http://peer-review.redstate.org/story/2 ... 181057/896

The Case for Jeb! in 2008 Part I
By: PEER Review · Section: Diaries


Jeb! 2008: Part I
This piece is based on the realities of election strategy, not recent trends or polls. In Part I, I discuss possible GOP Primary candidates and one General Election opponent in particular. In Part II my thoughts on Jeb. Thanks for reading. Leave comments if you have thoughts on the strength of any candidates mentioned.

The Case for Jeb in 2008 - Part I

Florida Governor Jeb Bush has certainly been clear regarding his intentions for President in 2008. "No thank you," he says. But for Republicans and conservatives everywhere, this may not be acceptable. Here are a few reasons why.

Jun 28th, 2005: 18:10:57, Rated: 5.00/1



Many Republicans, pundits and insiders are asking themselves, if not Jeb then who? There are plenty of options: Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, Arizona Senator John McCain, Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, Former New York City Mayor Rudi Giuliani, New York Governor George Pataki, Colorado Governor Bill Owens, and Virginia Senator George Allen among others.
All of these candidates have positive traits and sizeable support. Together they have shaped the past five years of American and Republican policy. But any political hack could give a list of reasons not to vote for any member this group. Here's a short glimpse of how it goes.

Condoleezza Rice is a single woman with zero elective experience. There is nothing wrong with being single, or an unelected official, unless you are running for President. If she went home and replaced Arnold Schwarzenegger as the first black female governor of California, then she could return as a contender for President.

Bill Frist is a Washington D.C. insider who, in my opinion, has been a lackluster leader in the U.S. Senate. His southern roots are as strong as Al Gore's in 2000-i.e. given the right set of circumstances and a solid candidate on the left, it's possible he could lose his own state. To be a viable candidate he must make great strides in the public perception of his leadership and that is going to be difficult with the upcoming Supreme Court nomination battle.

John McCain is a joke to party loyalists. He is a centrist, which may help in the general election, but not the primary. His recent indiscretions include participation with the Gang of 14 and campaign finance reform. This doesn't play well with the base or the pajama hadin. Should McCain get a serious look at the presidency against a credible Democratic candidate (if that's even possible), his S&L scandals and rocky history would surely resurface with the MSM. He will be loved by the press during the GOP primary, then the gloves will be off.

Rick Santorum is an ultraconservative Senator who alienates moderates. He will face a strong reelection challenge, and little is known about him outside his state of Pennsylvania. With the upcoming Supreme Court confirmation battles, his in-state challenges, and a growing family, he will have little time to create any positive spin for a presidential campaign.

Rudy Giuliani is always mentioned as a favorite and a leader in the polls, but his pro-choice and socially liberal positions may get in the way. If he can't court the right wing in the primary, then who is going to vote for him? On some issues (e.g., abortion, gay marriage) there is little difference between him and Clinton Democrats. Lots of "experts" and insiders would say he would run right and avoid these positions in the primary. That's just pure fantasy and here's why--without an incumbent candidate (like Vice President Dick Cheney) the primary becomes a free for all, a cage match with no holds barred. Every candidate in the primary will be sure to bring up the former Mayor's pro-abortion and pro-gay marriage positions every time they step in front of a microphone.

If by some chance Giuliani won the GOP nomination, why would a woman choose him over Hillary? What's the difference on the salient issues to females? It's too early for polls to give us an idea of how a race between these two would effect women, but I assure you, political professionals, not pundits, are thinking about this as I write.

Conservatives were talking hard about George Pataki several months ago, but his star is dimming as of late. If he does jump in the race consider this-as the Republican Governor of New York he actually supported tax increases after campaigning to reform NY politics. That's more of the same; and it's not the kind of governing record primary voters look for when selecting a candidate.

For many of you, Bill Owens will bring the following question: "Bill who?" The current Governor of Colorado is a conservative who does what he says. He has worked to cut taxes, reduce the size of government, and introduce real choice in education. Unfortunately, nobody knows him.

Virginia Senator George Allen is a solid conservative with tons of name recognition on the east coast and parts of the south, but not nationally. Plus, he's a Senator and they have not been successful lately.

Other potential candidates include, Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour, Kansas Senator Sam Brownback, Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel, Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford, Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, and Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee.

With the exception of Rice, Giuliani and McCain (whose additional drawbacks are noted above) they all share one big and expensive problem-name ID in mainstream America. Name ID is absolutely essential to winning swing voters and elections.

The GOP and motivated consultants must raise and spend extra money to overcome a lack of name recognition before they can effectively attack the opponent. Each of these candidates may try, and some will last longer than others, but one big reason exists why none of these candidates will measure up--Senator Hillary Clinton.

