Immigration law, politics see wave of change in 2 years
Push for SB 1070-style laws wanes; impact on state's economy debated

by Daniel González - Apr. 22, 2012 11:29 PM
The Republic | azcentral.com

Two years ago today, Gov. Jan Brewer signed Senate Bill 1070, considered at the time to be the toughest immigration-enforcement law in the nation.

But much has changed on the immigration front since then: The state's sizable illegal-immigrant population, one of the driving factors behind passage of the law, has shrunk dramatically. The state hasn't passed a single immigration bill since SB 1070, ending the passage of a string of enforcement measures leading up to the law. And the state's large but politically anemic Latino population is showing signs of gaining political muscle.

There have been changes at the national level, as well. The year after SB 1070 passed, more than 20 other states introduced bills that also gave police the power to question and arrest suspected illegal immigrants encountered during police stops, the cornerstone of Arizona's law. Five bills passed. But since then, the rush to pass Arizona-style immigration laws has fizzled. None of the five states that considered similar laws this year has approved them.

On Wednesday, the U.S. Supreme Court will hear oral arguments on Arizona's immigration law, key parts of which were blocked by a federal judge the day before it was to take effect.

The court's decision is expected this summer and will likely affect similar laws in other states.

But even if the Supreme Court reverses the lower courts, it's unclear whether other states will again rush forward to pass similar laws. Illegal immigration is not the same hot-button issue it was when Brewer signed SB 1070 two years ago, in part because illegal immigration from Mexico is down sharply.

What's more, the laws have faced mounting opposition from the powerful business community, in Arizona and other states.

At the same time, the laws have galvanized politically important Latino voters, who studies show strongly oppose enforcement-only measures and look instead for approaches that combine enforcement with programs that would help undocumented immigrants with no criminal records qualify for legal status in the United States if they were to pay a fine.
Numbers down

Arizona's illegal-immigrant population surged before passage of Senate Bill 1070. But the number of illegal immigrants in Arizona has fallen sharply since then. There is debate whether the decrease has been good or bad for the state's economy.

In 2000, according to estimates by the Department of Homeland Security, there were 330,000 illegal immigrants living in Arizona. By 2008, the number had increased to 560,000, according to DHS estimates.

The numbers, however, began to drop in 2009. By 2011, according to the most recent DHS estimates based on 2010 census data, there were 360,000 illegal immigrants in Arizona -- 200,000 fewer than at the high point in 2008.

That is the equivalent of losing a community the size of Gilbert, the seventh-largest in Arizona.

Supporters and opponents of SB 1070 generally agree that the downturn in the state's economy, among the worst of any state in the nation, was the main reason so many illegal immigrants left Arizona.

They also agree immigration-enforcement measures played a role.

SB 1070 is part of a plan aimed at driving illegal immigrants out of the state by making life difficult, a strategy known as attrition through enforcement.

Some provisions of SB 1070 did take effect, including one that makes it a crime to knowingly transport illegal immigrants and one that makes it a crime to impede traffic while stopping to pick up day laborers or soliciting for day-labor work.

There is no comprehensive study of whether authorities across the state are aggressively enforcing those provisions or awaiting the outcome of legal battles over the entire law. But some police agencies, including several in the Valley, say they have made a handful of arrests related to SB 1070.

Since the provisions took effect in July 2010, the Phoenix Police Department, for example, has made three SB 1070-related arrests, said James Holmes, a police spokesman. All three were for unlawfully transporting illegal immigrants. Gilbert has made at least one arrest.

Meanwhile, there is no data on whether the loss of 200,000 illegal immigrants since 2008 hurt or helped the state's economy.

Ira Mehlman, a spokesman for the Federation for American Immigration Reform, a Washington, D.C., organization that advocates for less immigration and more enforcement, believes it has been good for the state.

Illegal immigrants tend to work in low-wage jobs and therefore tend to pay less in taxes but use more public services than legal immigrants and U.S. citizens, he said.

When illegal immigrants leave, the state also saves money by not having to educate their children, many of whom require additional services to help them become proficient in English, Mehlman said.

Data from the Arizona Department of Education shows that the number of students learning English in Arizona fell from 155,000 in 2005 to 100,000 in 2011.

Mehlman said the number of English learners fell because many illegal immigrants and their families left the state and fewer came.

Department of Education officials, however, said the number also fell because many students became proficient in English and therefore no longer required special services.

Judith Gans, program manager for immigration policy at the Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy at the University of Arizona, said it is hard to measure how losing 200,000 people will affect the economy.

She is the author of a 2004 study that concluded that immigrants in Arizona, including legal and illegal immigrants, contributed $940 million more toward public services than they used.

She agreed that the loss of up to 200,000 illegal immigrants saves the state money in social-services costs, especially for those who have U.S. citizen children.

But she said losing so many people hurts the overall economy.

It creates higher home-vacancy rates in immigrant neighborhoods, which lowers rents and hurts landlords and lowers tax payments to the state, she said.

While a drop in student numbers saves money for the state, it hurts local school districts because they receive less money in state education funding, which is based on student enrollment, she said.

Having fewer illegal immigrants helps increase wages for other workers, but that means higher costs and lower profits for businesses, which could put a damper on industries that rely on immigrant labor, she said.

