http://www.americanchronicle.com/articl ... leID=20408

2008 Presidential Contender: Duncan Hunter
Terry L. Mitchell


February 8, 2007
California Congressman Duncan Hunter announced in October that he would be seeking the 2008 Republican presidential nomination. He recently made his candidacy official. Now in his 14th term in the House, Hunter's district includes portions of San Diego. From 2003 through 2006, he was chairman of the powerful House Armed Services Committee, a role he had to relinquish in January due to the Democratic takeover of the House.

Hunter prides himself on being in the mold and tradition of Ronald Reagan, who was first elected President the same year Hunter was first elected to Congress. Although many believe he came in on Reagan's coattails (pulling an upset victory over an incumbent Democrat by a narrow margin), he has won reelection by wide margins ever since. In addition, he continues to be popular with ''Reagan Democrats," consistently getting over 70% of the total Democratic vote.



Hunter is a socially conservative Baptist who is very popular with evangelicals and the far right. He strongly opposes abortion, embryonic stem cell research, and gay marriage. In addition, he favors a crackdown on illegal immigration and the construction of a fence along the entire border between the U.S. and Mexico. In spite of this, he usually draws around 60% of the Hispanic vote in his district. His continued unwavering support of the war in Iraq also makes him popular with neoconservatives.

He will likely have to compete with Mitt Romney, Sam Brownback, Mike Huckabee, and Tom Tancredo for social conservative votes in the primaries. In order to be successful, he will need to convince voters in Iowa and New Hampshire that he is the most genuine and most viable social conservative in the race. So far, he is the only Republican candidate who has purchased TV time in New Hampshire. This is obviously an attempt to build up some early name recognition, of which he currently has little or none.

Although a tremendous long-shot, there is a scenario in which he could conceivably win the nomination. He would first have to come out of Iowa and New Hampshire as the leading or possibly only social conservative still in the race. At a minimum, he would need to put Huckabee away in those two early states. Otherwise, the former Arkansas Governor would likely lock him out of the southern conservative vote, effectively ending his candidacy when the southern block of primaries is held. However, with Huckabee gone and Hunter the top social conservative contender remaining in the pack, he would be poised to perform well in the South, as well as his native West. Winning the South is obviously part of Hunter's required scenario for capturing the nomination. It was no accident that he made his official announcement in South Carolina.