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Dole's recruitment of new Republican candidates may get harder
Problems surrounding White House shifts focus
By Mary M. Shaffrey
JOURNAL WASHINGTON BUREAU
Saturday, October 29, 2005


WASHINGTON

It's not easy being a Republican legislator in Washington these days.

It's even harder to be a Republican leader responsible for recruiting candidates to run in 2006.

"This is the single worst election cycle for Republicans since they took over control of both houses (in 1994)," said Larry Sabato, the director for the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

It wasn't so a year ago when U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole, R-N.C. won the job of chairwoman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

As the person responsible for recruiting Republican challengers and re-electing Republican senators, Dole must contend with a torrent of bad news, from plummeting support for the war in Iraq, indictments of top Republicans and other scandals.

Only one Republican senator - Sen. Bill Frist of Tennessee, the Senate majority leader - has announced his intention to retire, but several others are seen as vulnerable.

Although observers assess Republicans' chances as weak in the midterm elections, Dole remains upbeat. She says that voters are more concerned with local issues than with the controversies in Washington.

"We are more than a year out from the campaign, and there are always external circumstances that are there from any election cycle," Dole said yesterday. "In terms of moving forward, the positive (Republican) agenda is going to take hold."

But even as she spoke, the topic of the day was news that I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby, Vice President Dick Cheney's chief of staff, had resigned after being indicted in connection with the leak of the name of a CIA operative.

Dole declined to elaborate on Libby's resignation and indictment other than to say she wants the justice system to take its course.

Of Harriet Miers, who withdrew her Supreme Court nomination Thursday after failing to win support from many Republicans, Dole said, " This chapter is over. Now we move on."

Republican pollsters and political experts, though, say that average voters would be hard pressed not to pay attention to problems that the party faces in Washington.

Dole would not be to blame for a loss of Republican seats in the midterm elections, analysts said. But it is hard to separate the president's political troubles from the party itself. That makes Dole's job much harder. Republicans hold a 55-45 seat majority in the Senate.

Republicans have been unsuccessful in getting their first-choice candidates to run in 2006 in such states as Florida, Michigan and Washington. In Rhode Island, Dole was unable to sway a conservative local mayor to abandon his challenge of Sen. Lincoln Chafee.

Those familiar with these races and the national landscape say that these failures have less to do with Dole's effectiveness than they do with the political environment.

"The president's approval rating is in the 40s and the Iraq war is not going well," said Tony Fabrizio, a national Republican consultant who worked on the presidential campaign of Dole's husband - former Sen. Bob Dole - in 1996.

Whit Ayers, another national Republican consultant agreed.

"This is a very difficult climate to recruit Republican challengers," Ayers said. "The president's job approval is at its nadir (and) there is significant frustration around (his) Katrina response, gas prices and angst about Iraq. All things considered this is not an ideal time to be recruiting, (so) given that background, her job has been commendable."

Florida presents the most difficult challenge for Dole. So far, U.S. Rep. Katherine Harris, a former Florida secretary of state -whom many credit with helping Bush win the state in 2000 - is the only announced candidate to challenge Sen. Bill Nelson. Dole has not endorsed Harris. Instead, she has tried unsuccessfully to persuade other candidates - including Gov. Jeb Bush, former congressman Joe Scarborough and retired Gen. Tommy Franks - to run. She has said that the party is still negotiating with other candidates, but she declined to name them.

"Our job is to make sure that we have the best possible candidate to challenge a Democrat. There are still people talking about it," said Dole, who would not put a timetable on completing the recruitment campaign.

Brian Nick, a spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, was more blunt.

"If Katherine Harris is the nominee, we lose," he said.

To date, Republican fundraising lags slightly behind Democrats'. According to the latest financial-disclosure reports, the party has raised about $25 million for 2006, about $3 million less than Democrats.

Dole said she is happy with the fundraising effort so far. As the first woman to head the Republican senatorial committee, she is working hard to tap the financial resources of female CEOs and other female business leaders.