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Immigration Figures at Polls

Race for San Diego House Seat May Be Bellwether on Election Issue
By SARAH LUECK
June 2, 2006; Page A4



SAN DIEGO -- To Brian Bilbray, the "greatest ethics scandal in America" isn't about Washington lobbyists or the bribery conviction of Randy "Duke" Cunningham, formerly this area's unbeatable congressman.

Mr. Bilbray, a former Republican House member seeking Mr. Cunningham's vacant seat, is fighting what he calls the scandal of illegal immigration. He hopes that tough talk on the campaign trail about securing borders and cracking down on employers who hire illegal workers will bring enough supporters to the polls on June 6 to help him defeat a challenge from Democrat Francine Busby. A local school-board member, she takes a softer line on the issue, supporting proposals to allow illegal immigrants to become citizens and create new guest-worker programs.

Voters in this district near the Mexican border are "furious at everyone in Washington for ignoring this problem," Mr. Bilbray says.

Ms. Busby emphasizes the need for changes in ethics rules that would unravel Washington's "pay to play" system. Immigration "is not the only issue, nor is it the most important issue affecting people's lives," she says.

More is at stake in the Bilbray-Busby showdown than one congressional seat. If Ms. Busby wins Tuesday, she would take over what has long been a Republican district. Such a shift could portend a wave of Democratic wins this fall, just as Republicans are fighting to hang on to control of the House and Senate amid dismal approval ratings for President Bush.

The race also is shaping up as an early test for how immigration and scandal could play out this year in the polls, and which issue may get greater traction with voters.

With the San Diego runoff just days away, polls show a close race. SurveyUSA, a nonpartisan market-research firm, reported a dead heat -- 45% for Mr. Bilbray and 45% for Ms. Busby -- in May. Ms. Busby acknowledges an uphill battle in a district where 44% of voters are registered Republicans, and less than 30% are Democrats. Victory, Ms. Busby says, "would take just a tectonic shift."

Mindful of the broader implications, national party organizations are pouring money into the race, largely for negative television ads. One ad sponsored by the National Republican Congressional Committee calls Ms. Busby a "liberal" and says she supports "amnesty" for illegal immigrants. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has launched a campaign to highlight Mr. Bilbray's work as a lobbyist in recent years, and votes he missed as a lawmaker while he went on trips to "hang out with special interests."

In a tacit admission that Mr. Bilbray's immigration position may be more popular in the district, Ms. Busby and her backers are trying to blur the candidates' differences on the issue. He opposes allowing illegal immigrants to become citizens, which he calls "amnesty." Ms. Busby says because the citizenship comes with hurdles, it doesn't amount to amnesty.

Ms. Busby says the barrage of commercials, even negative ones, have boosted her name recognition. On a recent walk outside her campaign headquarters in Encinitas, a coastal, Democratic-leaning enclave north of downtown, she was stopped by several people who asked if she was Francine. "We're pulling for you," said one wetsuit-clad surfer climbing the stairs from the beach.

While Mr. Bilbray enjoys the advantage of running in a strongly Republican district, he faces the danger of his party fracturing along different fault lines. Because he favors abortion rights and has supported gun control, he's fighting an impression among some Republicans that he's too moderate.

His main draw for the conservative base is his credibility as a hard-liner on immigration. He has supported legislation eliminating automatic citizenship for U.S.-born children of illegal immigrants. One of his lobbying clients was the Federation for American Immigration Reform, a group that wants to limit both illegal and legal immigration.

But he still faces a challenge to his right from William Griffith, an independent candidate on Tuesday's ballot, who is running as a "conservative alternative" to Mr. Bilbray. While Mr. Griffith has little chance of winning -- he got just 1% of the vote in the April special election, compared with 15% for Mr. Bilbray -- he may peel off some conservative Republican voters. Mr. Griffith has picked up endorsements from the local Minutemen activist group and the American Independent Party, both of which are pushing for a crackdown on illegal immigration.

And yet, if Mr. Bilbray steers too hard against immigration, he may risk losing moderate Republicans. Earlier this week, Sen. John McCain (R., Ariz.) canceled a visit to San Diego for a Bilbray fund-raiser. Mr. McCain supports a Senate immigration bill that would allow millions of illegal immigrants in the U.S. to eventually become citizens. Mr. Bilbray opposes that measure, and Mr. McCain didn't want to distract from the candidate's campaign message, according to a statement sent to the Bilbray campaign by Mr. McCain's political action committee. Mr. McCain still endorses Mr. Bilbray, the statement said.

On Tuesday night, Mr. Bilbray met with a handful of members of the local chapter of the Republican National Hispanic Assembly and faced some probing questions. Todd Garcia VanBoxtel, vice chairman of the group, said he was concerned that mass deportations of illegal immigrants would create an "uproar" by separating families and disrupting neighborhoods.

In response, Mr. Bilbray sounded a softer tone than he often does on the campaign trail. "You're going to have displacement," he said. But he also predicted the House and Senate dealmakers would find a "moderate, middle ground" in their negotiations, including removing a provision in the House bill that would make illegal immigrants felons. "We're not going to be punitive to immigrants, and we're not going to reward illegal immigrants," he said. An avid surfer, Mr. Bilbray tempered his remarks with tales of traveling to Mexico's beaches and growing up near the "frontera."

Mr. Bilbray seemed to have walked the tightrope just right. Mr. Bilbray "probably didn't have enough votes to get an endorsement when he walked in" to the meeting, Mr. Garcia VanBoxtel later said. But the group ended up supporting the Republican candidate and plans a mailing to 1,000 Hispanic households urging them to vote.

"What impressed us was his affection for travel in Mexico ... and his love of the people... Obviously he didn't tell me necessarily what I wanted to hear, but he had firsthand knowledge of the situation and that won us over," Mr. Garcia VanBoxtel said.

Write to Sarah Lueck at sarah.lueck@wsj.com