Census: More moving out than moving in

By: DAVE DOWNEY - Staff Writer

NORTH COUNTY ---- Blame it on the sky-high housing prices. In all but one year of this decade, more people have moved out of San Diego County than have moved in from other parts of the state and nation. And, not surprisingly, say analysts, the trend accelerated during the last three years, with homes never more out of reach of the typical area family.

The total number of fleeing San Diego County residents reached a peak of 42,034 last year, eighth highest among all U.S. counties, according to new Census Bureau statistics. That exodus ---- focusing on the 12 months that ended July 1 ---- came on the coattails of a net domestic migration loss of 37,666 residents the previous year and a loss of 32,140 the year before that.

Still, the population is growing because births and immigrants combined outnumber the folks leaving for greener pastures within the United States.

"A lot of people are moving to Texas from here," said Darius Khoshnevis, owner of the U-Haul on Ninth Avenue in Escondido. "I think it's because of the housing market. They can buy a house there for less than half of what they would pay for one for here."

Texas isn't the only place they're headed, Khoshnevis said. Many are going to Arizona, Nevada and Utah as well, he said.

And droves are bound for points just across the county line.

The major coastal counties of San Diego, Orange and Los Angeles have been posting net domestic migration losses for years, and Riverside County has been capturing a large chunk of the movers. Last year alone, 58,051 more people moved into Riverside County than moved out, accounting for the lion's share of the county's overall population growth of 81,411, the census reported.

That coastal-to-inland movement vaulted Riverside County into fourth place among California's most populous counties, with a population of 2 million.

Fueling Riverside County

"We're fueling a lot of that growth," said Ed Schafer, senior demographer for the San Diego Association of Governments, a regional planning agency. "A lot of the people who are moving to Riverside are working in San Diego County. They are moving to Riverside because of the housing prices. It is just so expensive in San Diego County."

For more than a year, the median price of a single-family home in North San Diego County has hovered above $600,000, a price fewer than one in 10 San Diego County families can afford, according to local real estate officials.

Meanwhile, the ratio of people moving out of San Diego County to those moving in has reached such a feverish pace that truck rental companies are scrambling to keep up.

Jerry Mitchell, who owns the land that a Vista U-Haul business sits on, said, "We will be scrounging for one-way trucks this summer because there just aren't that many people moving in."

When it comes to the other U.S. counties that saw large a domestic migration out last year, Orleans Parish in the Hurricane Katrina-battered New Orleans area was tops with 226,718 people leaving.

Other losers include Los Angeles County, 183,063; Cook County, Ill. (Chicago), 91,693; Kings County, N.Y. (New York City), 53,878; Queens County, N.Y. (New York City), 49,617; St. Bernard Parish, La., 48,928; and Orange County, 46,199.

However, there were stark differences between the California counties and the storm-ravaged regions of the Gulf Coast. Both Louisiana parishes posted total population losses that nearly matched their domestic migration losses. But all three Southern California coastal counties posted overall population gains, census figures show.

In San Diego, Orange and Los Angeles counties, steady international immigration offset half of the loss of residents to other counties and other states. And babies more than made up for the rest.

As a result, San Diego County grew by 4,845 residents, the census stated.

"Our growth is being generated by natural increase," Schafer said. "This is what we have been telling people for a long time was going to happen."

Not in Kansas anymore

San Diego County already grew slower than the nation last decade, and last year's small increase put the county's rate at but a fraction of the nation's. Schafer said the county grew 0.17 percent in 2006, while the nation grew about 1 percent.

Whether that trend continues will depend largely on the housing market, Schafer said.

"I don't think we'll ever have housing costs that look like Kansas," he said. "But you know, if we lost like 25 percent of the value of homes, then the area would be competitive again in terms of housing."

In some ways, the slow growth rate paints a distorted picture of the region, he said, because San Diego's economy is still growing at a steady rate.

"If you really wanted to look at how the region works economically, you'd want to throw in half of Riverside County and a good portion of northern Baja (California)," Schafer said.

The association estimates that 40,000 people travel across the international border daily to jobs in San Diego County, and a 2002 survey found that 30,000 commuters drive south out of Temecula ---- and the numbers are growing by leaps and bounds.

Essentially, he said, southern Riverside County has become an extension of San Diego County's housing stock.

Between 2000 and 2006, San Diego County built 78,000 homes. That did not come close to keeping pace with the area's employment growth of 106,000 jobs, he said.

"Most of the homes that San Diegans are buying have been built outside San Diego," Schafer said.

Contact staff writer Dave Downey at (760) 740-5442 or ddowney@nctimes.com.

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