Thread: Fuzzy illegals math

Fuzzy illegals math

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsbu ... 10647.html
By Dimitri Vassilaros
TRIBUNE-REVIEW
Monday, June 4, 2007

There might be a very good reason why the high-profile bipartisan shills for the new illegal alien amnesty bill in the U.S. Senate have not mentioned the cost.

Even with the fuzzy math frequently used inside the Beltway to rationalize government's irrational spending, something about this pathway to citizenship doesn't add up.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates it will cost $70 billion to $75 billion to implement the backdoor amnesty scheme touted by President George W. Bush and Sen. Ted Kennedy. That's about twice the amount estimated by Mr. Kennedy's office.

Whatever that number, it's peanuts compared to the $207 billion it could cost the Social Security system. That's based on a study by the Senior Citizens League, a nonprofit organization based in Virginia claiming 1.2 million members.

America has "totalization" agreements with other developed nations to ensure that citizens of one country are not taxed twice when they work in the other. In an apples-to-apples world, the system works.

But in 2004, U.S. and Mexican negotiators agreed on a totalization compact that awaits Mr. Bush's signature. Congress will have a brief window of opportunity to review the deal after the ink dries. This one is apples to bitter limes because of the economic disparities of the two populations and the estimated 12 million to 20 million Mexicans that are here illegally.

If the illegals get any form of American citizenship, they and their families might be eligible for Social Security benefits. And that would hasten the inevitable collapse of FDR's Ponzi scheme.

A spokeswoman in Kennedy's office said the proposed system would take from $20 billion to $40 billion and didn't know why there was no mention of the cost to the Social Security system. She said she would get back to me with an answer. That was over a week ago. No word yet.

A Bush administration spokesman replied by e-mail that the bill "prohibits illegal immigrants who come out of the shadows from receiving Social Security benefits for work under a fraudulent Social Security number. Going forward, illegal immigrants who come out of the shadows and earn legal status must work 10 years legally (40 quarters) before they become eligible for Social Security."

Shannon Benton, executive director of the seniors organization, is not reassured.

The Social Security Protection Act of 2004 says that if immigrants have "work authorized" Social Security numbers they eventually could file claims, Ms. Benton said in her e-mail reply. Benefits would be calculated based on all earnings, legal and illegal.

"One of our concerns is ... that no one has thought of this, frankly," she said. The Bush statement is "boilerplate," designed to create as few political waves as possible, she says. "And even in the remote circumstance it's true, it's important to note that until a bill becomes final, all of this can change until the last second."

Given how the Bush administration defines "mission accomplished," whether controlling Iraq or Medicare costs, it's hard to believe the best and the brightest inside the White House gave totalization any thought let alone crunched the numbers.

Mr. Bush's pathway to citizenship could be the road to ruin for American retirees.

Dimitri Vassilaros is a Trib editorial page columnist. His column appears Sundays, Mondays and Fridays. Call him at 412-380-5637. E-mail him at dvassilaros@tribweb.com.

When a senate office gave me an estimate I would double the cost and start working out year budgets to obtain the funds I needed. When government costs estimates are done, they are always under what it is going to cost otherwise nothing would ever get funded. Be careful of any figure you see coming out of CBO or a government office. They have been created based upon asumptions that are narrow and will not support the intent of the program. Every government office does it so that they can obtain funding, every senator's office does it so that they can obtain funding for pet projects. Every american needs to work in DC for a government office to find out how your government is not working.

They not only do not no the cost, there is no way to get the cost when they have no Idea how many people they are speaking about, I will almost bet it is 3 times higher than they lead us to believe. This government never estimates anything correctly.