Thread: Unemployment rates fall in 28 states

Unemployment rates fall in 28 states

Doug Carroll, USA TODAY11:09 a.m. EST November 22, 2013

Just over a third of the states have jobless rates significantly below the national average, the Labor Department says.


(Photo: Mark Lennihan AP)

Unemployment rates fell in 28 states in October while nonfarm payroll employment increased in 34 states, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

Nevada continued to have the highest unemployment rate at 9.3%.
North Dakota maintained its ranking as the state with the lowest, 2.7%.
Its fortunes lifted by a boom in energy production, North Dakota's jobless rate has fallen by half a percentage point from a year ago. It is only 0.1 percentage point higher than the state's historical low in July 2001, according to the BLS.

The national jobless rate last month was 7.3%, up from 7.2% in September.

Friday's report showed 17 states had rates significantly below the U.S. average in October while nine states plus the District of Columbia had measurably higher rates. The district's unemployment rate jumped 0.3 percentage points to 8.9% in October, a month that included the federal government's partial shutdown for 16 days.

Florida led the country with the largest monthly increase in employment, gaining 44,600 jobs. California followed with a gain of 39,800 jobs and North Carolina was third with 22,200.

The states with the most significant decreases in employment over the month were Kentucky, down 12,600; Washington, 8,100; and South Dakota, 2,600.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/...rates/3673397/

Was Jack Welch right? Jobs numbers under fire



Published: Tuesday, 19 Nov 2013 | 12:17 PM ET

Jack Welch may not have been so off the mark after all.
The former General Electric CEO was pilloried back in October 2012 when he suggested that the previous month's unemployment report smelled fishy and perhaps had been manipulated.
(Read more: Welch's tweet and the jobs number conspiracy)

A report Tuesday, though, suggested that the data may well have been manipulated, though it's not as clear—as Welch charged—that political motivations were afoot.
An employee in the Census Bureau, under pressure to make the required amount of interviews to formulate the monthly nonfarm payrolls report, allegedly fabricated interviews that consequently made the unemployment rate slide from 8.1 percent to 7.8 percent, according to the New York Post.
That drop was highly consequential because it was the next-to-last reading on the jobs market before the November presidential election.


Play Video


Census Bureau response to alleged data manipulation

CNBC's Steve Liesman weighs in on a report in the New York Post claiming some bogus unemployment data was entered in a jobs report leading up to President Obama's second-term election.

(Read more: Shutdown slowdown? Job creation soars in October)

Shortly after the numbers came out, the outspoken Welch attacked their veracity in a post on Twitter.
"Unbelievable jobs numbers...these Chicago guys will do anything...can't debate so change numbers," he tweeted then.

Reaction was swift and severe.
Former White House economist Austan Goolsbee tweeted to Welch, "you've lost your mind." Labor Secretary Hilda Solis called the charge "ridiculous." Reactions throughout much of the blogosphere were similar.
To be sure, Welch's accusations weren't especially specific, and the night before the Oct. 5 release he suggested that the data-fudging could pertain more to the labor force participation rate. He declined further comment through a spokeswoman Tuesday.
(Read more: Fake figures may have greased US jobs data: Report)
The Post's revelations, though, were no less shocking, in particular because the writer spoke to the actual Census Bureau employee who essentially admitted the numbers in the Philadelphia region had been manipulated.
"This seems to be completely unprecedented. I've never heard of this," said Alan Tonelson, research fellow at the U.S. Business and Industry Council in Washington. "It needs the most thorough investigation, ASAP."


Play Video


Santelli Exchange: Questions over 2012 election jobs data

The New York Post has an article called "Census "faked" 2012 election jobs report." CNBC's Rick Santelli reflects on what we knew then, and what we know now.

Whether that will happen is unclear, though the Department of Commerce's Inspector General's Office issued a statement to CNBC saying, "We are aware of the media reports and our office is evaluating what actions may be warranted."

For its part, the Census Bureau said it does not believe there has been any "systematic" manipulation of data, stressing its vigorous process of double-checking to make sure the information it provides is correct.
That monitoring process includes re-interviewing respondents, and rechecking the data an employee has submitted, looking for red flags that indicate possible fabrication, such as abnormally short lengths of interviews or higher survey completion rates that are out of sync with normal survey collection productivity levels," the bureau said in a statement. "That is why when we learned of the allegations of fabricated Current Population survey results, we immediately reported them to the Office of the Inspector General."



