Thread: Trump plots big TV ad blitz that could change campaign landscape

Trump plots big TV ad blitz that could change campaign landscape

By Howard Kurtz Published December 28, 2015

When Donald Trump and his team were planning his presidential campaign, they drew up a budget of $25 million for television advertising in the third quarter of this year.

They wound up spending zero for the rest of 2015.

That is about to change. Sources in the Trump camp say they will soon launch a major ad blitz that could cost at least $2 million a week, and possibly several times that.

The initial wave of ads will focus on Trump’s vision and his stance on key issues—no bio spots necessary for the celebrity candidate—but that could change if any GOP rivals target him with negative commercials. “If you attack Trump, he will attack you 10 times as hard,” an adviser says. “We will not allow any attack to go unanswered.”

The Trump camp is working with a Florida-based advertising firm, as widely reported, but also with several other media companies, some of which are well-known in the political community, the sources say.

Their advantage, in Iowa, New Hampshire and beyond, is that the bombastic billionaire can just write a check for the TV campaign. Some pundits have expressed skepticism that Trump really wants to dig deeply into his personal fortune, but these sources insist he is ready to do just that—perhaps as much as $100 million for advertising overall. “Our Super PAC,” says the adviser, “is Donald Trump’s bank account.”

The original plan was to saturate the airwaves so that the real estate mogul could define himself before his GOP rivals did it for him. But Trump says he had no need to do that because he generated such saturation coverage, all of it free.

If Trump pours big bucks into an ad campaign—and no budget has been set—he could again confound the prognosticators. While Trump enjoys a 20-point lead in national polls and dominates many state polls, he and Ted Cruz have been trading the lead in Iowa, where a win could give the Texas senator momentum and let some air out of the Trump invincibility balloon. A Gravis poll just before Christmas had Trump and Cruz tied in Iowa at 31 percent.

Journalistic skeptics also question whether Trump is doing what it takes in the ground game and whether his voters, some of them new to politics, will actually show up. The New York Times recently reported that “Mr. Trump has fallen behind in the nuts and bolts of organizing. A loss in Iowa for Mr. Trump, where he has devoted the most resources of his campaign, could imperil his leads in the next two nominating states, New Hampshire and South Carolina, where his get-out-the-vote organizations are even less robust.”

In the early caucus state of Nevada, says the Wall Street Journal, “the Trump campaign has just four aides working out of campaign offices in Las Vegas and Reno. And they are playing catch-up with other campaigns.”

Trump advisers dispute such reports, citing the hiring of 17 paid staffers in Iowa and 15 in New Hampshire.

But let’s assume what once seemed unthinkable for the pundit class, that Trump wins the Republican nomination. The new conventional wisdom is that he’ll get creamed in the general election.

But could the political soothsayers be wrong about this as well?

Trump himself tweeted over the weekend, “The same people that said I wouldn't run, or that I wouldn't lead or do well (1st place and leading by 21%), now say I won't beat Hillary.”

Still, the polls suggest that Trump could have a tough time, especially with Hillary Clinton holding a built-in Electoral College advantage against any Republican challenger.

Trump has a 68 percent unfavorable rating among women, according to last week’s Quinnipiac poll—which is one reason Clinton fired back that his recent comment about her being “schlonged” in 2008 suggests sexism.

In a Q poll out in early December, Trump had an 87 percent unfavorable rating among blacks, and 84 percent of Hispanics had an unfavorable view of him. Such a cataclysmic outcome would push ever higher the percentage of white voters that Trump would need to win.

Back in September, though, a SurveyUSA poll found Trump with 25 percent support among African-Americans. It seems unlikely that Trump would more than double the black vote that George W. Bush won in his 2004 reelection. But anything significantly higher than the 6 percent of blacks that Mitt Romney won against President Obama would be an improvement.

Trump advisers argue that his unconventional candidacy could change the electoral map—particularly his appeal to blue-collar workers who are Democrats and independents. They believe his street-tough persona could put such industrial strongholds as Michigan, Ohio, Illinois and Pennsylvania in play. He takes some moderate positions for a Republicans, such as not touching Medicare and Social Security.

Trump’s say-anything style could certainly create headaches for Clinton, an essentially conventional politician despite her ground-breaking gender. And there are two other sets of numbers to consider.

Trump has a daunting 59 percent unfavorable rating in the most recent Q poll, but Hillary’s unfavorable, at 51 percent, isn’t much better.

And in the latest CNN survey, Clinton beats Trump by only 49 to 47 percent in a hypothetical matchup, within the margin of error. He fares worse in other polls, trailing Hillary by 7 points in Quinnipiac and 11 points in the latest Fox poll.

Still, for a political neophyte running against a former first lady, senator and Cabinet member, those are the kind of deficits that can be made up in a long campaign. A July CNN poll found only 51 percent of Republicans viewing Trump favorably; by this month the figure had risen to 72 percent.

