http://www.catholic.org/national/nation ... p?id=21934

Europe said to be in ‘death spiral’ using immigration to grow population

By Emily Stimpson
11/8/2006
Our Sunday Visitor

HUNTINGTON, Ind. (Our Sunday Visitor) – "It's a death spiral." That's how George Weigel, senior fellow at the Washington, D.C.-based Ethics and Public Policy Center, describes the problem of Europe's low birthrate. And with countries such Spain, Germany and Belgium slated to lose more than a quarter of their population over the next 45 years, he's not exaggerating.

In an attempt to reverse this spiral, European countries are turning to immigration for help. At the same time, the debate continues in the United States over the controversial issue.

More than a decade has passed since public policymakers first raised the alarm about historically low fertility rates throughout Europe, and the response in countries such as Sweden, Norway and France has been to offer increasingly generous financial incentives to encourage childbearing.

From state-sponsored daycare to monthly stipends for stay-at-home moms, most Western European governments have spared no expense trying to convince their citizens to reproduce. But it's not working.

Despite the fact that their governments are effectively paying them to become parents, Europeans are still only having an average of 1.4 children, said Carl Haub, senior demographer for the Population Reference Bureau. And that, he noted, is well below the level considered optimal for population replacement, which is 2.1 children per woman.

'Societal shock'

With their populations continuing to decline and with large numbers of jobs – particularly manufacturing and service jobs – needing to be filled, opening up their doors to immigrants from Eastern Europe and the Third World seems a viable and quick solution.

According to Haub, Ireland and England are actively recruiting Poles, and France has allowed large numbers of Vietnamese and North Africans into the country. Spain and Italy also recently launched guest-worker programs, while Austria, Germany and a number of other European states have already extended full immigration rights to citizens of the former Soviet bloc, something that wasn't supposed to happen until 2011 according to the provisions under which those countries were admitted to the European Union.

The upside of these newly liberalized immigration policies is that jobs are getting filled. But it's also setting up many countries for what Haub calls "societal shock."

"Europe has never had the practice of incorporating entirely new population groups into their culture," he said. "It's going to take a lot of adjusting." More in some cases than others.

A future 'Eurabia'

According to Weigel, who recently wrote The Cube and the Cathedral: Europe, America and Politics Without God (Basic Books, $23), the intra-EU immigration may bring about some changes – such as English Catholic churches filling up with Polish immigrants and those same Polish immigrants later returning home with a better understanding of the workings of democracy. But it is the immigrants who come from outside of Europe, many of them Muslim, that will potentially change Europe as we know it.

"More than a few of them have no intention of becoming a part of European culture," said Weigel. "Instead they intend to change it and make it a reflection of their own experience. There is a reason many scholars are talking about Europe become Eurabia by the end of the 21st century."

Some parts of Western Europe, however, won't have to wait that long. According to Weigel, in France there are already sizable territories where Muslim immigrant populations flagrantly flaunt French laws, with honor killings and forced marriages routinely taking place.

The same sort of "Shariah enclaves" can also be found in parts of the United Kingdom, with London now often dubbed "Londinistan" by political pundits and local residents alike.

Future of Christianity

Even more problematically, unlike their European counterparts, these Muslim immigrants are having babies and lots of them – which is why Bishop Andreas Laun, the auxiliary bishop of Salzburg, Austria, is quick to point out that if the Muslims want to take over Europe, acts of terrorism aren't really necessary.

Instead, he said, "they must merely wait patiently for a few decades. Then they will have the majority and can claim power democratically.

"Christians will presumably survive," he continued, "but only as an oppressed minority." The bishop's scenario may sound far-fetched, but according to Peter Colosi, who teaches philosophy for Franciscan University of Steubenville's study-abroad program in Austria, and who has lived in Europe for more than a decade, it's happened before.

"In the fourth century, during St. Augustine's lifetime, there were 300 or 400 Catholic dioceses in North Africa," said Colosi. "Today there are three. The same thing that happened in North Africa could easily happen in Europe, unless we do something about it."