sandy.

Reach Douglas Main at dmain@techmedianetwork.com.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/08/north-carolina-sea-level-_n_2095100.html

With a less intense Gulf Stream, water is backed up toward the shore, causing sea level rise.

All kinds of things affect the Gulf Stream, like this for instance.

BP Oil Spill Stalls Gulf Loop Current

Global Consequences if Current Fails to Reorganize

BP Oil Spill Stalls Gulf Loop Current Update #1, 05-August-2010
YOWUSA.COM, 01-August-10

Updated 02-August-2010

Marshall Masters


Oceanographic satellite data now shows that the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico has stalled as a consequence of the BP oil spill disaster. This according to Dr. Gianluigi Zangari, an Italian theoretical physicist, and major complex and chaotic systems analyst at the Frascati National Laboratories in Italy.

He further notes that the effects of this stall have also begun to spread to the Gulf Stream. This is because the Loop Current is a crucial element of the Gulf Stream itself and why it is commonly referred to as the “main engine” of the Stream.

The concern now, is whether or not natural processes can re-establish the stalled Loop Current. If not, we could begin to see global crop failures as early as 2011.
An Open System in Trouble

The Loop Current is a clockwise flow that extends northward into the Gulf of Mexico and joins the Yucatan Current and the Florida Current to the Gulf Stream.

Although at first glance the Loop Current appears confined within the Gulf, scientists define it as an “element of an extremely complex, open system”: as all other “elements” of the so-called “Earth System”, are not separable from the others.

These various “elements” of the Earth System (i.e., atmosphere, landmasses and so forth) are so strongly correlated to one another that at some point, they become indivisible.

Why is this important to all life on the planet? The Gulf Stream is a strong interlinked component of the Earth's global network of ocean conveyor currents, which drive the planet's weather systems.



For this reason, Zangari's concern is that should the Loop Current fail to restart, dire global consequences may ensue as a result of extreme weather changes and many other critical phenomena. The repercussions of which could trigger widespread droughts, floods, crop failures and subsequent global food shortages.

While pundits are certain to trivialize the ramifications of this event, “the real worry” says Zangari, “is that that there is no historical precedent for the sudden replacement of a natural system, with a dysfunctional man-made system. That is, except for the atomic bomb blasts and contamination as a result of nuclear waste and nuclear plant accidents, such as the April 1986, Chernobyl disaster."



In what is now widely regarded by many as “Oil's Chernobyl,” Americans, and particularly Gulf Coast residents are disheartened by a steady stream of bureaucratically bungled responses, which are now proving to be just as a deadly as the initial event itself.

Perhaps even more so, as this toxic brew of incompetence, greed, corruption, oil, Corexit dispersant and other chemicals has unleashed a man-made disaster in the Gulf, with frightful possibilities for the future.

The Corexit Curse



The use of Corexit as a dispersant was first brought to the public's attention during the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill.

A powerful solvent used as a dispersant for oil slicks, public knowledge about the dispersant and its long-term effects is hampered by the proprietary protections of its manufacturer, Nalco Holding Company, which is associated with British Petroleum (BP) and Exxon.

What is known, is that this petroleum-based formula is regarded as being at least four times more toxic to life, than the oil is disperses by many environmentalists.



Approximately 1.8 to 2 million gallons of Corexit have been spayed in the Gulf of Mexico. This is a critical fact as current satellite data of the Gulf feeds, tell Zangari that the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico has clearly stalled. This due to environmental impacts from a man-made introduction of oil, which were then compounded by other agents (Corexit and so on).

Worse yet, these real-time satellite data feeds offers clear evidence to Zangari that a new artificial system has been generated in the Gulf in a remarkably short period of time. It is this new and unnatural system which has changed the viscosity, temperature and salinity of the Gulf's seawater, thereby causing the Loop Current to stall. A system that has existed for millions of years.

BP Oil Spill Stalls Gulf Loop Current: Global Consequences if Current Fails to Reorganize

National Geographic News

Sea Levels Rising Fast on U.S. East Coast

Not clear whether human-caused global warming is to blame, experts say.