Should the controversy go full-blown, it could shake the government's data-gathering operations at their foundation.
(Read more: Larry Summers and the never-ending bubble economy)
"The problem is the financial markets are already pretty cynical. If there is any case in which this is proven that the data were not done in a satisfactory, compliant way, then markets are going to have more reason not to believe the figures," said Joe LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank. "When they move in any direction that is counter to expectations, it will be one of those see-I-told-you-so moments."
The jobless count in particular has come under scrutiny in part because the unemployment rate has been declining primarily through a reduction in the labor force.
In the September 2010 count, the participation rate held steady, but there were other startling numbers that quickly generated skepticism.
Total employment for the month soared by 873,000 after being essentially flat the previous three months. Job losers decreased by 468,000, and short-term unemployment fell by 302,000. Finally, those working part-time for economic reasons surged from 8 million to 8.6 million.
"We didn't think the numbers were accurate, but not for the reasons the (Post) article suggested," LaVorgna said.
(Read more: US labor costs point to still-benign inflation)
The controversy likely will feed the fire over how much investors should rely on the data.
In addition to the jobless count, critics often wonder why the government strips out gas and grocery prices when it announces the so-called core Consumer Price Index, and retail sales numbers have long been the target of questioning as well.
Economist Michael Pento said the controversy is a reminder that investors should not judge economic conditions through a single month's numbers.
"You have to look for long-term trends in the data," said Pento, head of Pento Portfolio Strategies. "The (employment-to-population ratio) and labor force participation rate both popped in 2008 and have never recovered. That tells me the labor force is anemic."
—By CNBC's Jeff Cox. Follow him on Twitter

@JeffCoxCNBCcom

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101211044

They lie lie and lie if they don't like the reports they just change the numbers!!!!


Monthly jobs numbers from Census Bureau may have been manipulated since ‘10 - report

Published time: November 19, 2013 22:46 Get short URL

The US Department of Labor building in Washington, DC. (AFP Photo / Brendan Smialowski)



Tags
Corruption, Economy, Employment, USA

An investigation has begun into a report that alleges some numbers of the government’s monthly jobs outlook may have been manipulated since 2010, including the run-up to the 2012 presidential campaign.
According to internal Census Bureau documents given to the New York Post, one Census Bureau employee in the Philadelphia region fudged data that went into the monthly unemployment report in 2010, was caught and the allegations were probed to a degree, though subsequent action is unclear.

The Census Bureau compiles data for the household survey portion that goes into the overall report for the Department of Labor. The other portion of the report is the payroll survey compiled by the Bureau of Labor statistics with assistance from states and input from companies regarding employment each month.
Census Bureau employees like Julius Buckmon - the Philadelphia employee who conducted three times as many household interviews as his colleagues, according to the Post’s anonymous source for the allegations - are required by the Dept. of Labor to achieve a 90 percent success rate on a monthly round of interviews, meaning finding 9 out of 10 households targeted and reporting back their employment status.
Buckmon told the Post in an interview there were never clear rules on how he and his colleagues should treat people they could not reach by phone or who didn’t answer their doors. All the while, the quota demanded they find targets. So he essentially made up survey results, creating people and giving them jobs, which could have lowered the jobless rate.
There are six Census regions from which data is collected for the survey. The Philadelphia and New York regions were falling short, according to the Post. Buckmon says he was instructed to make up data along the way.
“It was a phone conversation - I forget the exact words - but it was, ‘Go ahead and fabricate it’ to make it what it was,” Buckmon said.
The Census Bureau looked into “a handful” of complaints about Buckmon, even though “more than a dozen instances were reported,” according to the internal documents given to the Post.
Census program coordinator Joal Crosby was asked in 2010, “Why was the suspected … possible data falsification on all (underscored) other survey work for which data falsification was suspected not investigated by the region?”
Crosby answered: “Unable to determine why an investigation was not done for CPS,” or the Current Population Survey - the unemployment report’s official name.
The Post report does not reveal what, if any, action came from the review of Buckmon’s falsifications.
The Labor Dept. claims it was never told about the transgressions.
“Yes, absolutely they should have told us,” an agency spokesman said. “It would be normal procedure to notify us if there is a problem with data collection.”
The anonymous source that supplied the internal documents to the Post alleges the practice goes beyond one employee and continues to this day, which includes the 2012 presidential election, when the unemployment rate dropped to a 44-month low just before early November.
But The Atlantic points out if Census was cooking its numbers, the trend during this period would diverge from the accompanying payroll survey, as they usually track together.
“According to both the payroll and household surveys, job growth averaged about 0.1 percent per month from 2010 through the election. The household survey showed slightly faster job growth than the payroll survey in 2012, but slightly slower growth in 2011. Ultimately, if the household survey really was adulterated with fake data, the impact seems to have been too subtle to notice.”
The investigation is in the hands of the Department of Commerce Inspector General, as the agency oversees the Census Bureau.
“The Census Bureau takes allegations of fraud by its employees very seriously,” according to a Commerce statement. “Fabrication of data by an employee is grounds for disciplinary action, including dismissal and possible criminal action.”
Rep. Blake Farenthold (R-TX), who chairs the House panel that oversees Census told Bloomberg, “The allegation that data gathered by the Census Bureau is being manipulated for any reason is extremely serious.”
The Census Bureau for its part has downplayed the allegations. “We have no reason to believe that there was a systematic manipulation of the data described in media reports,” the agency said Tuesday in a statement.

A job seeker (R) meets with a recruiter for the Fremont Unified School District during a job fair at the Alameda County Office of Education on April 24, 2013 in Hayward, California. (AFP Photo / Justin Sullivan)


http://rt.com/usa/census-jobs-report-manipulation-988/


What this administration des really really well is LIE