Loui Olivas, a retired business-management professor and assistant vice president at Arizona State University, said immigrants tend to have larger families and therefore spend more money on food, clothing and household goods. He oversees the annual publication of Datos, a report that measures the state's Hispanic market.

He said many businesses in immigrant neighborhoods have closed or struggled because so many illegal immigrants have left. That means less tax revenue.

"There is no question it's a significant impact on our states and also in our ability to collect taxes," Olivas said.
Employer sanctions

Leading up to SB 1070, Arizona adopted a string of immigration-enforcement laws.

Among them was the state's employer-sanctions law, which passed in 2007 and took effect in 2008. That law punishes businesses for failing to use a federal database toelectronically verify whether new employees are authorized to work in the U.S.

Tom Rex, a researcher at ASU's W.P. Carey School of Business, said the employer-sanctions law probably had more effect on the state's undocumented population than SB 1070.

The law essentially blocked illegal immigrants from getting jobs with invented Social Security numbers, a common practice in the past.

The sanctions law, along with the recession, helped initiate the exodus of illegal immigrants from Arizona.

SB 1070 turned out to be the high-water mark for immigration-enforcement laws in Arizona. Not a single immigration law has passed since.

In March 2011, the state Senate voted down five major immigration bills, including measures that would have attempted to block the children of illegal immigrants from receiving automatic citizenship, banned illegal immigrants from attending state universities and made it a crime for illegal immigrants to drive in Arizona.

Some Republicans who had voted in favor of SB 1070 joined with Democrats to vote against them.

This year, state Sen. Steve Smith, R-Maricopa, introduced immigration bills that would have required public schools and hospitals to check the legal status of students and patients. Neither has moved forward.

"I think a lot of the people think we passed the big one, we led the nation on this issue and hopefully this is the fix we have been looking for," Smith said, referring to SB 1070.

Others are afraid of generating more backlash against the state, he said.

Glenn Hamer, president and CEO of the Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said the business community has played a pivotal role in convincing lawmakers that it's up to the federal government now to enact immigration reform.

After the five bills began moving forward last year, Hamer said, "I've never seen the business community come together in such a strong, united way ... saying enough is enough."

Hamer said business leaders again voiced their opposition this year to the immigration bills introduced by Smith.

"We made it very clear that those were unnecessary and we would oppose them as vigorously as we opposed the bills that came up last year," Hamer said.

The state's tourism and convention business is rebounding following the boycotts generated by SB 1070, said Kristen Jarnagin, spokeswoman for the Arizona Lodging and Tourism Association.

A November 2010 study by the liberal Center for American Progress estimated that the boycotts cost the state more than $140 million in lost meeting and convention business.
Politically active

SB 1070 has galvanized Latinos to become more active politically, said Lisa Magaña, a political-science professor at ASU's School of Transborder Studies.

Magaña said Latino voters played a significant role in the ouster of former state Sen. Russell Pearce, R-Mesa, who spearheaded many immigration-enforcement measures, including SB 1070.

Pearce was voted out of office in November 2011 in a recall election.

A grass-roots campaign that targeted Latino voters also played a role in the November election of Phoenix City Councilman Daniel Valenzuela, a Glendale firefighter and political newcomer, Magaña said. Voter turnout among Latinos in his district increased 480 percent from the previous election.

Valenzuela said he agreed that frustration over SB 1070 helped him get elected. "There were many factors, but that was one of the motivating factors," he said.

Meanwhile, Magaña said SB 1070 also has sparked an increase in the number of immigrants becoming naturalized so that they can vote.

Data from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services shows that naturalizations among Mexicans in Arizona are outpacing those from other countries. They are up 53 percent in 2011 compared with 23 percent for people from all countries.

Nationwide, naturalizations for Mexicans increased 41 percent, compared with 12 percent for immigrants from all countries, the data shows.

"The Number 1 reason people are naturalizing is to vote against these elected officials" who support immigrant-enforcement legislation, Magaña said.

The National Association of Latino Elected Officials projects that 360,000 Latinos will vote in November, up 23 percent from 2008, said Hilda Oropeza, the group's Arizona representative.

"If there was any issue that motivated the Latino community it was SB 1070," Oropeza said.

Take Cindy Ruelas, a 23-year-old Tolleson resident and stay-at-home mom. She registered to vote in March. She said she never cared about voting until the immigration laws came along. Several close relatives don't have papers, and the laws hit home.

"That's the main reason I started paying attention," she said.
Slowdown in laws

The nationwide movement to pass Arizona-style immigration laws has subsided, said Muzaffar Chishti, who tracks state immigration laws for the Migration Policy Institute, a think tank.

More than two dozen states introduced legislation similar to SB 1070.

The laws passed in five states: Alabama, Georgia, Indiana, South Carolina and Utah. All have been partially or wholly blocked by the courts, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

This year, lawmakers in Kansas, Missouri, Mississippi, West Virginia and Tennessee introduced similar bills, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Some have failed; others are pending.

The main reason for the decrease, Chishti said, is states are waiting to see what happens to Arizona's law at the Supreme Court.

But other factors are also playing a role, he said: outcry from business communities, growing grass-roots opposition from immigrant and Latino groups, fears of boycotts and concerns raised by police that the laws undermine trust with immigrants.

"There has been a considerable slowdown and a considerable lack of success," Chishti said.


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