The last house on Holland Island, Maryland, where 360 people lived before tides took over (file picture).
Photograph by Astrid Riecken for the Washington Post/Getty Images

Charles Q. Choi
for National Geographic News
Published June 25, 2012

Sea level rise on the U.S. East Coast has accelerated much faster than in other parts of the world—roughly three to four times the global average, a new study says.

Calling the heavily populated region a sea level rise hot spot, researchers warn that cities such as Boston, New York, Philadelphia, and Baltimore could face a more flood-prone future.

(Also see "New York, Boston 'Directly in Path' of Sea Level Rise.")

Sea levels worldwide are expected to rise as global warming melts ice and causes water to expand. Those levels, though, are expected to vary from place to place, due to factors such as ocean currents, differences in seawater temperature and saltiness, and the Earth's shape.

Now it seems scientists have pinpointed just such a variance.
Analyzing tide-level data from much of North America, U.S. Geological Survey scientists unexpectedly found that sea levels in the 600-mile (1,000-kilometer) stretch of coast from Cape Hatteras (map), North Carolina, to the Boston area climbed by about 2 to 3.8 millimeters a year, on average, between 1950 and 2009.

Global sea level rise averaged about 0.6 to 1 millimeter annually over the same period.

"If you talk with residents of this hot spot area in their 70s or 80s who've lived there all their lives, they'll tell you water is coming higher now in winter storms than it ever did before," said study co-author Peter Howd, an oceanographer contracted with the USGS.

"We're now finally getting to the point where we can measure their observations with our highfalutin scientific instruments."

(Sea sea level rise pictures.)

Flood of Data
At New York City, the team extrapolated, sea levels could rise by 7.8 to 11.4 inches (20 to 29 centimeters) by 2100—in addition to the roughly 3 feet (1 meter) of average sea level rise expected worldwide by then.

For residents of New York and cities up and down the eastern seaboard, those numbers should become a lot more than ink on paper.

"The first thing people will see from this is an increase over the next few decades in the low-level coastal flooding that occurs now with wintertime storms," Howd said.

"Eventually you'll see coastal flooding events three to four times a year instead of once every three to four years."

But it's not just cities that are expected to suffer.

"The northeast coast of the U.S. is flat," said climate modeler Jianjun Yin at the University of Arizona, who did not participate in this research. "Even gradual sea level rise could cause rapid retreat of shoreline and significant loss of wetland habitats."

(Related: "Groundwater Depletion Accelerates Sea-Level Rise.")

Mysteries of East Coast Sea Level Rise
It's still something of a mystery why the U.S. East Coast is bearing the brunt of sea level rise. Maybe, the researchers say, fresh water from Greenland's melting ice is disrupting North Atlantic currents, slowing the Gulf Stream and causing East Coast sea levels to rise.

It's also unclear to what extent humans may be to blame.

"This could be part of a natural cycle maybe 100 to 200 years long. Or not," study ao-author Howd said. "We need more data over years to help build climate models and greater understanding."

The team cautions too that the East Coast may not be alone.

"We're now looking into extending our analysis to see if hot spots in sea level rise show up in other places around the globe," said USGS oceanographer Kara Doran, who co-authored the study, published June 24 by the journal Nature Climate Change.

Nothing to See Here?
The new findings come at a particularly interesting political moment in one of the states in the sea level hot zone.

Concerned over regulations that could result from recent sea level rise forecasts, some North Carolina legislators have drafted a bill requiring that future state sea level forecasts be based on only past patterns.

"Trying to ban the use of the best science for sea level predictions is absurd," said University of Pennsylvania coastal geologist Ben Horton, who wasn't part of the new study.

NASA climate scientist Josh Willis agreed, adding that such efforts "are sort of a case of human nature trying to outwit Mother Nature, and Mother Nature usually wins that battle of wits.

"It's really shortsighted to assume that the next hundred years of sea level rise are going to be like the last hundred years," Willis added. "We're already seeing glaciers and ice sheets melt more quickly, and the ocean absorbing more heat and expanding—things that drive sea level rise."

