Thread: The Mexican Presidential Race and Immigration

http://www.newsmax.com/archives/article ... 5715.shtml

The Mexican Presidential Race and Immigration
Allan Wall
Tuesday, May 2, 2006
Mexico is holding its presidential election on July 2, electing a chief executive for a single six-year term. Foremost on many Americans' minds is how the new president will handle an already embroiled immigration issue.

For Mexican citizens, however, the issues are more far reaching. The past few decades have seen great changes in Mexico, as the country has peacefully transformed itself from a one-party state to a multi-party representative government.


From 1929 to the 1980s, nearly all political power was held by the PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party), but in that decade its power was eroding. In 1989 an opposition party won its first governorship; in 1997, the PRI lost its majority in Congress. In 2000, for the first time in 71 years, the PRI lost the presidency when Vicente Fox of the PAN (National Action Party) was victorious.

Whereas in the old days, Mexico's two-chamber Congress was just a rubber-stamp for the executive, today the Congress is not controlled by any party. Instead it has six parties and assorted independent representatives vying for power.

Now the Mexican president must negotiate to pass legislation. Similarly, the Mexican Supreme Court, once controlled by the presidency, is now independent, demonstrating its independence by sometimes ruling against presidential actions.

Press freedom is much greater than before, as pundits and citizens are free to openly criticize the government and the various political parties.

Mexico is no longer a one-party state. But moving from an authoritarian regime to political plurality does not solve all a country's problems. And Mexico is no exception.

Mexico's GDP per capita is $10,000, higher than the world average of $9,300, but only a quarter that of the United States ($41,800).


While about half of Mexico's population lives below the poverty level, Mexico's wealthy class include 10 billionaires.

A high-crime rate means that security is a big problem. Narco-traffickers, supported by Mexican corruption and an insatiable American drug habit, are a threat to law and order.

The presidency of Vicente Fox is drawing to a close. Fox, (a member of the PAN) has handled the financial fundamentals well, keeping inflation down. He has failed, however, to enact significant free market reforms that would unleash Mexico's economic potential. This he leaves for his successor.

This year there are three major candidates, Roberto Madrazo of the PRI (the former ruling party), Felipe Calderon of the right-wing PAN, and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (known by his initials AMLO) of the leftist PRD (the Democratic Revolution Party).

It's been a high-spirited campaign, with the candidates flinging criticisms at each other.

The first debate was held on April 25, but AMLO refused to participate, so it was between Calderon, Madrazo, and two minor-party candidates, Roberto Campa and Patricia Mercado.

Beside policy proposals, there was plenty of mudslinging. Madrazo accused Calderon of corruption and of having accomplished nothing in a previous cabinet post. Calderon pulled out a photograph of Madrazo's apartment in Miami and said he hadn't paid taxes on it.

If nothing else, it was entertaining.

As an American residing (legally) in Mexico, I am careful not to get involved politically. Foreigners are strictly forbidden from involvement in Mexican politics, and can be deported for doing so. But I like to watch.

The candidates all agree that Mexico needs to do better economically, but each says that he is the one to do it.

The PRI's Madrazo wants to support the agricultural sector, develop tourism in rural areas and promote new jobs in the software industry. His roadway campaign signs are not what you'd expect to see in the United States, and make for some pretty incredible reading: "Zero Kidnappings" and "No More Mistreated Women". For Mexico, they are at once relevant and impressive.

PAN's Calderon says that he would be the best candidate to attract investment, which Mexico needs to grow. He also promises to construct a million houses a year, build new cities, lower the price of fertilizer and promote ecotourism for U.S. retirees. Calderon wants to set up a national system of day-care centers for children, lengthen the school day and expand Fox's social programs.

AMLO of the PRD has made more promises than anybody. He promises pensions for the elderly, for students and single mothers. He promises to lower the prices of gas, light, and gasoline. He says he will regularize state abortion laws, and establish more government bureaucracies.

AMLO accuses Calderon's PAN party of not wanting to help Mexico's poor. Madrazo and Calderon have characterized AMLO as a dangerous leftist demagogue. Many in Mexico's business community mistrust AMLO, although he is friends with Carlos Slim, Mexico's richest man (and the world's third- richest). Some view Lopez Obrador as being similar to Venezuela's Hugo Chavez. In fact, Calderon has attempted to link AMLO with Chavez in order to discredit him.

Energy is an important topic in Mexico. Mexico is the world's 5th largest oil producer and 9th largest exporter. But its inefficient and bloated PEMEX monopoly has effectively prevented any competition. The privatization of PEMEX is such a taboo, that no candidate has the courage to propose it. At least, though, Calderon and Madrazo are willing to privatize the production of electricity, thus breaking that monopoly.

Immigration has become one of the hottest topics in the Mexican presidential election.

The way Mexican politicians see it, Mexico should have veto power over how the United States handles immigration. Emigration is a convenient safety valve that enables them to put off making tough decisions for the Mexican economy.

As a result, Mexican candidates are united in their support for amnesty for Mexican illegal aliens in the United States, and they oppose building walls on the border.

AMLO's PRD party platform calls for "…the termination of all threats, arrests, apprehensions, raids and other abuses of the American immigration authorities against the undocumented workers" on U.S. soil, and for the suppression of American groups such as the Minutemen. He has also proposed that the Mexican Congress be enlarged to include legislators who specifically represent Mexicans living in the United States. As for NAFTA, AMLO wants to re-negotiate it, while Calderon wants to expand it into something like the European Union, with free labor movement throughout the North American continent.

AMLO is more popular in the south and east, and Calderon in the north, and each candidate seeks new support in the region in which he is weaker.

AMLO has been the front-runner for months, but recent polls show the race tightening between AMLO and Calderon. An April 25 poll had Calderon ahead of AMLO, 38% to 35%. Given the margin of error, it looks like a virtual tie.

As the election draws to a close, with Madrazo running a distant third in the poll, his support may dissipate to other candidates. Thus, the Madrazo voters could, in effect, determine the next president of Mexico.

Allan Wall (allan39@prodigy.net.mx ) recently returned from a tour of duty in Iraq, and currently resides (legally) in Mexico.

Since Mexico is legalizing Drugs, that should win him alot of votes, it also makes him the biggest drug dealer in the world.

As an American residing (legally) in Mexico, I am careful not to get involved politically. Foreigners are strictly forbidden from involvement in Mexican politics, and can be deported for doing so. But I like to watch.

too bad the citizens of the United States don't have the same privileges as Mexico