It’s entirely possible that Trump will get shellacked if he wins the Republican nomination. But if the pundits’ awful track record is any indication, all bets could be off.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015...landscape.html

Still, for a political neophyte running against a former first lady, senator and Cabinet member, those are the kind of deficits that can be made up in a long campaign. A July CNN poll found only 51 percent of Republicans viewing Trump favorably; by this month the figure had risen to 72 percent.

This is really good in what is still a very crowded field.

The same will occur for the General Election when there are no more Republican candidates out there trying to throw the race their own way when they have nothing to offer.

Video at source link.
~~~

By Gabby Morrongiello • 12/29/15 10:49 AM

Donald Trump has run a relatively lean campaign operation since he announced his bid for the White House in mid-June. But all that is about to change, the Republican front-runner said Tuesday.

The mostly self-funded billionaire, whose campaign has raised nearly $2 million this election cycle through small-dollar donations, plans to tap into his personal fortune to ensure voters turn out to support him come Feb. 1, when the Iowa caucuses kick off the 2016 nomination season.


Donald J. Trump
✔
@realDonaldTrump

My campaign for president is $35,000,000 under budget, I have spent very little (and am in 1st place).Now I will spend big in Iowa/N.H./S.C.
6:33 AM - 29 Dec 2015

2,089 2,089 Retweets
5,936


As previously reported, the Trump campaign is expected to flood the television airwaves in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina – the three earliest voting states – with ads promoting his message and his positions on several issues central to the 2016 cycle. Those familiar with the forthcoming ad blitz told Fox News Monday that Trump is prepared to spend at least $2 million a week on the effort.

Trump is currently in first place in state-level polls in New Hampshire and South Carolina. In Iowa, the outspoken businessman was recently dethroned by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, a conservative firebrand and Trump's friendliest rival in the GOP field.

Other candidates, whose campaigns and super PACs have budgeted millions towards paid advertisements, have little to show for in the polls – something Trump frequently points out in his stump speeches and media appearances.


Donald J. Trump
✔
@realDonaldTrump

So, I have spent almost nothing on my run for president and am in 1st place. Jeb Bush has spent $59 million & done. Run country my way!
6:39 AM - 29 Dec 2015

2,388 2,388 Retweets
6,241


Trump is slated to arrive in Iowa, where he soon plans to air television ads, Tuesday evening for a campaign rally at 7:30 p.m. ET.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tr...rticle/2579218

Published December 30, 2015Fox News Latino

COUNCIL BLUFFS, IOWA (AP) – Billionaire Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump says he plans to spend at least $2 million a week on television advertising in the first three voting states, a move that would mark a massive departure for a candidate who has so far relied on free media to fuel his insurgent campaign.

Despite Trump's typically ironclad confidence, he told reporters invited aboard his private jet Tuesday he didn't want to take anything for granted.

"I don't think I need to spend anything. And I'm very proud of the fact that I've spent the least and achieved the best result," Trump told reporters before a rally in Council Bluffs, Iowa. "I feel I should spend. And honestly I don't want to take any chances."

Trump, who leads in national Republican preference polls, has seen his lead dissolve in leadoff Iowa, where Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is surging on the backing of the state's robust evangelical conservative voting bloc.

The front-runner has spent nothing on television advertising to date, and just over $300,000 on radio ad time, according to advertising tracker Kantar Media's CMAG — far less than his rivals. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, for example, has spent more than $40 million and trails Trump and several other candidates.

Trump has teased plans to advertise on television in the past, but ad buys have failed to materialize. While Trump has said he's willing to spend whatever it takes to win the Republican nomination, he has proven a frugal campaigner, putting very little of his own money on the line.

While Trump likes to claim he's self-funding his campaign, the vast majority of what he's spent so far has come from donors across the country sending checks or purchasing merchandise from his website.

"I'll be spending a minimum of $2 million a week and perhaps substantially more than that," he told reporters, adding, "If somebody attacks me, I will attack them very much and very hard in terms of ads."

Trump said he had screened the first two ads and says they touch on immigration, trade and national security policy.

When the real estate mogul announced his candidacy in June, he said he planned to spend $35 million by Jan. 1, 2016. Instead, his reliable tendency for combative language has resulted in a steady stream of media coverage, often stemming from comments made during the five GOP debates or during his notoriously meandering speeches at packed rallies.

Trump first hinted at plans to start spending at a rally Monday evening in New Hampshire and tweeted about his plans Tuesday morning.

Trump also said he believes the thousands who attend his rallies, like the more than 3,000 in Council Bluffs, will ultimately turn out to vote for him. Iowa's caucuses begin the 2016 voting on Feb. 1, a little more than a month away. He said he has faith in his Iowa team, including Chuck Laudner, who ran former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum's winning 2012 caucus campaign.

"I actually think all of those people, and maybe even friends of theirs, I really think they are going to come out," Trump said.

However, when Trump began his speech with a shout out to Omaha, Nebraska — just across the river from Council Bluffs — the crowd in the MidAmerica Center roared. Seconds later, when he hailed the Iowans attending, a much smaller round of cheers rang out.

http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/pol...andidate-says/

12/30/15

Jeb Bush cancels TV ad buys, Super PAC buys $19 MILLION

Bush and his allies have already spent $26 million on TV ads