Thread: Data is fuzzy in debate on migrants

baltimoresun.com
Data is fuzzy in debate on migrants
Assessing burden, benefits of illegal immigration is hard
By Kelly Brewington
Sun reporter
March 10, 2008

As the number of illegal immigrants swells nationwide, state and local governments are grappling with a fiercely debated question: Are illegal immigrants a burden on or a benefit to local economies?

The answer: It depends on whom you ask.

States, demographers and interest groups have tried to quantify the fiscal costs versus the benefits of illegal immigration, but there's no consensus on the answers. Those concerned about illegal immigration conclude new arrivals are a drain on public services, citing the growth of the school-age population and the mounting ranks of the uninsured. Meanwhile, others contend that illegal immigrants swell state coffers by paying millions in taxes and fees without receiving many services available to legal residents.

In Maryland, where the illegal immigrant population is estimated at between 200,000 and 268,000, a legislative proposal to deny illegal immigrants any service not mandated by the federal government has drawn criticism from advocates who argue there's no evidence of abuse.

As a result, all sides of the debate are eager for more data.

"We've looked at studies across the country and we are convinced ... that immigrants are a benefit," said Kim Propeack, director of community organizing and political action for the immigrant-rights group CASA of Maryland. "But we are hungry for Maryland-specific information because we consistently confront these assumptions about the lack of contributions."

The group supports a bill sponsored by Sen. Richard Madaleno, a Montgomery County Democrat, that would examine legal and illegal immigration in Maryland.

"We need to look at the complexity of the immigration situation to understand exactly what sort of immigrant population we are seeing in Maryland," said Madaleno, adding that immigrant families often include foreign nationals in the U.S. illegally and children who are U.S. citizens.

Critics are confident the data will support the argument for curtailing services to illegal immigrants.

"This is an expense being borne by the citizens of Maryland," said House Minority Leader Anthony J. O'Donnell, a Southern Maryland Republican who sponsored the bill to cut off services. "We have limited resources and those resources should be quantified. The legislature has a right and a responsibility to know these costs."

Nationwide, each side picks the calculations that support its views, demographers said.

"You can pretty much predict what the results of the study are going to be by who is doing it," said Jeffrey S. Passel, a Pew Hispanic Center demographer who helped write a 2006 study on the tax contributions of immigrants in the Washington area. "There really is not an accepted methodology for assessing the costs in particular and the benefits in general."

Simply asking the question poses a philosophical debate, he said. "It's not the kind of question we ask of anybody else. No one asks: What is the benefit of society to having babies? So there are lots of ways to look at this."

In fact, determining how many illegal immigrants live in the United States is a mathematical puzzle. While the most-often cited estimate is 12 million, figures range from 7 million to 20 million.

"It's really easy when you don't know the number of illegal immigrants to come up with a wide range of the impact," said Randy Capps, a researcher at the nonpartisan Urban Institute in Washington.

Some studies include the citizen children of illegal immigrants in calculations, noting that they are entitled to public benefits such as welfare, food stamps and Medicaid, even when their illegal immigrant parents are not. These reports suggest that immigrants cost the government more in services than they contribute in taxes.

"If you want to make illegals look good in the calculation, you don't count the costs of their children and you ignore the population-based costs such as the wear and tear on roads and bridges," said Steven A. Camarota, director of research at the Center for Immigration Studies, a Washington think tank that favors restricting immigration, both legal and illegal.

In a report last year, Camarota estimated that 39,000 illegal immigrants ages 5 to 17 are enrolled in Maryland public schools. National averages put the cost per pupil at $10,000, he said. Add the citizen children of illegal immigrants, and the figure rises to 57,000, or 6 percent of total enrollment, he said.

Other observers agree that education is the largest cost of illegal immigrants. But they argue that the issue of whether to educate children is not a simple price analysis, but a question of societal values. It's also the law. The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled that states must educate illegal immigrants.

"It may be one thing when you are talking about health care and corrections, but when you talk about investing in childrens' education, you can make the case that the dollars you spend will contribute to the economy in the long run," said Capps, with the Urban Institute.

On health care, Camarota found about 165,000 uninsured illegal immigrants and U.S.-born children of illegal immigrants in Maryland. The conventional wisdom is that uninsured illegal immigrants seek care in emergency rooms, driving up costs. But determining what share of medical services they use is tricky. In fact, Camarota and other demographers have found uninsured illegal immigrants tend to cost less taxpayer money than citizens who lack insurance.

Overall, however, Camarota says the immigrants arriving in the U.S. in recent years - legal and illegal - tend to have less education and earn lower wages, making their reliance on public services more likely.

Meanwhile, other studies find that illegal immigrants contribute their share in income, property and sales taxes, and tend to earn higher wages the longer they are here.

Last month, a report by the nonpartisan Commonwealth Institute in Richmond, Va., revealed that the state's 250,000 to 300,000 illegal immigrants earn between $2.6 billion and $3.1 billion in income, paying between $260 million and $311 million in state taxes. When the payroll taxes of employers are considered, the figures for taxes paid increase to between $379 million and $453 million.

Virginia, a state that has recently become a destination for illegal immigrants, is embroiled in heated debates over the issue. Prince William County launched a crackdown last week, cutting off public services to illegal immigrants and encouraging local police to check the immigration status of anyone suspected of breaking the law.

"What has been happening in the debate in Virginia is no one has been acknowledging the tax side of the equation," said Michael Cassidy, executive director of Commonwealth Institute.

Other states' results reveal a mixed bag. In December 2006, the Texas comptroller found illegal immigrants cost the state $1.16 billion in services, but paid $1.58 billion in taxes and fees. Counties, however, felt the impact, spending $1.44 billion for uncompensated health care and law enforcement costs.

Fiscal costs and benefits aside, many believe illegal immigrants contribute to the growing economy, flocking to prosperous areas and participating in the boom by working and spending money, Capps said.

"You could do a study either way, and find a modest cost or benefit to the taxpayer, and you'd be missing the big picture, which is the huge benefit to the economy," he said. "There is certainly a big economic benefit. As long as there is a growing economy."
kelly.brewington@baltsun.com

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/local/ ... rint.story

BS, the effects of illegals are easy to see, just look at the national test case California.