Thread: Report: Illegal immigration appears to be in a decline

Report: Illegal immigration appears to be in a decline
Jul. 30, 2008 01:00 PM

Washington Post

WASHINGTON - The flow of illegal immigrants into the country appears to have declined over the last year, at least partly due to the chilling effect of stepped-up enforcement, according to a report released Wednesday by a Washington think tank that advocates stricter limits on immigration.

The study by the Center for Immigration Studies based its findings on Census data indicating that the number of less-educated, working-aged Hispanic immigrants - defined as 18- to 40-year-olds with a high school diploma or less - has dropped by more than 10 percent, or about 830,000 people since last August.
Previous research suggests that a large share of less-educated foreigners are in the country illegally, and that they make up the bulk of the illegal immigrant population. Furthermore, while earlier declines in the number of these Hispanic immigrants have been linked to a rise in their unemployment rate, the current drop-off began last year almost immediately after the Congress abandoned legislation to legalize undocumented immigrants and six months before there was any significant rise in their unemployment rate.

During the same period, the number of foreigners who were more educated or non-Hispanic - and therefore far less likely to be illegal immigrants - continued to rise or hold steady.

"The evidence is consistent with the idea that at least initially more robust enforcement caused the number of illegal immigrants to decline significantly," said Steven A. Camarota, one of the study's authors. "Some people seem to think illegals are so permanently anchored in the United States that there is no possibility of them leaving. ... This suggests they're not correct. Some significant share might respond to changing incentives and leave."

Several demographers who specialize in estimating the illegal immigrant population expressed concern about the limits of the study's methodology, but said they found the possibility that the illegal immigrant population is decreasing to be plausible.

Determining the actual amount of that decline, however, is a far more controversial matter.

The Census does not ask foreigners their immigration status. Instead, both government and independent researchers use a variety of techniques to estimate the number of immigrants in the country illegally - for instance subtracting the number of visas, permanent residency permits and naturalizations granted each year from the total number of foreigners counted by the Census. The difference between the number of foreigners that can be accounted for through such records and the total number tallied by the Census is considered to be the size of the illegal immigrant population.

Camarota and co-author Karen Jensenius took a different approach: first calculating the previous ratio between the number of less-educated Hispanic immigrants counted by the Census and the total illegal immigrant population estimated by government researchers, then applying that ratio to the new, lower number of less-educated, working-aged Hispanic immigrants in order to come up with a new estimate for the total illegal immigrant population. According to their calculations, from August 2007 to May of this year, the illegal immigrant population declined by about 11 percent, from a high of 12.49 million to about 11.17 million.

One drawback of Camarota's and Jensenius's method, said Jeffery S. Passel of the Pew Hispanic Center, a widely regarded expert on estimating the illegal immigrant population, is that "it tracks something that correlates with the number of illegal immigrants rather than the actual number of illegal immigrants, and it assumes the correlation remains the same."

"If the ratio (between the number of less-educated Hispanic adults and the total number of illegal immigrants) has changed, then the trend could be very different," Passel said.

Even more contentious is the question of what, if anything, the study's findings indicate about the impact that recent national and local immigration policies may have had on the size of the illegal immigrant population. Since December, the unemployment rate of less-educated working-age Hispanics has risen from 4.93 percent to 7.06 percent, making it that much more difficult to determine whether the continued decline in their population during this period was the result of anything beyond basic economics.

But Camarota and Jensenius suggest that the six-month decline that occurred after the failure of the legalization legislation and before the rise of these workers' unemployment rate is one of several examples of a link between immigration policy and immigrant choices. They note, for instance, that starting in May 2007, when Congress's consideration of the legalization plan began receiving widespread media attention, the number of less-educated, working-aged Hispanics began to rise.

"I call it the amnesty hump," said Camarota. Though he noted that the population increase during this period may not have been statistically significant, "it seems that what was happening was that fewer illegal immigrants left than might otherwise have done so because they were hoping to qualify for legalization."

Also up for interpretation is the degree to which the drop in the number of less-educated Hispanic adults (and, by inference, illegal immigrants) was the result of fewer foreigners entering the country or more of them leaving. The U.S. Border Patrol, for example, has reported a 20 percent decline in apprehensions along the southern border over the 2007 fiscal year - a possible indication that fewer illegal immigrants are attempting to enter. Camarota and Jensenius note that Census data does not answer the question. But they suggest that if less-educated Hispanic adults were not leaving in greater numbers than before, their total population would merely grow more slowly, not decline steeply.

Among those who are leaving, the vast majority are likely doing so on their own power. Despite a surge in worksite raids and other enforcement measures, as well as decisions by various states and local governments to train their police to identify illegal immigrants, only 285,000 immigrants were removed from within the United States in 2007 - and many of those were formerly legal immigrants who lost their status after committing a crime.

http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/ ... 30-ON.html

Zeezil posted this earlier but I have to repeat my response to Passel's statement: "it tracks something that correlates with the number of illegal immigrants rather than the actual number of illegal immigrants, and it assumes the correlation remains the same." What?!! Maybe Passel doesn't realize that many Americans can read English, have a brain to figure out this quote makes not one whit of sense. Is there a point? What is the difference between the number of illegal aliens versus the actual number of illegals, since no one has a clue how many are here to begin with. Speak English and make some sense. Oh, maybe his misspoke or was taken out of context.

I know someone who works for a research company and she said she is finding out that alot of illegals are in fact leaving and going back to their countries. She said some of them just picked up and left without taking some of their things. The word was that some went back home to start their own businesses. Hopefully this trend continues!

But don't forget this warning from the CIS:

"There is no way to know whether the current trend will continue. Future enforcement efforts as well as the state of the economy will likely determine if the number of illegal immigrants continues to drop. Both presidential candidates have recently stated their strong commitment to legalizing those in the country illegally. Pronouncements of this kind may have consequences. When Congress was considering legalizing illegal immigrants last summer, there is evidence that the illegal population grew. When that legislation failed to pass, the illegal population began to decline rapidly. It may be that the repeated promises of legalization by both candidates in recent weeks will encourage more illegal immigrants to enter the country or encourage those already in the country, who might otherwise leave, to stay in the hopes of being awarded legal status."

Well I guess we have NO hope!

All this and yet our braindead Congress tried to remove E-Verify behind our backs because it was having a negative impact on illegals. They know it's working, they can't refute it so they tried to get rid of it.

I really hope the tide is turning. It feels like it, but I don't want to get my hopes up too much though. We got to watch these snakes in Congress like a hawk.