For Republicans and conservatives alike Senator Clinton represents the perfect storm in a political opponent.

She is a married mother with governing experience. She is a wife of one of the most popular presidents in American history. She fields enough political ties to pull influence city council races in America's major liberal cities. She has contributed to several major congressional races and she will expect reciprocity. Senator Clinton has multiple 527's, and she began her Senate/Presidential bid (unofficially) the day after Senator Kerry conceded. She has money in the bank and can easily raise the $300+ million that may be required to win the presidency in today's world of politics.

There is little doubt the extreme left loves Senator Clinton and would trust her to defend liberal policy. She could declare herself a born again conservative on national television and the left wing would believe it to be strategy. In fact, Hillary is appearing to move to the center of American politics with her recent speeches on abortion and her public appearances with Frist, Gingrich, McCain, Lindsey Graham and other GOP notables. Additionally, her Senate voting record shows her moving toward the right on questions of defense.

On Election Day more women will vote for Clinton than against her; she will probably win the African American vote 8-2 or better; and she can guarantee a huge turnout at the polls. She has a husband who just happens to be a very popular and very recent ex-president who will campaign for her tirelessly. Plus, and this is a big plus, she has name ID that extends beyond American borders--everybody knows Hillary Clinton.
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Come back for The Case for Jeb! in 2008 - Part II

Mr. C

http://peer-review.redstate.org/story/2 ... 22351/5075

The Case for Jeb! in 2008 Part II
By: PEER Review · Section: Diaries


The Case for Jeb in 2008 - Part II
Assuming Senator Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee for President in 2008, then the best Republican strategy for winning in 2008 is simple: have a strategy for winning. If the GOP has to play 27 rounds of poker with eight or more wannabees, then the GOP will lose electoral ground every day to the presumptive Democratic nominee Senator Hillary Clinton. When the primaries are over and it's time to craft a general election strategy the eventual winner will be in a situation with little money and little time to build a compelling case for American voters, much like Kerry-Edwards in 2004.

Jun 30th, 2005: 22:35:01, Not Rated



With primaries in both the Republican and the Democratic parties the MSM will not be dividing coverage equally. The eventual primary winner will be behind in the polls, lacking name ID and lacking money. The solution to this problem is to define a candidate early, support him vigorously, and go on the offensive swiftly.
What does the GOP need to win? Jeb Bush. In my opinion, he is the only logical choice if Hillary is the Democratic nominee and GOP is serious about keeping the White House in 2008.

The GOP needs a candidate who can raise $300-400 million. Is there anyone who doesn't believe every single donor who gave $300+ million to George in 2004 wouldn't also give that much to Jeb? Or more? If a GOP candidate has to run against Hillary and Bill, what better combination than George and Jeb? In the run up to the 2000 primaries many in the base of the Republican Party (i.e., donors) wanted Jeb, not George. He is the Barry Goldwater of our generation. No other Republican candidate can match Jeb's credentials, grassroots, network, or fundraising.

After four years of the war on terrorism and seemingly uncontrollable government growth, the GOP needs a candidate who is credible when he says he will reduce the size of government. In his second inaugural address Jeb said, "May these [government] buildings one day stand empty, a memorial to a time when government was oversized and not needed." In the six years Jeb has been governor of Florida he has reduced the size of government and cut taxes nearly every year. In addition, state revenues have increased and jobs opportunities have grown--all this while experiencing a national recession and multiple natural disasters. Today, Florida maintains one of the highest state credit ratings in the fifty states.

The GOP needs a candidate with strong ties overseas and is credible on foreign policy, especially trade with Latin America and South America. In addition to established Bush family ties (Saudis, Kuwaitis, and now Iraqis) Jeb works daily with many of the United States largest trade partners. He manages a state that represents a third of all American exports. Jeb has negotiated on behalf of the Free Trade of The Americas (FTTA) and the Central American Free Trade Agreements (CAFTA). Brazil, Mexico, Cuba, and Guatemala are but a few of the Central and South American countries that the United States must work with in the future on trade, immigration, and security.

The GOP needs a candidate with strong Hispanic ties. Jeb is married to Columba, a woman of Mexican descent. His high profile son, George P., is the Ricky Martin of Hispanic politics. Jeb manages a state that deals with immigration issues from virtually every Hispanic country in the Western Hemisphere. Additionally, he is quite experienced with policy debate regarding the balance between temporary workers, migrant workers, and border security.

