http://www.economist.com/world/na/displ ... id=6802645

Immigration

Not criminal, just hopeful

Apr 12th 2006 | WASHINGTON, DC
From The Economist print edition


Reform of America's immigration laws has stalled. Will this week's huge demonstrations revive or smother it?

IN FRANCE the nation's youth marched for the right to work half-heartedly and not be sacked. By contrast, hundreds of thousands of immigrants in more than 100 American cities marched for a chance to work hard and not be deported. The French demonstrators forced their government to back down (see article). The mostly Latino masses on America's streets, despite impressive numbers, less violence and a worthier cause, are still some way from victory.

Last week, the Senate failed to pass a reform of the country's dysfunctional immigration system. The bill, sponsored by Chuck Hagel of Nebraska and Mel Martinez of Florida, both Republicans, would have combined tougher border controls with a path towards legalisation for most of the estimated 11m illegal immigrants who are already inside the United States. Most senators thought the bill good enough to pass; it was a compromise between more restrictive and more generous proposals. But it was scuppered by obstructionists from both parties just before the Senate closed for a two-week recess.

This week's rallies were to have been a celebration of the law's passage. Instead, the marchers marched to demand its resurrection, or at least the squelching of a House bill, sponsored by James Sensenbrenner, a Republican from Wisconsin, that would make illegal immigration a felony punishable by jail. It would also punish those who help illegal immigrants.

“I just want not to be a criminal,” said Jorge Rodriguez, an undocumented plasterer from El Salvador, one of an estimated 180,000 demonstrators in Washington, DC. Legions of marchers, legal and illegal, echoed his cry. The throng included some native-born Americans, too, marching out of a compassion they feared the Sensenbrenner bill might criminalise. “I teach ESL [English as a second language]” read one placard. Its holder was not touting for customers, though he doubtless would have found plenty. “I am not a criminal” read the placard's reverse.

Will the rallies nudge senators into thrashing out a comprehensive reform bill when they get back from their spring break? Or will the sight of so many foreigners making demands of the American government fuel the rage of those who think they have no right to? “My first thought is anger, folks,” said Rush Limbaugh, a popular conservative talk-radio host. “How can they just show up and brazenly demand to be...allowed to be against the law, and nobody does anything about it? Some of you might say, ‘Surround them with INS agents'.”

There are reasons for hoping that calmer voices will prevail. First, the demonstrators have shown themselves sensitive to non-Hispanic America's fears. After complaints that too many Mexican flags appeared at previous marches (which some Americans said hinted at divided loyalties and perhaps even at plans for a stealthy reconquista of the parts of the south-western United States that used to be Mexican), the organisers this time persuaded most flag-carriers to wave the Stars and Stripes. Some formed human pyramids to wave it higher.

Second, the immigrants have aspirations most Americans can relate to. A new survey found that 92% worked, 98% wanted to learn English and 96% were happy to be fingerprinted and subjected to a criminal background check as part of a process that might lead to them becoming legal citizens.

Thirdly, as the marchers put it: “Today we march, tomorrow we vote.” Illegals can't vote, of course, but many have relatives who can. Some politicians, from both parties, are eagerly courting the Latino vote. “I look across this historic gathering and I see the future of America,” boomed Ted Kennedy to the marchers in Washington. Other politicians, mostly Republicans, think there are more votes to be won by promising border fences, mass deportation and other measures to protect the native culture. “We need to take a realistic look at the notion of birthright citizenship,” said J.D. Hayworth, a Republican congressman from Arizona, on NBC's “Meet the Press”.

Polls show that most non-Hispanic Americans think illegal immigration should be curbed. But this rarely determines how they vote, says Tamar Jacoby of the Manhattan Institute, a think-tank. Latinos, by contrast, see anti-immigrant laws as anti-Hispanic, and remember such slights.

Since the Hispanic vote is far from monolithic (unlike the black vote), neither party can take it for granted. But either party could alienate it. Latinos see George “Family values don't stop at the Rio Grande” Bush as sympathetic to their cause. (“He's a good leader,” says Mr Rodriguez, the plasterer.) But they recoil at the nativist wing of his party. Luis Gutierrez, a Democratic congressman from Illinois, summarised the message of the Sensenbrenner bill as: “You're all criminals and we want you to each tell on each other and deport each other.”

Mr Bush has said that immigration reform—including both tougher enforcement and a path to legality—is one of his top priorities. Whether Congress will write a bill worth signing, however, remains to be seen. Ms Jacoby says she hopes Republicans will ask themselves which side of history they want to be on, and Democrats will stop blocking negotiations over details. Or, says Dan Griswold of the Cato Institute, a libertarian think-tank, “It could all go up in flames.”