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2012/06/120625-sea-level-rise-east-coast-us-science-nature-climate-change/

The global warming/make AL Gore rich group are really rolling out the stuff. I have seen a lot more articles on this subject lately I think there are probably several reasons that this is happening. The part about the land sinking is interesting also.

Originally Posted by Newmexican

. . . The part about the land sinking is interesting also.

Check this out.

http://www.alipac.us/f19/nordic-land...-level-267843/

Young cited the example of Dauphin Island, Ala., which has been inundated by storms eight times in 26 years.

Each time, he said, the federal government has stepped in and paid to rebuild the island's infrastructure. "That's crazy," Young said.

How many time should the U.S. tax payers pay for the same area before the people are told to move to higher ground or they are on their own?

Originally Posted by Newmexican

. . . The part about the land sinking is interesting also.

Just found these:

[PDF] Chesapeake Bay Land Subsidence and Sea Level Change
web.vims.edu/GreyLit/VIMS/sramsoe425.pdf
File Format: PDF/Adobe Acrobat - View as HTML
by JD Boon - 2010 - Cited by 2 - Related articles
is increasing as well due to locally high rates of land subsidence in the mid-Atlantic region of the. U.S. east coast combined with global sea level rise.


Variations in Sea Level
www.ngs.noaa.gov/GRD/GPS/Projects/CB/.../sealevel.html
The middle Atlantic region of the U.S. east coast gives a good illustration of this ... The overall global rise of sea level adds to the effect of land subsidence in the ...


Understanding Sea Level Rise in the Mid-Atlantic - New Jersey Sea ...
www.njseagrant.org/jersey...no4/.../understanding-sea-level-rise.html
The mid Atlantic coastlines of New Jersey, Delaware and Maryland have been subsiding twice as much as areas to the north and south during the past 4,000 years ...


Abstract - Geological Society of America Bulletin
gsabulletin.gsapubs.org/content/118/5-6/567.abstract
by JV Browning - 2006 -
Cited by 24 - Related articles
Quantification of the effects of eustasy, subsidence, and sediment supply on Miocene sequences, mid-Atlantic margin of the United States. James V. Browning†1 ...


Reply to Grinsted et al.: Estimating land subsidence in North Carolina
www.pnas.org/content/108/40/E783.full.pdf
by AC Kemp - 2011 - Related articles
Oct 4, 2011 – structions from the US mid-Atlantic coast and systemati- cally overpredicts subsidence rates because of mantle lateral heterogeneity and/or ...


Full Text - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
www.pnas.org/content/108/40/E783.full
by AC Kemp - 2011 - Related articles
Oct 4, 2011 – However, this model does not fit Holocene RSL reconstructions from the US mid-Atlantic coast and systematically overpredicts subsidence ...


Sea level is rising along US Atlantic coast, say environmental ...
www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/12/091210111156.htm
Dec 11, 2009 – Put simply, land is being lost to subsidence as the earth continues to ... spatial variations in land movement, with the mid-Atlantic coastlines of ...


[PDF] Submarine volcanos, 415. 435. Submarine eruptions in mid Atlantic ...
geology.19thcenturyscience.org/.../1850-Lyell-Principles-0809.pdf
File Format: PDF/Adobe Acrobat - Quick View
INDEX. Submarine volcanos, 415. 435. Submarine eruptions in mid Atlantic, 420. Subsidence of land, 442. 446. 451. 458. 477. 484. 486. 489. 496. 668-738, 739 ...


ASK AN EXPERT!: How is sea level rise measured?
dnr.md.gov/mydnr/askanexpert/sealevel.asp
In order to calculate "relative" sea level rise in the Mid-Atlantic region, ... in historic tide gauge levels along with measurements of regional land subsidence.


Quantification of the effects of eustasy, subsidence, and sediment ...
pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70030362
Sequences can be correlated throughout the mid-Atlantic region with Sr-isotopic ... Backstripping quantifies that excess subsidence began in Delaware at ca.

Lots of interesting articles - thanks for posting.

UPDATE

http://www.alipac.us/f19/30-year-n-c...-years-305249/