Mexicans are wary of both U.S. candidates
by Chris Hawley and Sergio Solache - Aug. 20, 2008 12:00 AM
Republic Mexico City Bureau
GUADALAJARA, Mexico - Like many Mexicans, Jaime Reyes is a little apprehensive about the coming U.S. presidential election.

"Whoever wins, it could be bad for us," said Reyes, a salesman in the western city of Guadalajara. "The Republicans seem like they're anti-immigrant, and (Barack) Obama is against free trade. I don't think either is good."

It's a common sentiment in Mexico, as the slumping U.S. economy and the effects of the 2001 terrorist attacks make the relationship between the United States and its southern neighbor more complicated than ever.
Mexicans are still bitter about George W. Bush, a Texan who took office in 2000 promising a new kind of partnership with Mexico. Instead, Bush has overseen an unprecedented fortification of the border and a crackdown on illegal Mexican immigrants.

"It was thought that there was definitely going to be a (U.S.) foreign policy that was favorable to Mexico, and that relationship lasted about five days," said José Luis Orozco, an international-relations professor at the National Autonomous University of Mexico.

In general, Mexicans favor Democrat Obama over Republican John McCain. A June poll of 1,000 Mexicans by Mitofsky Consulting indicated that 30.6 percent supported Obama and 6.3 percent favored McCain, with most undecided. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.The U.S. election is coming at a critical time for Mexico, as the administration of President Felipe Calderón is trying to crack down on drug smugglers, create jobs and keep the decline in the U.S. economy from seeping over the border. Immigration, trade, law enforcement and border security are key issues.


Immigration

More than 9 million Mexican-born people live in the United States, both legally and illegally, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The $24 billion that they send to their families in Mexico annually serves as an important economic cushion, helping Mexico weather downturns and damping social unrest.

In 2005, McCain co-wrote the Secure America and Orderly Immigration Act with Senate Democratic colleague Edward Kennedy. The bill would have created a class of more flexible, three-year work visas that would make it easier for foreigners to seek legal work in the United States.

The bill was endorsed by President Bush but died in Congress. In a visit to Mexico City in July, McCain said that he still believed in immigration reform but that Americans have no appetite for it now.

"I believe we must have comprehensive immigration reform," he said. "The American people want our borders secured first."

Obama's official platform also calls for immigration-law reform, including "a responsible path to earned citizenship for undocumented workers and their families."

During a speech in May, Obama also urged tougher punishment for employers of illegal immigrants and vowed to increase aid to Latin America to help countries create jobs for their citizens.

With both men promising immigration reform, the real question is who is more committed, said Analicia RuÃ*z, an expert on U.S.-Mexican relations at Anáhuac University in Mexico City.

"On one hand, McCain would be good for Mexico because he comes from a border state, and he knows the policies needed . . . to legalize migrants," RuÃ*z said. "However, Republicans tend to have a hard-line posture, and when it comes to reaching agreements, they tend to sacrifice those goals for others."

During his visit to Mexico City, McCain said he believed Congress would pass an immigration-reform bill next year, no matter which candidate won.


Trade

Mexico is the United States' third-biggest trade partner after Canada and China, and the tariff exemptions and other perks it enjoys under the North American Free Trade Agreement have helped triple the Mexican gross domestic product over a dozen years.

Now, Mexico would like to go beyond NAFTA toward a closer, European Union-style alliance. Workers could easily move among countries, trucks could travel freely across borders, and licenses and certifications would be respected in all three nations.

Some experts think McCain offers the best prospects because of his strong support for NAFTA. In June, he visited Colombia and urged the United States to pass a similar trade pact with that country.

However, many U.S. factory workers have seen their jobs go to Mexico. During a debate in February, Obama said he would threaten to withdraw from NAFTA if Mexico and Canada did not agree to more protections for U.S. workers.

Obama supported a free-trade pact with Peru in 2007, saying it contained strong labor protections. But he opposed the 2005 Dominican Republic/Central America Free Trade Agreement and the proposed Colombia trade agreement, which has stalled in Congress.

"Obama is not looking for a deepening of NAFTA but protection for the interests of U.S. workers," said Ramón López, a professor of international relations at the University of the Americas in Puebla. "In that sense, he may not be best for Mexico."


Border security, crime

Crime is also a major issue for Mexico. In December, Calderón began dispatching tens of thousands of soldiers to drug hotspots in an effort to disrupt the smugglers who supply the U.S. with cocaine, marijuana and meth. The traffickers have responded with a wave of violence.

Both candidates have applauded a $1.4 billion aid package that the U.S. pledged to Mexico and Central American countries to help them fight drug gangs.

Obama has promised to expand the Mérida Initiative to other Latin American and Caribbean countries. He also pledged to loosen secrecy laws regarding gun-tracing data and reinstate the assault-weapons ban, something Mexican officials have pleaded for. Most guns used by Mexican gangs are bought in the U.S., Mexican prosecutors say.

McCain opposes assault-weapons bans, as well as measures aimed at making gun manufacturers responsible for crimes committed with their products. However, he also sponsored a bill that would expand background checks at gun shows.

The Republican also has pledged to spend more money on border security, boosting the budgets of U.S. attorneys in border states and deploying more unmanned airplanes along the border. He would also require border-state governors to certify that the border is secure.

The emphasis on border security irks many Mexicans, but they are grateful for the help against drug traffickers. "We really need more support from the U.S. government in this fight (against drug gangs)," López said.

Still, much will depend on events after the president-elect takes office, he said, noting that the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks showed how quickly Mexico can slip to a back burner.

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