The GOP needs a candidate strong on faith, but not fanatical or extremist. Jeb is Catholic, a candidate devoted to his faith but not a right wing ideologue that many swing voters fear.

The GOP needs a candidate who can reach out to centrist and moderate voters. Jeb's stands on issues like Terry Schiavo and parental notification for underage abortions affirm his protection of life and a defense of parents. His very public problems with his daughter's drug addiction make him more human to most middle-America parents.

The GOP needs a candidate strong on education. Jeb's priority as Governor of Florida has always been improving education. He has instituted multiple versions of vouchers and funding mechanisms for alternatives to failing schools. As a result, more schools are improving and children attending failing schools have the opportunity to receive a better education. While, there have been some controversies over vouchers, his policy for education demonstrates a leader willing to take a chance and explore all options.

In light of the failures and criticisms of the voucher programs, the average math and reading test scores in Florida have increased and passage rates have increased. All the more remarkable considering those gains were achieved in spite of a growing school-aged population that outpaces that of the a dozen states combined, and a sizable school-age population that doesn't speak English as a first language.

The GOP needs a candidate who is strong on domestic programs such as Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. In the retirement state that is Florida, Jeb has earned his stripes many times over regarding Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. He took the lead on promoting a more sustainable health insurance program and is working to reform Medicare in Florida in his lame duck year. And an added benefit, nobody knows better how to win the vote among the most active and growing voting population in America, senior citizens.

The GOP needs a candidate whose political and electoral mettle is tested and battle ready. Jeb worked his way through the Florida political system navigating considerable insider networks to build his own coalition of insiders. He has governed through an overzealous right wing legislature and managed the implementation of term limits. No governor in America withstands the slings and arrows of the daily media onslaught that Jeb endures. No governor in America was targeted for attack, or has ever been targeted, such as Jeb was by the DNC in 2002. And no governor in America has defended himself and successfully pushed his priorities such as Jeb.

Among "political" and media pundits the only substantial reason against Jeb is that he is the President's brother; it would be unprecedented in American history and the word "dynasty" would corrupt the process. That's the worst? From a strategic standpoint I want to know my leader. When the campaigning to be President of the United States begins I want all boots on the ground.

If I am a member of the executive GOP-and I'm not-I don't want to spend the next four years parachuting in feelers for this or that potential candidate. I don't want to spend money and time researching the credentials behind the lines of a weak candidate in what is surely an atypical election year. Let's face it; if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee then the GOP has only one chance to end the mystique of the Clintons and solidify their dominance of American politics for a generation. That chance is now.

Governor Jeb Bush is the only Republican with the requisite name ID, governing experience, conservative credentials, political ties and fundraising ability to even compete with the Clintons. He is term limited out of office in 2006 giving him two years without obligation to elected office.

He may not like it, but the solution for the GOP is to draft Jeb Bush now and start the campaign, behind the scenes, and for real. The race for the GOP primary should be over by the summer of 2006 and Jeb Bush should be the GOP candidate for president in 2008.

< Interesting suggestion from Reid (3 comments) | CAFTA: Senate passes 54-45 (17 comments) >


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The Case for Jeb! in 2008 Part II | 5 comments (5 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
I know- he is a perfect candidate By: scorpio

except for that nasty pesky little problem - his last name.
I know this has already been hammered to the point of exaustion, but let me digress:

If nominated, he could be the third Bush in the last 20 years to be elected, following his father and brother. That means out of every GOP presidential ticket since 1980, a Bush would be present in seven of those eight. Assuming he runs again in 2012, it would be eight of nine.

To the contrary:

If nominated, Hillary Clinton could be the second Clinton in 20 years to be president, obviously following the (insert random clinton joke here) infamous Billy- Willy Clinton. That means out of every Dem presidential ticket since '80, the Clintons would be on only three of eight. Assuming she runs again in '12 it would be four of nine. Assuming Chelsea runs in 2032(I'm joking)

Also, let us take the Bushes. The ever-lovable George HW, and his two sons, all blood relatives, would be president within a quarter century years. I know the dynasty stuff is crap, but this is starting to become a little out of line. Au contraire, the Clintons, who despite being married are not blood relatives. Also, the Clintons are putting up a distancing act so Hill can run free from Bill in '08 to aviod the obvious stain of "evil conniving witch who happens to be a disgruntled wife of a impeached former president out seeking blood revenge"

With a liberal media and with W already be smeared as King George the 2nd, it won't fly. This is also assuming Hill even runs in 2008, as she could be freezing cats by then. Hell, I could be freezing cats by 2008. But again, I digress.