Thread: Immigration could creep into CA. Senate race

Published: July 30, 2010
Updated: 9:43 p.m.

Immigration could creep into Senate race

By DENA BUNIS COLUMNIST
THE ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER
dbunis@ocregister.com

Arizona may be the epicenter of the immigration debate but with people from Orange County and California flocking to that state's capital this past week this issue could play a role in this fall's toss-up U.S. Senate election.

As with most developments in this emotional issue, both sides have cards to play in the aftermath of the gutting of Arizona's tough immigration law by a federal judge.

In a strange way although District Court Judge Susan Bolton gave immigrant advocates a victory by saying police would not be required to stop people and ask their status, had she ruled the other way those who want a full measure of immigration reform might have been able to fire up even more voters.

Instead, suggests analyst Claremont McKenna's Jack Pitney, the judge may well have revved up those who strongly back Arizona's law.

"For people supporting the law it's a substantive setback but a political advantage,'' says Pitney. "This way they can frame the issue as an unelected judge thwarting the will of the people.''

If the law had gone into effect, then images of people being stopped, being asked for their papers and even being turned over to federal immigration officials would have led to even more national publicity and more calls for reform.

The last time a court case involving immigration was given credit for impacting electoral politics was in 1994 when Prop 187 was passed by Californians and eventually struck down by the courts.

Prop 187 would have prohibited illegal immigrants from getting public education, health care and other social services.

In the short run, it helped Gov. Pete Wilson get re-elected. But the more lasting aftermath was a decade of Republicans being in the wilderness when it came to getting Latino support at the polls.

The obvious difference between Arizona's SB1070 and Prop 187 is that SB 1070 affects just Arizona. While in 18 states some lawmakers say they want to mimic Arizona's law, that's not likely to happen here.

But in the 16 years since Prop 187, the strength of the Latino vote has grown overall and the Hispanic population has become an electoral factor in more than just the border states.

In the latest Field Poll three-term Democratic incumbent Sen. Barbara Boxer had a 23-point advantage among Latinos.

Boxer came out strongly against the Arizona law and supported the government's lawsuit against it. She supports a comprehensive immigration reform bill, including a path to legalization for the estimated 11 million illegal immigrants living here.

But in 2007 Boxer had some strong reservations about the temporary guest worker program and voted for one of the amendments that helped bring down the bill. She did vote for the final bill.

Boxer's Republican challenger, Carly Fiorina, supports the Arizona law although during the primary campaign she did bemoan the strident rhetoric that she said had characterized the debate.

Fiorina says she would support a bill to better secure the nation's borders and create a temporary worker program. But she isn't willing to talk about what her solution would be to the 11 million illegal immigrants until those two items are resolved.

Neither campaign seems to be inclined to highlight immigration in their campaigns.

Boxer campaign manager Rose Kapolcyznski and her counterpart in the Fiorina campaign, Marty Wilson, do agree on one thing – that jobs and the economy will dominate the race.

"I don't think immigration is an issue we're going to spend a lot of time talking about in the campaign,'' Wilson said.

"It's a fine line that you have to walk on the immigration issue,'' he added. He said it's not true that all Latinos would automatically be against the Arizona law or for a comprehensive bill. Many who have come here legally "don't really appreciate the short-circuiting of our laws.''

In the July Field Poll, while overall voters supported the Arizona law – 49 percent to 45 percent – Latinos opposed it 71 percent to 24 percent.
Kapolcyznski believes the immigration issue could be "be a wash'' this fall.

"Some anti-immigration activists may feel that the judge is wrong to put a stay on some of the provisions and that may make them more determined to get out the vote for people who share their views,'' she said. "Activists looking for immigration reform might think the judge didn't go far enough so that might spur them on.''

Both campaign managers also pointed to surveys that show the bread and butter issues, especially the economy, still top the list of Latino concerns.
But in a race that most polls show is virtually a dead heat between Boxer and Fiorina, if immigration motivates people to vote who otherwise might take a pass on this off-year election, this second-tier issue could figure into the results in November.
We'll be watching.

Contact the writer: (202) 628-6381 or dbunis@ocregister.com

http://www.ocregister.com/articles/immi ... izona.html

I heard today that only 17% of the voters are Latino although not sure that is true. And yet we are bombarded by the media about the 'Latino vote.'